Kerry’s Emerging AfPak Role: Precursor to Secretary of State Gig?

[babylonsister]

http://swampland.time.com/2011/05/17/kerrys-emerging-afpak-role-precursor-to-secretary-of-state/

Kerry’s Emerging AfPak Role: Precursor to Secretary of State Gig?
By Jay Newton-Small Tuesday, May 17, 2011 | View Comments


In recent years, John Kerry seems to have settled into a new role in the Senate. The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee finally got a major chairmanship at the helm of the Foreign Relations Committee. And he’s been in the thick of several major issues from climate change and health care reform to Afghanistan/Pakistan relations. It was Kerry who pushed through $1.5 billion in annual non-military aid to Pakistan. And so it was Kerry who went last week to tell Pakistan that if they don’t find a way to reset relations, all that money – plus $3 billion each year in military aid – could be at risk.

Kerry’s tone was striking. “I emphasized to my Pakistani friends that many in Congress are raising tough questions about our ongoing assistance to the government of Pakistan in light of the events of the past weeks,” he told reporters Monday before returning to Washington.

His comments marked a stark departure from what he was saying three weeks ago, when Kerry told me that the strident position taken by those like Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, who threatened to cut off civilian aid, risked pushing Pakistan into the hands of Islamists. “To a certain degree, a lot of Pakistanis think we’re going to leave and so they’re hedging, and our own statements and policies contribute to their ambivalence,” Kerry said. If enough Pakistanis start to believe we’re going to pull out, he said, “it could get very significantly worse. You could wind up with an Islamist government that has nuclear weapons.”

Kerry’s carefully calibrated words at home and abroad – one timbre for U.S. politicians and another for Pakistanis – show how much his portfolio has expanded in recent years. It wasn’t long ago that the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee really only worried about a domestic impact. Even Joe Biden, Kerry’s predecessor, rarely conducted as many direct AfPak negotiations as Kerry has in the last three years. It was Kerry who convinced Afghan President Hamid Karzai to allow run off elections in 2009. And it was Kerry who secured the release of C.I.A. contractor Raymond Davis earlier this year after he shot and killed two Pakistanis in Lahore. On his latest trip, Kerry secured the return of helicopter parts abandoned at bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound and seized by Pakistani authorities. And before leaving, Kerry told reporters that he was laying the groundwork for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to announce her upcoming visit to the region — an unusual role for someone acting outside the official capacity of the State Department.

Many speculate that Kerry is developing this new voice because he hopes to make it his full time job. Clinton has already said that she’ll be leaving Foggy Bottom after the 2012 elections. Kerry interviewed for — and very much wanted — the job of Secretary of State in 2008. This time, he seems to be the frontrunner to fill the spot after Clinton’s departure. Certainly, in the wake of Richard Holbrooke’s death – and even before it as Michelle Cottle reports – Kerry has taken the lead on AfPak diplomacy. As U.S. troops begin to withdraw from Afghanistan this year and relations with Pakistan hang in the balance, Clinton’s successor must be steeped in the politics and policies of the region. Few are more qualified, or more eager, than Kerry.

[damonm]

1. Don't know about this one:

Kerry would be SUPERB in the position, but I'd hate like hell to lose him in the Senate...

[karynnj]

3. I'm with you - he would be incredibly good in either place

Hi spokesperson again responded that the job that Kerry wants is the one he has and that it is because he is doing an exceptional job in his current position.

One question might be that assuming Democrats retain the Senate, he can continue doing the excellent diplomacy that he has done - while being a strong progressive voice in the Senate. If the Republicans, retake the Senate, there is NO ONE that would be more qualified or deserving of the Secretary of State role - which was also the case in 2009.

[KoKo]

2. Calling DU'er "BLM" to explain what Kerry is doing with this..

She's the best person I've ever seen who knows "Kerry's Heart" and "True Intentions."

WHERE ARE YOU: "BLM/blm"

[BlueIris]

4. I was kind of wondering why the MSM was allowing him to be the voice of reason here.

And personally, I hope it's going...somewhere else for Kerry. Be careful, Senator. We need you.

[AndiMer]

5. Hillary's doing a fine job, thank you

And we SHOULD cut off aid to Pakistan. And Israel. And stop buying Saudi oil.

[babylonsister]

6. No one said she wasn't; according to this, she might personally

decide to pack it in after the 2012 election. Someone has to replace her if that happens.

[Keith Bee]

10. So.....2016?

Or is this yet another iteration of the "Hillary's gonna primary Obama next year" meme?

[karynnj]

11. The focus of the article is John Kerry, working hard as Chair of the SFRC

Whether the good he does or has done would make him Obama's candidate for SOS is the only connection to HRC, who has already said she will not be SOS in a second term.

2016 is too far out to have any feel for what the issues will be or the leading candidates. I suspect that both Kerry and HRC will not run - because of the tremendous drain on anyone who runs. HRC looked exhausted at the end of the primaries = as even her husband, unhelpfully noted. Kerry is a bit older and his wonderful wife 5 years older than he is. HRC will be 8 years older and Kerry 12 years older than when they ran. Though both have their merits - and I will regret there never being a Kerry presidency even though I think he is the best of his generation and you likely will regret that HRC does not become the first woman President.

[karynnj]

7. Does Hillary support anthing you list - I don't think so

I do think that Hillary is likely doing a great job running the state department, including reorganizing how ir performs. I was never a HRC fan, but was impressed when the few people I know who work with the state department were all positive about that part of her job.

That also appears to be what Obama was looking for in naming her SoS and then assigning very senior special envoys to each place where diplomacy was needed. It is possible that that is a good model for Hillary using her strong organizational skills, but not for Kerry. Yet giving him - say, Holbrooke's job of overseeing Afghanistan, Pakistan and India - would not be a fair offer to make for one of the dozen most senior Senators, with the SFRC chair and senior positions on Finance, Commerce, and Small Business.

The other area is setting foreign policy. Here, Clinton has been a strong voice - as is Biden. Kerry is likely one of the people who both Obama and Clinton ask for advice, but he unlike Biden and Clinton is not one of the people in the room when decisions are made.

The problem here is that the MEDIA prefers to cover politics between people rather than the more complicated underlying issue. Here, like several times before, Kerry's 27 years of foreign policy experience and his natural skill as a diplomat, let him contribute to trying to preserve a very troubled relationship.

[center rising]

8. John Kerry would make a helluva SOS

I'd support him in a Massachusetts minute, plus he would sail through confirmation in the Senate.

[karynnj]

9. He would make a helluva SOS, ironically because of his genuinely nice personality

as well as his intelligence and knowledge of foreign policy.

I was impressed when I read the wilileaks documents that covered Kerry - he was in private exactly what he was in public.