Politico: The New Iowa Frontrunner?

[flpoljunkie]

The new Iowa frontrunner?

By ALEXANDER BURNS | 8/23/11

PPP finds a three-way split decision for first place in Iowa, with Rick Perry seizing a small -- but, in the world of perceptions, meaningful -- lead:

The race is pretty close four ways in Iowa but Rick Perry is the new favorite among Republican voters in the state. Among announced candidates he's at 22% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Michele Bachmann, and 16% for Ron Paul. Further back are Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

If you throw Sarah Palin into the mix the numbers are pretty similar with Perry at 21%, Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 15%, Paul at 12%, and Palin registering at only 10%.

Pollster Tom Jensen also goes out on a limb to argue that there's no place for Michele Bachmann to go but down:

It's clear that Bachmann has gotten virtually no momentum out of her victory in the Ames Straw Poll. She was in 3rd place when we polled Iowa in June and she's in third place now. Beyond that her favorability numbers in the state have taken a significant hit. In June she had a 53/16 breakdown. Since then her positive number has dropped 6 points from 53% to 47%, and her negative number has climbed 19 points from 16% to 35%. Perry's now winning the voters on the far right that we showed her doing really well with throughout most of June and July. The day of her win in Ames may be remembered as the peak of her campaign.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61913.html

[emulatorloo]

1. To win a Republican Caucus in Iowa, you have to be a crazy Christian

I think Perry can out crazy Bachmann on that issue alone.

[Cosmocat]

2. Bachman is in trouble ...

I said Perry was going to suck the air out of her campaign. And, if Palin comes in, it will drag Bachman down to single digits real quick.

[IcyMedic]

3. Bachmann was never going to win anyway

Even the republicans I know think she is crazy.

[Cosmocat]

4. I agree ...

but minus Perry and Palin, the extreme 20 percent of the party had jelled around her. Romney was smiling like a butchers dog until last weekend ...

[skip fox]

5. Perry's transgressions listed here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x753355

[totodeinhere]

6. None of that will matter to Republican voters. In fact, it might even help him.n/t

[MH1]

7. Perry = "none of the above"

that's why he timed it that way.