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Question. What poll/polls do you consider most accurate for tracking November elections? TY

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pgodbold Donating Member (953 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 12:37 PM
Original message
Question. What poll/polls do you consider most accurate for tracking November elections? TY
I've been looking at 538 but I'm beginning to doubt them. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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monmouth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. I look at Gallup first if that means anything...LOL....n/t
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Unvanguard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 12:39 PM
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2. I think 538 has it pretty much right.
Whether they are marginally better or worse than other sophisticated polling aggregators elsewhere, I don't know, but they are far better than unfiltered poll-watching or anecdotal speculation.
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LWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. I don't look at polls. nt
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 01:20 PM
Response to Original message
4. I too can call at 3:00 p.m. in a certain Zip code of a certain county in a certain state...
and be pretty much assured as to what the responses to any political questions
I could have would be. If I word the question in a way that guarantees further
that I hear an answer that I was working towards, I'm good to go as a pollster
providing the narrative that I am working toward.

That's why I don't believe polls; because they can too easily manipulated
when giving us a result.

As for 538......I didn't know they were a polling outfit. I thought Nate took the
existing polls and line them up in such a way that he comes out with his findings.
If that's the case, and he is working with manipulated poll results to begin with,
then he can't be any better than the garbage he is working with, IMO.
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Posteritatis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
5. All of 'em at once.
(I'm not really kidding.)
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Arkana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
6. It used to be Nate Silver but I'm starting to doubt him now.
I think he's getting caught up in the hysteria.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Does Nate actually poll? I thought he analyzed existing poll results.....
Edited on Sun Oct-03-10 01:39 PM by FrenchieCat
If so, Nate has little chance of coming up with different results from the
polls he has to work with.....
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pscot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-03-10 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
8. Dkos does a weekly polling roundup
That's pretty informative. It's up now.
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