The election climate in Paraguay grows tense with the possible defeat of the Red Party that has been in power for more than half a century. The U.S. ambassador's interference in the electoral campaign and a yellow fever epidemic are keeping tensions high.
Relations between the ambassador and the government grew tense after the Dec. 16 Red Party primary elections to select a candidate for the presidential contest that will be held on April 20. Blanca Ovelar, supported by President Nicanor Duarte, faced Vice President Luis Castiglioni, a personal friend of Donald Rumsfeld and Washington's preferred candidate. The whole clientelist apparatus of the ruling party went for Ovelar, who won by a tiny margin amid accusations of fraud.
Former Bishop in the Lead
According to all the polls, Fernando Lugo of the Patriotic Alliance for Change
is in the lead, with a margin of five and 13 points respectively ahead of Lino Oviedo of the National Union of Ethical Citizens and Ovelar of the Red Party. But at the same time, an overwhelming majority of Paraguayans believe that the Red candidate will be the one entering office. In effect, despite Lugo's greater chances, everyone knows that once the well-greased Red apparatus gets going, with its broad dispersing of favors—jobs, bribes, cash—everything can change.
In fact, the Red Party has never lost an election. Its base of support is the armed forces, the police, and the profuse state bureaucracy, which are mobilized to capture votes based on family and territorial affinities. But this time, things could be different for three reasons: the crisis within the Party, the enormous unpopularity of Duarte, and the appearance on the scene of a center-left candidate who can break the eternal two-party split between the Red and the Liberal Parties.
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