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However, all elections must be analyzed as they go along. For starters- they need 40 seats to take back the House. I know that it's 39 right now, but I sincerely doubt that Republican in Hawaii will retain that seat during the general when there's only one Democratic challenger on the ballot and not two. That being said, I think there are about 3 or 4 Republican House seats we are likely to take- Joseph Cao being the one the ripest for the picking. Now, you must remember for every seat we win that's another they must win. The GOP could take back 40 seats, but lose 2, 3, or 4 and we still retain the House.
A lot of people draw comparisons to 1994- but I really think that's erroneous. It's best to look at it AND look at 2006. For one, in both elections peoples policy beliefs changed to the party out of power. In 94 people said they changed their mind- they wanted Republican policies, they like what they had. In 06 the opposite happened and we gained 31 seats- needing only 15 at the time to take the House.
We must remember that no ones political clout right now is very good. Not the Presidents, not the Democrats, not the Republicans. All the bitching about Nancy Pelosi that Republicans do would make you think everyone despises her- but truth be told more Americans have a favorable view of her than John Boehner. And the approval ratings for either party are incredibly low right now- for both of them. This, I believe is the big difference between now and 94 and 06. People in 94 dumped the Democrats and the Republican numbers went up, in 06 they did the opposite and we got their backing. Now, no party can lay claim to that- that's a serious difference folks.
We should also look at individual races. My college is located in the 3rd Congressional district of Kansas- always represented by a very conservative Democrat that is now retiring. His wife is likely to take the party nomination, the primary isn't very contentious. The Republican primaries in Kansas are always brutal- it's a moderate vs. conservative war zone with the conservative typically winning. That is why Dennis Moore had never been unseated in this district, they kept running people to far right of the district. Yet, this race is being called a likely Republican pick up by all of the pundints. I just don't see it yet. It is very, very possible- but I'd put my money on the Democrat right now. It's also important to point out that John Murpha's seat was filled with a special election and the Democrat one. Now, that seat was majority white, blue collar, conservative and votes for a Republican President every time- but then votes for a Democratic congressman- and that's exactly the race Republicans were suppose to pick up, and they didn't. That should really make the GOP nervous.
The big difference with the Republican and Democratic party is that the people here are happy to vote for a Blue Dog before allowing a Republican to take the seat. Conservatives, not so much. All of their candidates will be far to the right- and perhaps to conservative for the districts they run in. I think they are genuinely making a gamble about whether or not the country is really leaning that far in their direction idealogically.
We should also analyze things by races- most of our open seats right now that had incumbents who resigned are Democratically leaning districts, that right there is in our favor. We must also remember that a vast majority of these races don't have challengers yet- they don't even have finished primaries! In short, the campaigns haven't even begun.
I think that if we campaign hard as hell, really define our opponents before they can define us and themselves, register the voters, get out the vote, we can still retain the House. The Senate will take big losses but I think we'll still maintain control, probably over the 50 mark.
But make no mistake people! If we loose the House this year it is not going to be a shocker- that is totally in the realm of possibility. It is in the line of how history goes. In fact, these past years between 94 and 06 were really out of the realm of normal in the history of American politics. I believe the biggest seat change was between 7-10 seats. If you look back from the 50's up you'll see that it was totally not uncommon that the Democrats lost 20 seats one cycle, picked them back up the next, lost 30 or 40 in one cycle, and recovered the next- you can also check this on Wikipedia if you want. We've really gotten out of the cycle of history here with this notion that one party will have a solid control for years and years.
I think we could loose 20-30 seats and keep control, but make no mistake this is SERIOUS and it IS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. So volunteer your ASSES off in November and FIGHT LIKE HELL.
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