Memo to the GOP: Independent Voters Are Required to Win the General Election

[mikekohr]

by Charlie Cook

This article appeared in the "National Review." We ought to pay attention to the opposition play book.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/memo-to-the-gop-independent-voters-are-required-to-win-the-general-election-20110819?mrefid=mostViewedRSS

[TheWraith]

1. They should CC the far left on said memo.

One side is moving to claim independent voters, and frankly, it's not the GOPers.

[mikekohr]

2. Much to my delight and I hope to everyone on this board -nt-

[gateley]

3. The way he breaks this down -- probably 90% of the Democrats

voting will vote for Obama, probably 90% of the Republicans voting will vote for his opposition, and the determining factor will be the Independents. I never understood why the pundits kept saying "Obama is trying to appeal to the Independents" - I really didn't realize how important they were in the final outcome. Hmmmmm.

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mikekohr]

5. Ron Paul is nuts, plain and simple.

In his storied carreer he has passed one bill. One bill. Only Bachman has a worst record of non-accomplishment.

Paul would destroy Medicare, Social Security and every other social program regardless of the pain caused to satisfy his rigid idealogy.

[mikekohr]

6. PPP: Obama Tops Perry, Ties Romney. -Perry is poisen to independants-

Rick Perry is looking increasingly like the Republican favorite for President- he led in the Iowa poll we released this morning and he leads by double digits in the national poll we'll release tomorrow. The biggest beneficiary of Perry's rise? It might be Barack Obama.

In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43. That six point advantage is pretty comparable to Obama's margin of victory over John McCain. Perry has certainly come on strong with Republicans but independents view him negatively already by an almost 2:1 margin, 29/55, and Democrats pretty universally give him bad ratings at a 10/71 spread. As a result Obama leads Perry thanks in large part to a 24 point advantage with independents at 56-32.

It's a different story for Obama when it comes to the match up against Romney. There he can only achieve a tie at 45%, and because there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all likelihood Romney would come out ahead if voters had to go to the polls and really make a decision today. Romney does better than Perry because he holds Obama to only a 9 point advantage with independents, 48-39, and because he loses only 5% of the Republican vote to Obama where Perry loses 10%.

None of the rest of the Republican hopefuls even fare as well as Perry. Obama leads Michele Bachmann by 8 points at 50-42, Herman Cain by 10 points at 49-39, and Sarah Palin by 13 points at 53-40. This poll is more confirmation of what's become a broad trend in our polling- against Romney Obama faces a toss up and against anyone else he's in decent shape for reelection.

more...

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/obama-t...