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GuardianWorld leaders issued a stark warning yesterday to the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, demanding detailed plans of how he will takeover responsibility for the country's security and drive out corruption within five years.
The message from the G8 leaders, who are gathered in Canada, will be seen as setting a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops. It will also be seen as a vindication for David Cameron, who said yesterday that he hoped British soldiers would be out of the country in the same time period.
But the message is likely to trigger controversy, as many warn that Afghanistan is far from stable. Nick Harvey, the armed forces minister, said yesterday that there would be no withdrawal before ministers were satisfied that the country would not "slip back into being a haven for international terrorism".
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The prime minister's apparent eagerness for a full withdrawal is understood to be causing consternation among policymakers in Washington and Kabul, who believe it is sending signals to the Afghan people that UK troops are preparing to go home. Semple said evidence was emerging on the ground that the country was tilting towards civil war – a situation that has dogged Afghanistan for much of its 300-year history.
Semple, a fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, said there were signs of a three-way jostling for power evolving between pro-Taliban Pashtun, anti-Taliban Pashtun and non-Pashtun groups. "The civil war scenario is a horrendous position. You can already see elements of that at the moment. The reality is that the Nato campaign is just about keeping a lid on it, but not forever."You handle the drawdown wrongly, you get basically ambushed in Afghan politics and you get this prospect of a civil war," said Semple, who as the third-highest-ranking diplomat in the country was expelled by the Afghan government in 2007 for pursuing talks with the Taliban. Last week Britain's special envoy to Afghanistan, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, stepped down after clashing with senior Nato and US officials over his insistence that the military-driven counter-insurgency effort was failing. The veteran diplomat likened the battle in Afghanistan to "a civil war", and said that the need for peace talks with the Taliban was imperative.
more:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/27/g8-tells-karzai-tackle-corruption________________________________
Everyone arguing the nuance of whether a withdrawal actually begins in 2011 can rest easy. Nobody's Goin' Nowhere. 2015 is being used as the 'best-case scenario' date. The Endless War goes on....