Democrats Who Don’t Retire Make GOP Takeover Tougher

[babylonsister]

:nopity:

Democrats Who Don’t Retire Make Takeover Tougher
By Greg Giroux, CQ-Roll Call


A lack of competitive open-seat House races in 2010 could complicate Republican efforts to fully maximize a favorable national environment and make large seat gains after back-to-back elections where the political winds were blowing in the opposite direction.

So far, 18 members have announced they are not seeking re-election in 2010 and are running for other office — but only six of those races are currently considered competitive. No member has yet announced an outright retirement, which is unusual; at this point in the 2008 cycle, 14 members had announced their retirement and five others were running for Senate.

The number of members vacating seats in 2010 is certainly much lower than it was in 1994 — when Republicans last won control of the House from Democrats in the first midterm election of a Democratic administration. Next year, comeback-minded Republicans are confident the party will gain seats after big losses in the 2006 and 2008 elections, and they are hoping political elements will come together to produce a wave similar to 1994.

snip//

But with few House Democrats making this Congress their last, Republicans will need to defeat as many incumbents as they can if they want to win back the majority or at least make significant gains. In November 1994, the GOP defeated 34 House Democratic incumbents — much more than the net gain of 18 than the party made in open-seat races. The GOP hasn’t defeated more than five Democratic incumbents in any election cycle since.

more...

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000003248535

[old mark]

1. Like much of GOP "thought" their prediction of victory is based on fiction.

They lie so much they start to believe it, and then build on it.
They will lose several more senate seats, and a larger number in the house, will blame the people who didn't "get the message." Probably go down to single digit support from 25% by 2012.

mark:rofl: