KY-SEN POLL: Conway 42, Paul 41.

[jefferson_dem]

Rand Paul and Jack Conway locked in tie at 41, new cn|2 Poll shows
August 19, 2010 By Ryan Alessi 6 Comments



Democratic U.S. Senate candidate appears to have picked up some undecided voters over the last two weeks and is in a dead heat with Republican candidate Rand Paul, the latest cn|2 Poll shows.

When asked which candidate they would support if the election were today, 41.7% of likely Kentucky voters said Conway and 41.2% picked Paul. The survey of 801 voters was conducted Aug. 16 through 18.

“I think it’s natural for these races to tighten up as we go into the fall,” said Ellen Williams, a lobbyist and former Republican Party of Kentucky chairman. “I’m not surprised. But that will change as people really focus on the differences between Paul and Conway.”


The cn|2 Poll conducted Aug. 16-18 shows the U.S. Senate race tied.
The results reflect a 10-point jump for Conway from the last statewide cn|2 Poll taken Aug. 2-4. Support for Paul has held steady at around 41 percent for each of the three statewide cn|2 Polls. View the full results and crosstabs of the Aug 16-18 poll here.

This survey also showed the lowest percentage of undecided voters for the cn|2 Poll at 16.4%. The other two previous polls each showed the percent of undecided voters above 20%.

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http://politics.mycn2.com/2010/08/19/rand-paul-and-jack-conway-locked-in-tie-at-41-new-cn2-poll-shows/

[Dawson Leery]

1. k/r

[thewiseguy]

2. Never heard of this particular polling firm

[Eric Condon]

5. It's basically the home channel for Insight digital cable.

As far as I knew all they did was weather updates, but apparently not.

[AtomicKitten]

3. That would be an inyourface pickup for the Democrats. nt

[saltpoint]

4. If I were down there in Kentucky I'd of course vote for

Jack, but given that he's running against a hyper-Libertarian kook like Rand Paul, I'm even more for Conway than usual.

Go, Jack.

[PDittie]

6. That race wil be nose-to-nose

right down to the wire in November. (I thought a horse race analogy would be appropriate for Kentucky.)

[karynnj]

7. That is a welcome poll - and it shows an enormous gain

Looking at the crosstabs, there is one other piece of good news - there seem to be significantly more undecided women than men - and there is a big gender gap here with Conway winning among women and Paul among men. (Not unusual as Democrats usually do - but it may be more so because of the "kidnapping" story, which while essentially a college prank does not present a charming picture of him 0 to grossly understate it.)

In addition, when you look at the crosstab of favorable/unfavorable for both, Paul has much higher VERY unfavorables ( 22.3(male) and 20.3(female) vs 9.5(male) and 5.3(female). Looking at both somewhat and very responses; Conway has 54.4/22.9 (with 22 unsure) and Paul has 46.8/36.4 (with 16 percent unsure)

One interesting observation is that asked, other than the economy, for a top issue - lack of health care was 25.6% and drug addiction was 24.7% - both of which Paul is abysmal on. (The elephant in the room here is "excluding the economy" It may depend if the Democrats can break through the work of the echo chamber)
- the question on what issues they want Congress to undertake looks bad and Obama's numbers are 40/57. Also, 53.3% of this sample identify as conservative. (This actually makes these results surprisingly good and shows how impossible winning KY normally is for us.)

[RBInMaine]

8. All Conway has to do is POUND on this nutjob asshole BIGTIME and he will win.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Momentum appears to be with Conway. What a great pickup for the Dems this would be!

[karynnj]

10. The poll before that was also promising - but not as much as this one

That poll showed that for registered voters it was tied and for likely voters, Paul was ahead by 5%. (One question I have is - have the Republicans REALLY yet actually had this high turnout.


http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/08/poll-all-tied-up-in-kentucky.php