The manufacturing jobs are not coming back.

[Hugabear]

Let me preface this by saying that manufacturing jobs are not going to come back under the current system of "free trade" agreements.

Over the past two decades, we've watched as more and more companies shift their manufacturing jobs overseas, to take advantage of cheap labor. We've also witnessed as companies purchase cheap foreign goods rather than more expensive domestic products. Corporations are obligated to turn as much profit as possible - not just for themselves, but for their shareholders. Unfortunately, one of the easiest ways to save money is to cut your workforce or take advantage of cheap overseas labor markets. I have personally witnessed this myself over the past few years, as a company I used to work for began buying more and more of their component items from China.

I just don't see how we're going to get these manufacturing jobs back. Sure, many companies may start reporting bigger profits, and it may appear as if the economy is recovering. But as others have mentioned, it is likely to be a jobless recovery. The gap between the upper and lower classes will continue to grow. Yes, there will be more jobs created, but I'm afraid many of these will be lower-paying, non-skilled, most likely non-union, service oriented jobs.

[obliviously]

1. You are probably right.

As much as I hate to say it everyone should start buying made in USA products only but I'm sure that is impossible now days!

[ProgressiveProfessor]

4. Try to buy an American made motorcycle...there simply are not any.

If anyone says Harley-Davidson, prepare for a public spanking. Same with cars.

[Fumesucker]

12. Boss Hoss is made in the USA..

http://www.bosshoss.com/factory_tour.asp

[cherokeeprogressive]

17. God forgive me but that is one BUTT UGLY motorcycle.

V-8? Whoa. Ugly AND dangerous.

I love most things American, but this... I love my Road King. I love my Road King I love my Road King I love my Road King...

[ProgressiveProfessor]

19. Sort of a Hummer of motorcycles in a number of different ways

Huge horsepower but it lacks the drive train to really use it. Handles poorly compared to other bikes when it comes to turning. However, it is great butt jewelery if you are into that kind of thing.

[cherokeeprogressive]

24. I'm thinking you'd strip the teeth from the belt if you twisted the throttle too hard.

Maybe a shaft would be better, but my belt-drive Harley is soooooo smooth.

I had a Ninja way back in the day that had just over a hundred horses. I could smoke the tire if I was waaay over the tank and bars, but I can't imagine what a bike with over three hundred would feel like. The only word I can come up with is overkill. Okay, two words: Overkill and overweight.

[Fumesucker]

21. I didn't realize beauty was one of the requirements..

And besides, it's in the eye of the beholder anyway..

I lust after an ST1100 or a Concours but I don't think I'm getting another motorcycle, my two wheeled adventuring is done on my recumbent bicycle now..

[cherokeeprogressive]

23. No offense intended. Eye of the beholder and all that.

My Road King was the last year to have a "small" engine. 1500cc. I've taken my wife from So. Cal. to San Antonio and northern Idaho on it, with both hard saddlebags stuffed full and a made for biking suitcase on the back. It's all the motorcycle I'll ever need.

Plus, eye of the beholder considered, I think it's beautiful.

[Fumesucker]

28. If I was gonna go for a V twin I'd probably go for this..

I always figured anything worth doing was worth overdoing. :evilgrin:

And Harleys have just gotten too common, I don't like seeing myself every time I turn a corner.

http://www.automotto.org/entry/gunbus-410-clemens-leonhart-creates-a-monster-on-wheels/

[cherokeeprogressive]

30. I just spit my white zin all over the monitor. That would be one hard bike to ride...

Seriously though, I did the cafe thing in the 90's, and it was fun. My 750R was supposed to do 141 out of the box, but the best I could get it to do under my fat ass was 137. I did that three times, had a close call the last time, and decided then and there I was over it.

Two wheels are two wheels. I'll acknowledge you on the road whether you're on a Harley or a cafe bike or anything in between. I don't care. I'll tell you why I'm going to be partial to Harleys for a very long time though. True Story...

On our way to San Antonio, we had a blowout between Phoenix and Tucson on I-10. Luckily, I was able to get the bike stopped before the wobbles became too much to control (though I have to admit I was thinking of angling toward the soft shoulder for a few seconds, but I digress). It was late in the afternoon, about 5:30. We (I was with another couple on a Harley and a single rider on a Honda) called the Harley dealer in Tucson for advice, and the Service Manager set us up with a AAA flatbed that took us all the way into town, and even helped us pick a convenient hotel. The next morning, we were awakened by a phone call from the Harley SM telling us he was going to send a trailer for my bike in half an hour. Two guys wrestled that heavy monster into the trailer, and the four of us rode in a crew cab pickup to the dealership. I was told my bike had priority over all other work, and that I should be on the road in a couple of hours. I asked where we could have breakfast and the SM handed me his car keys and pointed down the road. "Two miles", he said. When we walked back into the dealership a little over an hour later, the SM told me my bike was on the wash rack, and when it was done, we'd be on our way.

I asked him why the special treatment, and he told me that I wasn't being treated special at ALL. Harley riders who are traveling, and have trouble, get priority treatment at ALL Harley dealerships is what he said. '49 Panhead in a chopped frame or brand new Electra-Glide, a Harley is a Harley. I told him he was fucking awesome and he told me to go to the clothing section and pick out a dealership T-shirt.

I defy riders of any other make to make the same claim that I can. All in all, we lost about two and a half hours of road time. On my Ninja, I couldn't even go to another dealer in So. Cal. I had to go to the dealer I bought it from.

I'm not a Harley Rider, I'm a Motorcycle Rider who just happens to prefer Harleys. Say what you will, there are a thousand times more white Toyotas on the road then there are Harleys of ANY stripe.

[Fumesucker]

35. My son in law had a Road King..

I don't remember the year but it was pretty recent, fuel injected..

I rode it several times and it was an OK bike but I actually prefer something that will flick through the twisties a bit better, you're not going to drag a knee on a RK, not that I do that any more anyway.

I've always been big on collision avoidance, I can easily think of at least half a dozen times that riding a maneuverable bike has kept me shiny side up and rubber side down when some idiot cager pulled a brain dead stunt in front of me..

[ProgressiveProfessor]

26. My main bike is an older Connie...and even it looks a whole lot better than a BossHog

I know, I know...eye of the beholder and all that

[Fumesucker]

29. I'm not a cruiser guy anyway..

I like the way the older Connie's look myself, they were nearly perfect which is why Kawasaki didn't change much on them for a couple of decades or so, damn near unheard of for a Japanese manufacturer.

Some people like tire shredding horsepower, others like crisp handling, I'm in the latter camp myself.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

18. All of it? I think not.

More than HD perhaps, but its electronics, instruments, suspension, and brakes are most likely foreign made. Tires would be a toss up. Lots of former US brands are made off shore these days. The GM motor most likely has some non-US parts on it as well.

I googled some reviews and none of them had a parts source breakdown. Its not something that cruiser makers advertise either. As a pratical matter, I am not sure its even possible to build a MC with only US made parts.

My point in the thread is its not possible to buy transportation (and most other things theses days) and remain all American made.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. Not Until We Bring Back High Tarriffs On Micro-Wage Countries

Like Europe does.

[HeresyLives]

3. Won't be back under any circumstance.

It has nothing to do with 'free trade', since you don't have free trade with China.

But cheap labor or automation was inevitable anyway.

[AdHocSolver]

22. The corporations consciously design products to be unrepairable. It need not be this way.

Electronics products provide an example of what I mean.

In the early years, radios, TV sets, medical electronic equipment, and so forth were assembled from discrete components: vacuum tubes, resistors, capacitors, coils, etc. The first solid-state equipment was made the same way, using transistors in place of vacuum tubes.

Solid-state devices were smaller and used less power allowing for smaller parts and miniaturization. This led to modularization of circuitry, that is, a TV set could be built from sub-assemblies based on functionality. This allowed for more components being assembled by automated equipment, but equipment could still be repaired by replacing defective modules or defective components in a module.

With the development of integrated circuits (IC's), troubleshooting and repair became more difficult, but not impossible. IC's are devices containing hundreds, thousands, and even millions of transistors in a single unit (often referred to as a "chip"). The CPU (Central Processing Unit) in your computer is an example.

IC's are relatively cheap to make and allow for extreme automation. Digital IC's can be designed to be general purpose devices, which can be programmed to accomplish practically any task. Your cell phone, printer, monitor, microwave oven, can all use a similar programmable device which can be programmed to perform different tasks by loading it with the appropriate software.

This is where the problem of non-repairability comes in. When equipment was modular, one could find the offending part or module and replace it. That is less profitable than selling the customer an entirely new product. By making products with all functionality on a single chip, if one function goes bad, i.e., one transistor on that chip fails, the whole device becomes useless as there is no way to repair that chip. (in the case of a computer CPU, which is very expensive relative to the cost of the entire computer, the CPU IC itself is socketed so it can be replaced. In the case of most other devices, the programmable chip is soldered in and would require special and expensive equipment to replace.)

Moreover, putting together sub-assemblies requires more labor than having an automated machine install a programmable chip that does everything.

There is a more subtle downside to putting all functionality onto programmable chips, rather than using separate modules based on functionality. Where the device using embedded programmable controllers is too expensive to toss, such as the computer in your car or a piece of medical electronic equipment, subtle errors in operation could go unnoticed, and be extremely difficult to locate and repair.

I read where patients were severely injured, and in some cases died, from malfunctioning radiation therapy equipment, which gave the patients too high a dosage. The operators put too much confidence in the equipment.

In reading about the current problems with Toyota cars, my thinking early on has been that the problems are due to a malfunction in the electronic controls.

In any case, cars, like a lot of appliances and other devices, are over-engineered. They are too complex, too complicated in their operation, too difficult to troubleshoot, and too difficult and expensive to repair.

The Lexus that sped out of control because the driver couldn't shut off the engine is an example of extremely bad and dangerous design. There should be a "kill" switch easily accessed for any potentially dangerous equipment.

Having worked in the electronics field and programmed computers, I don't trust anything I can't see, touch, smell, or hear in operation.

The old saying: "If you want to enjoy eating sausage, don't watch it being made" (or however it goes) applies here. Automation has always been used, not to make products of better quality, but to make them more cheaply and more profitable.

[Statistical]

33. "one transistor on that chip fails, the whole device becomes useless" = nonsense.

No Integrated Circuit has 0% flaw rate. None. Not a single IC ever made anywhere in the world.
IC design is about redundancy.

Repairability isn't always desired. You have to weigh the increased costs + likelihood or repair * repair costs VS likelihood of replacement * replacement costs.

With IC continuing to drop in price and increase in capability it is unlikely you can design a system where the left side (repair) is cheaper in long run than the right side (replacement).

If we reach a point where Moore's Law fails and IC designs become static then that might change however we are at least 2 decades away from that.

[AdHocSolver]

36. You have the "correct" facts, but the wrong conclusions.

It is true that IC's are manufactured with redundant parts to allow for bad components in any given batch.

Each IC is tested and if any part of the circuit is found to be bad, that part of the IC is blocked and isolated by the chip manufacturer so that it is effectively removed from the chip.

Once the IC chip is inserted in the device, printer, monitor, or whatever, and programmed, a failure in a single gate in a register or control circuit can cause the functionality to fail. The software can have subtle bugs that show up only under certain conditions (that is true for practically all software). The more complex the software, the more likely it has not been completely debugged.

Complex equipment that is expensive to replace is usually designed to be "economically" repairable. Parts costs are usually inexpensive. The labor costs can be high because one needs expensive test equipment and service manuals to find and fix the problems, and it often takes a lot of time. You don't toss a device that costs $3,000 or $4,000 because one IC chip fails.

On the other hand, two years ago, I "tossed" a $100 ink jet printer that failed catastrophically less than a year after I bought it. I had bought it from Best Buy and had paid for the extended warranty. I took it in for repair, and they called me a week later, and said it was unrepairable because the manufacturer didn't even have replacement parts for it. They sold me another printer for the difference in price from the broken model, but only because I had purchased their extended warranty. If I had relied on the manufacturer's warranty (one year parts, 90 days labor) I would have had nothing to show for my purchase.

For want of a $2.00 IC chip, the printer case, print head assembly, ink cartridges (two new ones I had installed shortly before it failed) paper tray and paper feed mechanism "went to the land fill". That is wasteful, and it happened because the manufacturer decided it was cheaper FOR IT to toss the unit rather than make it repairable.

This kind of occurrence happens again and again everyday with all kinds of items.

By the way, I worked as an electronics technician for over twenty years, and one transistor in an IC chip can fail and cause the entire device to stop working.

[Go2Peace]

5. Sure they will. New manufacturing companies happen still, just have to stop the hemoraging

It's pretty simple, if we even the playing field a bit with tarriffs, stop the artificial currency exchange rates, and then encourage small business growth we it will come back.

Saying it *can't* come back is just not true. It will not always be cheap to import overseas either. We just have to stop the practices that kill and unnaturally compete with our mid size companies here.

The megacorporations will not come back, but then they really were never the core of our new manufacturing growth.

[KT2000]

6. medium sized businesses

are still being bought up by holding companies and private equity firms. This is having a horrible effect on manufacturing jobs because they run their businesses like they are financial instruments - not manufacturing companies.
They even have companies that facilitate the move of manufacturing to China and India.
Yes - they are creating lean and mean companies, the administrative functions of their diverse holdings are consolidated. They leave in their wake unemployed people who have put decades into their jobs.

These holding companies and equity firms get tax breaks for doing this. They are rewarded for leveraging the assets of the companies they raid. They run good comapnies into the ground after they have cleaned them out. Why? They are wreaking havoc on this country.

[whathehell]

11. I agree and I think a major effort should be made to reverse the situation

as much as possible.

In his SOTO address, Obama talked about tax incentives for companies who STAY here rather than go overseas. Doing that, in addition to bringing back tariffs could have an impact, IMO.

..It's a question of finding the political will.

[KT2000]

25. Yes - remove the incentive

This was one of Obama's campaign promises and like you said, he brought it up again in the SOTU. It is time for action.
Every day more manufacturing operations are leaving - they need to act soon.

[Throd]

7. My state (CA) seems determined to chase out all manufacturing.

[The_Casual_Observer]

8. And as a result, no jobs are coming back. Everything else supports

manufacturing jobs in one way or another. The system was gamed with a baseless run-up in jobs in retail, service & construction for about 20 years. That run-up collapsed last year & it isn't temporary. The real jobs have gone overseas & we are left with nothing but service jobs providing services to nobody.

[Hannah Bell]

9. They're not coming back *anywhere*. The world *as a whole* has lost manufacturing jobs.

Even china has.

it's the "miracle of productivity".


what we should be asking is why productivity improvements = declining wages for most of the globe. how is it we're "richer" in that we can produce more with less labor -- but labor is poorer? who's going to buy all that expanded production?



"Over the past decade, U.S. manufacturing jobs have declined by more than 11 percent, Miklovic noted. But at the same time, Japan’s manufacturing employment base has dropped by 16 percent, while the number of manufacturing jobs in countries including Brazil have declined by some 20 percent, he pointed out. “And one of the largest losers of manufacturing jobs has been China,” Miklovic added. “We like to pick on China and say that all of these jobs are going to China, but they’re losing jobs in manufacturing as well.”

The reason for the job losses? Miklovic summed it up in one word: automation. Through automation, he said, “we are really doing a good job of improving the productivity of people.”

Miklovic reminded media attendees at the panel session that 25 percent to 30 percent of the U.S. population was at one time involved in agricultural jobs. But today, only 3 percent of Americans work in agriculture, yet they have turned the United States into a net agricultural exporter, he noted. “The same thing is now happening in manufacturing,” Miklovic said. “Through automation, through improved productivity, we’re driving the number of jobs down on a global basis.”"

http://www.automationworld.com/webonly-320

[eridani]

10. Lavorare meno, lavorare tutti!

Same pay, less work. It's the only way to keep most of us able to buy things.

[Hannah Bell]

13. si.

[leftstreet]

15. Si!

:thumbsup:

[Mojorabbit]

16. What a wonderful post

I did not know the rest of the world was having the same destruction of manufacturing jobs.

[amborin]

14. especially when China may benefit from the stimulus money...

for manufacturing wind power machinery

[old mark]

20. The GOP has a way to do this-eliminate all unions, benefits and safety regulations

and take US wages down to par with China.

Country First!


mark

[krispos42]

27. Then we're done for.

Our country will cease making wealth, which will drive inflation through the roof as the ratio of money to wealth goes completely off-kilter.

Eventally, we'll be attacked, our defenses wiil crumble as we prove unable to meet the material needs of our own protection, and we'll be agricultural serfs for the victor. Probably China.

Assuming the President doesn't decide to go nuclear. If he or she does... well, nice knowin' ya.

[AdHocSolver]

31. The theme here seems to be that the permanent loss of jobs is inevitable.

A lot of posts here imply that people are powerless against the corporations that are all-powerful magicians who have hypnotized the populace into a state of abject submission.

I can see all of those zombies helplessly being dragged into Wal-Mart to buy their Chinese made 52-inch high-def TV sets.

In another thread, I read the posts of the people who believe they are going to retire in 10 or 15 years and live comfortably on the gains in their stock portfolios...yeh, post-Enron.

Then there all those people who spend billions on the designer drugs they see advertised on TV every day. The disclaimers about the bad side effects alone make a person wonder why anyone would rush to use them, even aside from the high cost.

With all the talk about the bad effects of eating high fat, high sodium, high sugar, high calorie foods, the fast food chains haven't taken too big a hit on profits.

There is no profit in running a scam without a lot of suckers.

Talk with your wallets folks! The retailers will find more American-made products to sell you if you demand them. Supermarkets are selling more "organic" foods because buyers are asking for them.

Support local businesses, even if it costs a little more. Oftentimes, the extra cost is pennies. I find stuff at a local hardware store that is higher quality and sometimes cheaper than at the big box stores. And, I am helping the guy stay in business. Buy used! Rummage sales, Salvation Army stores, and Goodwill stores can be sources of real bargains.

There are a lot of ways to turn this around. It will take a lot of people changing their buying habits, and it will take time, but it can be done.

Also, support progressive politicians, and let the politicians know where you stand.

[dmallind]

32. Facts on US manufacturing production over time (yes adjusted for inflation)...

http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables09.html#erp3

[DCBob]

34. Yet this article says the "hot jobs" of the future are blue collar..

http://features.bizmore.com/blog/workforce-trends/teens-turn-thumbs-down-on-hands-on-careers

I think many in this country are unwilling to do dirty work and yet they complain there are no jobs.