According to Tweety Nate Silver still has the rethugs winning 47 plus seats

[bigdarryl]

What seats is he looking at because a lot of DU'ers have been posting poll numbers in a lot of districts where races are very close and in some cases some democrats are beating rethugs who are incumbents in there districts.I don't know his method of polling is .

[geek tragedy]

1. National generic polls, state polls, turnout models, etc.

His data is always historical and a snapshot, not forward looking.

[ClarkUSA]

5. Exactly. Although history indicates that we will lose seats, one month is a lifetime in politics.

In the meantime, I hope we are all signed up to GOTV.

All those who want Democrats to keep their majorities, please click on my sig link.

For the many malcontents and trolls who want Democrats to fail, I hope you get what you deserve.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

11. What you said. nt

[Phx_Dem]

2. Now that the Dems wimped out on the tax vote, they probably will.

Nice going assholes.

[bigdarryl]

4. well at least on Monday a bill will be introduced about stopping the

out sourcing jobs to other counties.That according to Senator Harkin

[Aramchek]

7. you don't have any idea what you're talking about, do you?

[Phx_Dem]

10. Yeah, actually I do.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Well, I trust Nate.

He's a numbers guy first. I can respect that. The chips will have to fall where they fall.

[Teaser]

6. It's a range of values

the error bars on his estimate are huge.

my gut says we lose ~ 40, which is well within Nate's MOE.

[vaberella]

9. You speak like there's no chance. n/t

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. I think his house model is flawed.

Mostly because there aren't enough individual House race polls and because the generic ballot algorithm is still registering a huge Republican advantage despite that nearly all such newer polls indicate the generic ballot is either even or nearly even.

It's not his fault - he's just trying to accomplish something which may or may not be all that possible given the data he has to work with. It's not like Presidential races that get polled nearly every day, nor is it even like Senate or Gubernatorial races which get polled frequently. Many house races at this stage aren't polled more than once a month by independent sources.

[Godhumor]

8. Statistical snapshot. It is his commentary that reveals whether he thinks the estimate is "fair"

He doesn't modify the results of his model before showing it, as, hey, that's what it is predicting. However, he usually adds in his comments things like "I think the model is overestimating Republican turnout in x race" or "I have a hard time personally believing the results of this poll, so we'll see if other in the next few weeks support it."

All that said, he gives an approximately 2 out of 3 chance for the Republicans taking over the house.

[Grown2Hate]

13. Snapshot. I completely agree. He only evaluates polls, which give you a sample

of what the voters are presenting at the time. I respect the fact that he isn't trying to predict... he's simply giving you the facts based on the latest information available.

That being said, I think the trend is definitely heading our way. I predict that ultimately we will only lose a few seats in the Senate. I see the west coast trending blue heavily (great recent polls for Boxer, Brown, and Murray). Carnahan appears to be catching Blunt, Conway is gaining on Paul, and Sestak even appears to be creeping on Toomey. Although the midwest is looking worse lately, I am still hopeful. If we GOTV, we'll keep Feingold, Bennet, and sweep in Giannoulias. All it not lost, but GET. OUT. THE. VOTE.