My 2010 House Rankings and Predictions

[KingFlorez]

Since there is a lot of talk about what the balance of power will be in the House, I decided to post my rankings and predictions. My pick for most likely scenario should calm some nerves.

(I posted this on Swing State Project as well) This is where we are at now, these are all the House seats Democrats currently hold that are on the line, they are a mixture of likely GOP, toss-up, lean Democratic and likely Democratic, most around here know the rankings and some I've listed randomly, because they don't necessarily rank higher or lower than any particular race.



If the GOP were to achieve moderate swing, it would amount about 20 or so seats, like the 1978 midterm election. This would be the best case scenario for Democrats, but I see more of a swing than this.



Now, the next chart shows a swing similar to the one achieved by Democrats in '06. The difference is, it would leave the GOP short of majority. This is the scenario that I think will actually happen in November.



The next scenario is the one where the GOP takes the house, but only by getting right to 218. If they are going to win the House, it likely won't be by more than this. They've got to reach way into the third column to even get a narrow majority. In this scenario, the Democrats could cause the Republicans a lot of headaches, because the GOPer's in marginal seats would have to support the administration sometimes. At 218-217, it would be really messy and if a special election popped up that Democrats could win, it would be interesting to see what would happen with the leadership.



The last one is the most disastrous that it could get, but I don't see the GOP pulling this one off, but it's worth putting out there. If the GOP can manage a big swing of votes, this could happen. But it isn't 1994 and the GOP has a lot less prospects, but like I said, it's worth discussing.



Now, as all politics is local and some incumbents are liked more than other, the swing in any of these scenarios can result in a different combination of seats switching hands, but I have ranked the seats in the order that I think they are likely to fall. It's all up to rather or not Democrats can localize these races to counteract Republicans nationalizing them. If turnout is good and Dem candidates can keep it local, the losses will be minimized. At this point, anything less than control of the House is what Republicans have to pull off or it's full scale internal strife and the extreme right-wing gets the GOP leadership. Can anyone say Minority Leader Bachmann?

[mediaman007]

1. Fascinating work!

I understand your methodology, which is really generic and based on historical trends. It will be interesting to see which scenario will be the result.

I think that meaningful races won't form until October. I really think that Republicans have had the playing field to themselves for most of the summer. This Fall, Democrats will be able to bring some form to the races when they pull together all of the material that Republicans and the Teabaggers have generated for the passed year.

Since last summer's August recess, the "Party of No" and the "Teabaggers Party" have given us lots of material to use against them. I'm excited for the possibilities.

[KingFlorez]

2. Kick

:kick:

[Dawson Leery]

3. kick

[Ter]

4. So even in the worst case, NY-13 stays Democrat?

Highly optimistic if you ask me.

[KingFlorez]

8. There were other seats that I see flipping before it does

The GOP has had a lot of infighting for the primary, so it would be a bit tougher this year for them to grab it. That's not to say it can't flip, I just see certain other seats flipping before it does in the scenarios I set up.

[Ter]

10. There is a primary...

But I think Michael Grimm will win the Republican nomination fairly easily. Both him and his opponent (forget his name) are fairly similar. Both neo-cons, both stressing we must stay in Iraq and Afghanistan, blah the same old tired warmongering line. I don't believe either have Tea Bag support.

[Cosmocat]

5. IMO ...

the media is trying its BEST to make this an R windfall, but when the dust settles the Rs will net maybe 3 senate seats and 20, maybe 25 house seats ...

[JamesA1102]

6. Great analysis nt

[karynnj]

7. This is great

One question. This analyzes only Democratic seats. I realize that this is likely to be a year the Republicans do better and that most Republicans have survived two Democratic wave years, but there likely are some reasonable estimates for seats moving in the other direction. There has to be at least one - because I don't think that the HI seat won in the special election is 100% likely to stay Republican.

One great thing this does is to list the seats in potential jeopardy. As I live in NJ 11, a completely not competitive district, not even in 2006 or 2008 with an excellent nominee in NJ, I thought it might be better to volunteer in another district. This helps me - in that NJ 6 and NJ 12 look pretty safe - so it is easy to take the advice of someone on the NJ forum here and maybe volunteer for a possible upset in NJ 7. (From a few goggles, the Republican looks very unimpressive and the Democrat might be a good shot and NJ 7 is closer to home.)

[KingFlorez]

9. There are a few that look like they will shift Dem

As you mentioned, HI-1 and in addition that one DE-AL, LA-2 and we are a tossup for IL-10.

[FrenchieCat]

11. Thank you for that!