About Gallup's Republicans 'very excited' about voting in November advantage. Does it matter?

[flpoljunkie]

Gallup 'very enthusiastic' numbers show Republicans hold a 51-28 advantage over Dems. PPP did not find such a large enthusiasm gap.

Public Policy Polling
MONDAY, JULY 19, 2010
The Monthly Generic

Among voters who are 'very excited' about voting this fall Republicans hold a 52-40 advantage. How much that matters is up for debate though. Scott Brown led the Massachusetts Senate race 59-40 with 'very excited' voters but won by only 5. Chris Christie led the New Jersey Governor's race 60-34 with 'very excited' voters but his final margin of victory was only 4 points. As I've said before unexcited voters count the same as excited ones and our polling so far this cycle has suggested the Democrats who answer our surveys vote, whether they're excited about it or not. So I'm not sure how much the wide GOP advantage with 'very excited' voters really matters.

There continues to be no doubt this fall's election will have more to do with whether Democrats can turn out Obama voters than keep them in the fold. Very few voters are shifting their allegiance from the 2008 election- 8% of Obama voters say they'll vote Republican this time but an almost equal 6% of McCain voters say they'll vote Democratic this time. When it comes to voters switching sides it's basically a wash, but Republicans are doing well across the country due to Democratic disengagement.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/monthly-generic.html

[Cosmocat]

1. yeah ...

Again, the Ds are overextended on R leaning districts, it is that simple ...

Because the 08 election proved to be the ultimate turnout with greatest enthusiasm for a really inspiring candidate and against the wrost president in our lives, the Ds road those coattails to get more seats than they really should have ...

I have said since then there is going to be a drawback ... Rs who sat out 08 are going to vote and some of the people who turned out to vote in 08 are not going to make it out ...

But, the same way a tea party with maybe 1000 people gets 72 hours of MSM coverage and a more liberal protest 10 times that size gets ZERO air time, the media is overhyping the screaming from the right ... It definitely helps to have the "enthusiam" advantage, but as much as they (wingers and MSM) WANT this to be 94, it ain't ... Rs were able to gin up a lot more CLOSER to reality faux outrage with the house checking account "scandal," there were a lot more social issues lit up ...

Conversely, the Ds have the power of incumbancy, they have A LOT of legisliative success ...

There just is not the great negatives and more positives ... Only thing really greater in the favor of the GOP is the MSM has given up all pretense of being objective relayers of information and are all in with the GOP ...

And, finally, BO still has a great campaign network in place, and he knows how to save his bullets for when it most matters ... He will ring in just right ...

I have contended almost since the end of 2008 that the Ds are going to lose 20 house seats, give or take ...

I am sticking with that ...

[Beetwasher]

3. Good Analysis, But I Think The Dems Will Do Considerably Better

Than even your 20 losses. Just my hunch. I think the Repubs are WAY overhyped and the ground game that Obama built is way underestimated and remember, no one's seen this Whitehouse in full election mode yet, so no one really knows what to expect. I think an Obama WH in full election mode is going to be way more devastating to Repubs than people realize. This latest salvo of attacks by Obama is NOTHING and it was powerful and it's only a pre-cursor.

[kelly1mm]

4. My only fear is that much of that ground game was teachers and

other union members. The teachers I know are not going to vote for republicans but I sure can tell you they are not fired up to volunteer for this administration any more.

[Bumblebee]

2. But the same Gallup is now showing Dems +6

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39952.html

Poor GOP do not know whom to believe: Rassmussen, where they are +9 or so, or this one. They should believe R, and just continue doing what they are doing. Works for us.

[theothersnippywshrub]

5. It's an indicator of turnout. The Night of the Broken Glass Republicans are going to vote.

Many democrats and independents will not. If enough democrats and independents do not vote, republicans will win big.