The timing of the Deficit Commission

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The deficit commission is supposed to be looking at the long-term debt picture and making recommendations.

A problem: The deficit commission doesn't have the faintest idea what the long-term debt picture looks like because we happen to be in an ongoing economic crisis. Federal revenues are down 1.1 trillion from pre-Lehman collapse levels.

Will federal revenues rebound next year? the year after that? Ten years from now? Never?

Revenue is an indispensable part of the deficit equation. (Hope that's obvious.) Bill Clinton didn't balance the budget, the stock market did. And Barack Obama didn't increase the deficit by spending more--the deficit increased itself because the economy collapsed.

Not since the 1930s have we had so little idea what the economy will be like going forward.

So there is nothing sensible anyone can say about the deficit five or ten or twenty years from now.

Like, really... nothing.

On the other hand, Social Security is more actuarial than economic. (Though not part of the deficit... hmmm....) So the commission can probably say some (false) things about Social Security.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

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