I Think Obama will be ReElected in 2012…

[Junkdrawer]

I also think the Republican Right will take over the House if not both the House and the Senate in 2010. And that will have two effects:

1.) It will allow Obama to play the role of Opposition Leader. He’ll be able to veto some truly dreadful bills and seem heroic obtaining the kind of compromise bills that currently gets him in such trouble with the base.

2.) Memories of the 2010 losses will energize Get-Out-the-Vote drives in 2012. Besides, it looks like Republicans may take a dive again by nominating a Palin-like candidate.

Old Timers who lived through the 1994 Contract-with-America can be forgiven if all this produces a sense of déjà vu.

[timeforpeace]

1. Keep Hope alive.

[Eric J in MN]

2. The RNC Chair is less optimistic.

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Asked if Republicans will retake the House, (Michael) Steele responded: “Not this year.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31163.html#ixzz0cob6cHDh
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[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Deep13]

4. Me too. The Rs have no one...

...and there's really nothing objectionable about him. Those who hold his color against him did not vote for him the last time around.

[CoffeeCat]

5. I wish I was as prescient as you...

Back in 2008, when I was schlomping through snow drifts, trying to get Democrats to the caucuses to
vote for Barack Obama--I never thought I'd be sitting here in January 2010 with a healthcare bill
that was a gift to the health-insurance companies--that contained no reform.

I thought, by now, our party would have made a decent attempt at reform--as they lobby for
a public option, meaningful healthcare reform and changes to a broken system.

I also never thought that Obama would go back on his word and fail to, as he promised, reinstate Habeas Corpus--which
Bush took away and Obama stressed was an important issue for him.

So, hell--what do I know about the future? Maybe you know something I don't.

[KingFlorez]

6. I don't think 2010 will turn out that bad

I think we lose seats in the house, but keep the majority. The Senate is a real longshot for Republicans, they need 11 seats, which would mean holding all of their own while picking up more and that just isn't possible.

[Junkdrawer]

7. Senate is definitely a long shot for Republicans in 2010....

I agree.

[abelenkpe]

8. I agree Obama will be reelected

I think the dems will maintain majority in the house tho. Just because people aren't contributing as much or saying as much doesn't mean they want to vote for the a-holes who brought about the world wide economic calamity we are experiencing. What are republicans gonna run on?

Republican's: "We still want to dismantle social programs, bankrupt government, lower taxes, break up unions, discriminate against minorities and women and de-regulate business?"


All I'm sayin' is their message hasn't changed at all. Republicans suck. Libertarians suck even more. Tea partiers are just embarrassingly stupid. We should be concerned about them and slap down their stupidity loudly and often, but I don't see them winning votes unless people just don't turn up at the polls.

[Junkdrawer]

9. "unless people just don't turn up at the polls." - That was 1994...

The "Religious Right" supposedly got out the vote while demoralized Democrats stayed home.

[abelenkpe]

17. eeek.

Well hopefully that will not happen again. I think that President Obama's blasting the banks and proposed bank tax will help to show that democrats are the party of the people. I'm hoping that there is still time to enact serious financial reform, get health care reform passed, begin working on getting people back to work and that that will energize democrats. It has been a frustrating year so far, but things may turn around yet. It is all a matter of timing.

I'll keep my fingers crossed at least...

[MisterP]

12. well, those policies go beyond the Republicans: they're shared by conservadems, too

that, in fact, is why so many Dems are demoralized and demanding that the system be changed: if it's "dismantle social programs, bankrupt government, lower all taxes, destroy unions, deregulate business and Wall Street, and kill any Muslim we see" vs. "privatize Social Security, continue bankrupting government, slightly raise raxes on the rich, undermine unions, deregulate business and Wall Street, and limit ourselves to only killing Iraqis, Afghanis, Yemenites, and Somalis"--votres against those policies aren't going to choose the second one! complaints against the Dems aren't that they're pre-1988 FDR-LBJ liberals who are compromising too much and going too slow, it's that they're selling us down the river, further ensuring that bankers will be free to kick people out of their jobs and houses, ignoring wages that have been stagnant since 1973, and letting everyone from the Bush era walk on their torture and war crimes. none of this is polemical exaggeration, by the way (as is usually trotted out when someone is accused of the truly enormous crimes).

[MiniMe]

10. They won't take the house or Senate in 2010, but they will make some gains

With Obama, I will be voting for him, again. But a lot of it depends on the employment numbers, or rather the unemployment numbers.

[Junkdrawer]

11. The balance of power will depend on which Democrats lose....

If it's a slim Democratic majority, with lots of Blue Dogs winning reelection, the House will behave like a Republican majority.

[goclark]

14. As a Democrat, I'll be working to elect Democrats

between now and whenever.

I don't like mean spirited people and Democrats are sure better than Rush and Company.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Gonna Be Quite A Stretch About The House...

This would mean Democrats losing over 50 seats...highly unlikely. First, due to the ongoing infighting in the GOOP between their "DLC" better known as the RNC and the teabaggers. If the baggers win some primaries they'll create a major rift in that party...just like what we saw in NY-23. Second...the party's congressional coffers are all but broke...Mikie Steele's fine fundraising has them already in a big hole that will surely mean a lot of underfunded candidates in the fall...of course unless they're already rich. Finally, the GOOP's House poll numbers are worse than the Democrats...Boner ranks alon with Cheney in the 20% popularity range. They're just too far down to win that many seats in one election. I do expect Democrats to lose seats...that's expected when your party has such large numbers along with the White House, but not enough to tip the balance. Even with the Democrats big wins in '06 & '08, they didn't come close to the number the GOOP needs in one election.

The Senate also should remain in Democratic hands. You only have 33 seats up for grabs and there are more GOOP retirees than Democrats. With Dodd stepping down and Blumenthal in, Connecticut looks rather safe as do most other seats. The battle will be in open ones. Here in Illinois, there's already a bloody GOOP primary underway that is sure to hurt whomever wins. There's also opportunities in Florida and New Hampshire. The Democrats who is endangered is Lincoln in Arkansas (no great loss), but again, it'll be a tough haul for the GOOP to pick up 11 seats to recapture the Senate. Mikie Steele even admits it.

Should the Democrats lose like you say, I suspect the affect will not be to energize but to demoralize. As we've seen here on DU, there are plenty of disgruntled...watch the knives come out should there be big losses and it won't bode well for 2012.

This "old timer" doesn't sense 1994...primarily due to the lack of real leadership in the GOOP. Steele is no Gingrich and many people still remember how inept and corrupt the GOOP was in their years of running the House & Senate.

Last but not least is the NIMBY factor...how many people may be upset with the Democrats but they're satisfied with their representative. An incumbent has many advantages in elections and in most elections it's rare to see more than 10% of them to lose. 10% of about 250 seats won't cut it.

But we're 10 months away...a long 10 months.

[Bravo Zulu]

15. The alternatives are unacceptable!

[Bitwit1234]

16. I don't think so...I

KNOW SO.