Looks Like Oil Is Still Gushing Into The Gulf

[Dinger]

Just looked in the CNN live feed. I thought this was supposed to work?

[Spazito]

1. They are doing pressure test right now, started this morning...

here is very good thread with lots of info about what's happening:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8737044

[NYC_SKP]

2. They've installed a new three cam valve on top of the old POS BOP

And after some pressure tests, because closing the valves could cause a blow out below the ocean floor (and then we'd be super duper fucked).

Details here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8737044

It'll be a few more days before tests allow the next step, attachment of collection gear to capture most of all of the leak while we wait for the relief well to do it's job of killing the well.

:patriot:

[LisaL]

3. It is my understanding that their goal was not to attach the

collection gear but to actually stop the flow with this cap, if the well integrity held up.
If the well integrity does not hold up, then they will have to start collecting again.

[gateley]

4. No, the only way to stop the flow will be with the kill which is what the relief

wells will do. Ideally this will capture 100% of the flow to collect, rather than the amount (whatever it really was) that was being collected with the previous cap. If it works, it will stop the flow into the gulf.

[LisaL]

5. I don't think so. Their goal is to stop the flow, not to continue collecting.

But that depends on well integrity.
"BP crews today are preparing to perform a critical well integrity test on the blown-out Macondo well that, if successful, could completely stop the flow of oil and gas gushing from the well for the first time since late April."

http://blogs.chron.com/newswatchenergy/archives/2010/07/bp_prepares_for.html

[gateley]

6. I think the the "halting" is part of the integrity test -- but not intended

to shut off the flow until the relief wells are ready for the kill. It's still my understanding that (ideally) they will completely stop the flow, take the readings, then allow it to flow again to capture.

From the article you linked to:

By July 19, the new stack in concert with added subsea equipment would allow four ships to capture between 60,000 and 80,000 barrels of oil per day. Official estimates put the flow rate at between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels a day.

Apparently the relief wells are needed to pump in the "mud" to allow them to plug up the well permanently. I still really think this is an interim step with the goal of testing the well condition, and being able to collect all of the escaping oil until they can perform the kill operation.

You can tell I'm not an engineer! :7

[Statistical]

10. Capturing is just the backup.

The primary goal of the test is to see if the well can handle the pressure of using the cap to seal the well.

If it can then they will seal the well with cap. This is only temporary until relief wells are done but it does mean the flow drops to 0 and they don't need to do anymore capture.

IF the well can't handle the pressure then they will not seal the cap and continue to capture oil (hopefully more or all).


So

Primary plan: use rams in cap to seal well until relief well completed = no flow & no capture
Backup plan: use new cap to increase capture % until relief well completed

In either case the final solution is the relief well.

[gateley]

11. Thank you! I always know that YOU have it right! I'd better stop spreading lies now.

:7 :hi:

[Statistical]

13. No problem. It is a fluid and complex topic. Here is an article

Shutting the valves will allow BP to measure the pressure in the well and determine whether the oil and gas flow can be stopped without it breaching the well and erupting through the seafloor.

If the test clears the way, BP may end the biggest U.S. oil spill in hours rather than weeks.

Once the test begins, BP, based in London, may need 48 hours of data to declare the well safe to seal, Kent Wells, the company’s senior vice president for exploration and production said yesterday at a press conference in Houston. It may know within six hours if it can’t be sealed, he said.

“If all of a sudden, they have a pressure drop, they’re going to open that thing wide up and leave it alone,” Don Van Nieuwenhuise, director of professional geosciences at the University of Houston, said yesterday in an interview. “A quick drop means a leak closer to the seabed, where oil and gas might work their way to the surface.”

Permanent Plug

BP said it may not proceed with the test until Thursday. Even if BP is able to use the valve stack to stop the leak, the company will still need to finish drilling a relief well to permanently plug Macondo.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-13/bp-delays-test-of-leaking-gulf-well-until-u-s-gives-go-ahead.html

I think the cap seal is likely a longshot. If the test fails they will resume oil capture so you may end up being right.

Still I can't help but hope the well holds. Imagine if the oil stopped for good by Friday. :)

[Statistical]

8. The goal is to close all 3 sheer rams and seal the well.

It will be only temporary and the final fix is to use relief wells but the goal IS to stop the flow.

The cap is 100% capable of doing this the issue is can the rest of well handle the shock. That is why BP is doing test on it. If they (and govt) determines that the well can't handle it then the backup is to use new cap to do capture operations.

[INTMANOMYST]

14. I'm out of the country right now

how much is the US media covering the spill anymore?
I haven't seen it on the front pages of ANY of the sites I check for news in... at least two weeks.

[Statistical]

16. Not much.

They cover each change in development but there is round the clock coverage anymore.

There is almost nothing of the cleanup (or lack thereof).

[NYC_SKP]

7. The new cap has the capacity to lessen the release, but also to collect the release...

As conditions permit.

I think the common wisdom is that it's best not to shut down the flow completely, to let the bottom kill do that.

Note in this graphic, just above the three ram stack, a riser for collecting hydrocarbons.

[lonestarnot]

9. I don't think they will ever stop it.

[backscatter712]

12. It's supposed to take a few days.

The new cap is on, like it's supposed to, but they're closing the valves and vents on the contraption slowly and carefully, the process is supposed to take several days, so they can carefully measure pressures, try not to overstress the BOP and well casing, and make sure the various siphon hoses & such to the collection ships on the surface are working correctly.

If they just slammed all the valves shut to cut off the flow suddenly, the cap, the BOP and the entire well would go kablooie.

[LisaL]

15. The test has been postponed.

[backscatter712]

17. Yep. Looks like they're gonna switch from cap-it-shut mode to capture-the-oil mode.

They probably were watching the gauges, saw the pressure wasn't coming up like it was supposed to, meaning there's a leak somewhere, probably in the underground pipes or the BOP where they can't fix it, meaning that just slamming the valves shut and hoping the pressure holds wouldn't work.

Now they're gonna switch to hooking the ships up so they can pipe the oil there.