Seems To Me That BP Should Know What The Output Of This Well Is. My Theory........

[global1]

is that BP was extracting oil from that well. They should know how many gallons/barrels they were taking out of the well when all was good before the explosion. Now it is possible they were only extracting a controlled amount - but they should have the data as to what the potential of extraction would be. In my mind the force from which that oil comes out shouldn't change after the explosion - the damage it incurred shouldn't have changed the force from which this oil comes out of the ground.

So when I hear that they only estimated a small amount of oil coming out in the first days of this disaster and then the estimates started getting higher and higher and experts were predicting the increased amounts of oil coming out into the Gulf - I have to believe that BP knew all along and were just feigning ignorance on this because they were trying to minimize the financial bite from fines they would incur.

I hope some oil person out there in DU land has a feel for this. Shouldn't BP have known all along what the forces that were pushing this oil out of the earth? Wouldn't they have had data on this all along? I got to think a multi-billion dollar company that have all kinds of experts - geologists, physicists, scientists working for them has a handle on these sorts of calculations.

That's why I don't believe anything this company tells us anymore. They are corrupt. They are criminals. They are destroyers of the environment. They only care about one thing - "the almighty dollar".

[Statistical]

1. The well wasn't in production.

They were taking any oil out of the well.

[Arctic Dave]

2. All wells are flow tested when drilled

Thats how they verify the hit the right target.

[global1]

5. Explain That To Me - You Mean They Spent All This Money To Drill This Well.....

and by all indications - this looked to be a good producer for them - and they didn't extract any oil from it? Why? So all the deaths and the destruction to the environment was for what? I don't comprehend. It doesn't make sense.

[Statistical]

7. It was in the process of being constructed when the DWH sank.

Even when construction was completed (which never happened) the goal was to "complete & cap" and move the Deep Water Horizon to a new site.

A cheaper less capable rig would then finish making the well into a production well.

[Arctic Dave]

3. You are correct. All wells are flow tested when drilled.

This is how they know they hit the right target.

[KharmaTrain]

4. They Had Guestimates...

It's in BP's interest to downplay the amount of oil that's been released as the government will fine it based on what the government (and the courts) eventually decide was released. Thus in the early days when there wasn't oil on the beaches and the slick was out at sea, they tried to downplay the amount to limit their liability. I suspect they knew how bad things were but without any outside observation and verification, they could keep the numbers low...and only when they were forced to make the video of the gusher public, they've slowly upgraded the figure.

In my opinion they have an idea of what's down in that reservoir through their sonic sounding of the region prior to drilling (they didn't just slap the drill there for no reason) but they have no real idea of how much oil and gas lies underneath. From reports BP did know this was a high pressure well but decided to cut corners to make up for their investment...the data were estimates and I would imagine they and the government now have a handle on how much has been released. And in due time, we all will learn as well.

Yes, BP has acted criminally here and the evidence is still being gathered...

[global1]

6. I Have To Believe They Had More Than Guesstimates....

Why would you spend all that money to drill this in the first place with guesstimates? I can't buy that. I believe that the technology and science in oil drilling has gone far beyond 'guesstimates'. I have to think that on someone's desk at BP that they have all the data on this well - pressures, quantity in ground, potential output, flow rates, etc.

[Statistical]

8. Oil exploration data isn't that exact.

Nobody can "see" down 5 miles under the earth.
Nobody knows exactly how much oil is there.

It is more probabilities. Estimates that the oil is in this range to this range and optimal drilling depth is form x feet to y feet.
The oil industry drills "dry" or "non functional" (wet but insufficient pressure/geology/economics) every month.

It isn't an exact science.