Just so we are clear on BLS reporting, that U3 number 9.7%

[AllentownJake]

1) The report doesn't measure actual jobs. It is a telephone survey of 50,000 people selected for demographic reasons to represent the populace of the United States. It is like one of those political polls you read on here, bigger with more assumptions and statistical factors put into it.

2) Unemployment claims, actual hiring, or people being added to payrolls are not in this report. It is an extrapolation of responses recieved during the survey process.

3) You can be claiming unemployment compensation and not be in the labor force. Most benefit systems are electronic. You call into an automated system or you file on the web. There are very few states that have unemployment offices that require you to show up and show jobs you applied for in the past 2 weeks to receive benefits. In fact, no one has to do that till they reach Tier 5 of the unemployment benefit system. So you can be a discouraged worker and be getting a check for unemployment.

4) There are statistical assumptions made and there are arguments on economic blogs constantly. One is the Seasonal adjustment, where the government makes assumptions about the seasonal level of employment in certain sectors and adjusts the data for those purposes. The other is assumptions about small business hiring and self employment, another is assumptions about the overall size of the labor pool.

5) You can have a decrease in the U3 and the U6 numbers which are the most widely followed by the media and a decrease in payrolls. This happens when people are counted as not in the labor pool. It is a simple numerator/denominator type of thing.

6) Lastly, this report changes each year, and each President since it first came out is making changes, generally to make themselves look better. For instance, prior to Ronald Reagan, US Military personnel were not counted as parts of the labor force. Ronald Reagan made them employed and part of the labor force.

So I ask again, as this will probably be a topic of discussion over the next week, please eductate yourself on what this report is and isn't and please don't say silly things like where are the people that fell of unemployment compensation in the report. They aren't in there because there is no correlation between claims and the survey. It is not a factor in the reporting.

Thank you.

[hobbit709]

1. Or like here in TX

If you weren't working full time and you lose your job-no unemployment. So you're not even counted even if you are looking for full time work.

[AllentownJake]

2. Federally if you were working part-time

You are employed in the U3 and counted in the u6 as underemployed. If you lose your part-time job you are counted as unemployed in the U3 as long as you are looking for work.

Texas's self measurement of matters has little to say about this.

The labor department conducts the survey, not Texas.

I think you are thinking about the weekly unemployment compensation numbers which are based on actual new claims and reported to the Federal Government by the state.

If you are inelligible for your states unemployment program when you lose your job, you would not be reported as a new claim.

[hobbit709]

4. That's assuming you get polled.

Neither I nor anyone I know has ever gotten a call asking about our employment status.

[AllentownJake]

6. 50,000 people out of a country of over 300,000,000

You have a better chance of winning the daily 3 lotto numbers and about $500 in my opinion.

The sample without the adjustments should be large enough to provide an accurate snapshot in time about the employment situation, in comparison to other periods.

If you are worried about shenagians take the numbers in May 2010 and compare the numbers in May 2009 and 2008 and look for areas where they have changed classification over the years.

[hobbit709]

8. I know 5 people that have won at least $10K in the lottery

I haven't trusted the "official" numbers since Reagan.

[AllentownJake]

10. I generally trust nothing I read from the government

However, the report is meant for the investing class. If you know how to read the report, you know what is going on.

The dip in the markets on Friday is they read the report and figured it out pretty quickly.

[Lost4words]

3. Oh but folks will kick my ass and lecture me how much things are improving.

[AllentownJake]

5. That isn't my point of the OP

I'd just appreciate if people know what they are talking about before arguing over what a report says.

They should know what the report is first.

[xchrom]

7. Thanks for the info. Statistics and what they mean

Make my head spin.

Even worse than new pair of Prada shoes.

[AllentownJake]

9. The report is confusing on purpose

The Soviets made up numbers. We hide truth in plain sight for the investment class and expect people to be too lazy to figure out what a number actually means.

This report could be simplified easily, it won't happen because it is part of our system's game of hiding truth in unnecessary complication.

[AllentownJake]

11. Kick

Because I'm so sick of restating this every month.

[Selatius]

12. Unemployment is hovering around 17% if we take the U-6 measure at face value.

It is the BLS' broadest measure of unemployment of all the six standards it uses to measure unemployment. However, some have said that even U-6 under-reports unemployment, as it excludes people who have been discouraged for more than a year and have stopped looking for jobs that don't yet exist.

[AllentownJake]

13. I say 22%

If we go back to honest classifications