Analyst: Bin Laden was living like a prisoner

[Poll_Blind]

CBS News:

(CBS News) Newly-surfaced video of the villa where Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces and had been in hiding for several years show conditions so Spartan it's "a little bit like he was under house arrest" and was virtually "a prisoner," according to CBS News National Security Analyst Juan Zarate.

The video, says CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer, was probably shot secretly by a Pakistani security official.

Zarate told "Early Show on Saturday Morning" co-anchor Rebecca Jarvis the Obama administration "clearly" wants bin Laden's death "to be the start of a push to go after al Qaeda leadership. Not just in Pakistan, but around the world.

--snip--

Zarate observed, "One of the things that surprised me (in viewing the video) is, with bin Laden having been in this compound for about five, maybe six years, it's a little bit like he was under house arrest. He was really a prisoner, in a sense, in this compound. And so, what we may be looking at is a dimension of the prison that he was in for about five years there in Abbottabad."

Short article, worth the full read. Includes video.

PB

[UTUSN]

1. Years in two rooms certainly sounds like being in prison. n/t

[randr]

2. This is exactly what I thought the minute I saw the supposed mansion

I think he was given a choice. Live in hiding or die. The "compound" he occupied was no more than a prison, we have white collar criminals in detention centers with far more amenities.

[bluetex]

3. All those wives...

And kids. "you never take me ANYWHERE" 'We're bored".

Not so sure he didn't tell the seal...."just shoot me, please".

[Shagbark Hickory]

6. LOL!!

[Marr]

4. Well... he was a pretty devout muslim, wasn't he?

I wouldn't expect opulence from anyone who's truly devoted to a faith-- and certainly not from someone who has to project that image to the people around him. There are practical concerns, too. Bin Laden was no idiot, and he certainly would've realized that purchases of unusual levels of luxury would've rung bells that the people looking for him could follow to their source.

[Arkansas Granny]

5. Well, bless his heart. I'll think on this for a while and get back to you later when

I decide whether or not I give a shit.

[Mz Pip]

7. Yeah, I gave it a second

and I don't give a shit.

[blueamy66]

15. I'll third it.

Screw him. He made his bed, he got to lie in it.

Good riddance to trash.

[Poll_Blind]

11. I have little doubt you could care less whether the ISI was setting up bin Laden.

Absolutely none at all. Just keep pumping billions into the corrupt Pakistani government/ISI, right?

:eyes:

PB

[Mz Pip]

22. I hope we do cut aid to Pakistan

certainly anything military.

[Arkansas Granny]

32. Since the OP mentioned none of this, I don't see how you can make these assumptions

based on my reply.

[DeschutesRiver]

34. +100, except

I'm leaning heavily to not giving a shit about how this horny old bearded goat, with his multiple woman setup and proclivity to blasting strangers to death randomly, spent his last years, or how he met his maker.

I don't give a shit when men right here in the USA are imprisoned for life or killed, when they've randomly killed strangers.

I don't give a shit about how these American men lived prior to their killing spree or how they lived after it, or about their motives or justifications, or about how their lives ended. Like the AZ man who shot Gabby, killed the judge and the 9 year old girl, etc, or the other man who shot the Holocaust museum guard on his way to kill even more, or about any or all of them, including the guy from elsewhere who behaved the same way, Osama be Dead.

OBL wasn't stupid; the outcome (how he lived and how he died) reflected the choices he made. That he "lived like a prisoner" is how others describe it - what the horny old bearded goat thought about his circumstances is at present unknown. I'm watching his latest "tapes" on msnbc as I type - he had his remote control, a Just for Men hair dyed beard, and the 18 year old wife given to him as a "gift" on site with him. Most prisoners only get occasional conjungal visits, so looks like he was way ahead on that score alone.

[jaxx]

8. I don't feel sorry for OBL.

[EFerrari]

9. It makes me wonder why he stayed there six years.

[pipi_k]

10. The key word I focused in on....

"living".

As opposed to "not living".

As in 3000+ people on a certain day in 2001.


You make your bed, you lie in it.

:shrug:

[blueamy66]

16. I typed the bed, lie in it too...before I read your post.

I really didn't steal it. :-)

[DavidDvorkin]

12. In which case, someone was imprisoning him

Which points to the Pakistani government, or some part of it.

[Poll_Blind]

35. ^ This

Exactly. And "Pakistani government, or some part of it." is probably the best way to describe the potential culprit because I've used the phrase "Pakistani government/ISI" but even that really doesn't cover the possible actors in this very big and (guaranteed) very strange event.

PB

[Old and In the Way]

13. Assuming he was a 'guest' of the Pakistani government/ISI,

where were the prison guards when the US took bin Laden down? We know the Pakistani 'West Point' was a 5 minute walk up the road, but no one shows up for the 40 minutes or so we are on the ground? Wouldn't there have been a compelling reason for security to turn out and defend their little secret? A guy in the neighborhood was interviewed on MSNBC, he tweeted the event....he said the explosion rocked the neighborhood. How does this go down without a some kind of Pakistani response? Supposedly, we cut the government of Pakistan out of the loop....but there had to have been some assistance from some part of the government to 'stand down' a response to this operation.

[EFerrari]

17. Yep. n/t

[leveymg]

20. I have the feeling that ISI has known for a while that UBL was going to be eliminated en situ.

That would explain their response better than anything else.

[riderinthestorm]

21. Careful... several threads that have started down this road have ended up in the 9/11 dungeon

Not sure why theorizing about this makes it a conspiracy theory but the fact remains that DU mods are moving anything that gets close to discussing the mystery of OBL's holding pen, the Pakistani government's role or non-role, or the US' complicity etc. etc.

[Poll_Blind]

25. Bin Laden might not have needed any. Because of the living situation it would...

...seem a fairly simple bargain might have been struck: Stay where we can keep an eye on you and you can live with your family in a safe spot indefinitely. If he left the house all considerations of safety evaporate.

You ask "Wouldn't there have been a compelling reason for security to turn out and defend their little secret?" and I would respond: Oh, no, no no. No way. Whomever set bin Laden up, the last thing they're going to do is to actually defend him. The moment bin Laden's location is blown, there's no reason to defend him. In fact, they'd have every reason not to defend him because it points the finger back at them for knowing he was there in the first place.

"How does this go down without a some kind of Pakistani response?"

If the Pakistani government/ISI/etc. did have him under a sort of mutual "house arrest" I can guarantee you there was a response- just not one involving trying to stop it. Their response would be to start making sure that nobody can point the finger back at them. If you look at the information coming out about the land purchase from the New Zealand Herald, and from some of the reporting by Graeme Smith and one other (I can't remember) you'll see that (especially in that area) all building has to be signed off by a Pakistani general who is responsible for checking out who is purchasing and why. In fact, it goes quite a bit beyond that as Graeme Smith points out that there are no less than 3 different points in just the building process alone that have to be approved by the Pakistani military. This particular area really is mostly filled with wealthy, retired Pakistani military. Think "Ex CIA gated community" in a nutshell.

"Supposedly, we cut the government of Pakistan out of the loop"

We did.

"...but there had to have been some assistance from some part of the government to 'stand down' a response to this operation."

Nope. In fact, the Pakistani government did not stand down, scrambling jets and other assets to find out who was blowing up shit in Abbatobad. This is the reason why we had state of the art, highly-classified stealth helicopters doing the work: Part of the risk of this mission was not just the raid, but not getting detected and attacked by the Pakistani airforce! President Obama actually contacted the Pakistani government once the raid had begun or was over, I can't recall, to let them know.

Remember, in reality the Pakistani government are just as apt to believe that this was some sort of bizarre Indian commando raid as a U.S. one.

All of these things have been documented by multiple sources and most (if not everything) I've just asserted can be found just looking through the transcripts of the two DoD press conferences which occurred one day after the other, earlier this week.

PB

[Old and In the Way]

29. Good response, but

The absence of any security details or militia action still seems odd. Lets say they were in on it. By having some police/militia response, wouldn't that provide some cover to say, "we didn't know who was staging this attack and we thought there was a covert attack underway by the Indian military on our country. We didn't know who was in the compound. We were as surprised as anyone to learn it was OBL."

In the end, I do think there was a 'stand down' order given. It may be that a select number of trusted Pakistani government/military officials knew and were in a position to order a complete stand down so that the operation could be completed without another 'Blackhawk down' fiasco that would have created even more international headaches for both the US and Pakastani governments.

[Poll_Blind]

30. I will agree to disagree (though I don't think we really disagree on this) but I will say...

...imagine what would happen, how not only the U.S. but India (especially) and the rest of the world would respond if so much as a single U.S. SEAL was shot in the foot by an official representative of the Pakistani military during the raid.

I don't know how much you follow Pakistan but President Obama and many members of his administration, again and again (and even post-raid) have made it very clear the Pakistani government is something they will easily "go around" and "do what they want" if they think they're going to get in the way when it comes to anti-terror operations. Also, recently leaked Gitmo files show that, internally, the U.S. government actually considers the ISI to be a terror organization. Those files are readable, at least, in The Guardian's articles, BTW. They include the full, raw, documents as well.

On the other side of the Pacific, the Indian government has officially (per a government report) pointed the finger at Pakistan's ISI for funding and training the Mumbai terror attackers.

In other words, the Pakistani government/ISI/anyone associated with the Pakistani intelligence community knows that Pakistan for the last couple of years has been on everyone's watch list. In a situation like that, they know anything they do could at least cut off the billions they are receiving from the US, if not possibly incur some form of military response.

PB

[Old and In the Way]

36. No doubt that a "Blackhawk down" type of scenario would have had severe

repercussions for Pakistan. That would have spelled disaster for Pakistan's international reputation if word got out that they were defending OBL against US justice. I suppose a call was made just before the Seals arrived on OBL's doorstep to certain players in the Pakistani government and the orders were given that it would not be in the interests of Pakistan to disrupt the operation in any manner. The lack of any kind of immediate reaction to the security detail/militia/police would seem to bear this out.

[kenny blankenship]

39. Most likely this was a voluntary mutual arrangement

ISI put OBL up in the house on the condition that he kept a low profile in AQ (communicated only courier) and didn't go outside. Maybe he could go out into the walled yard at night. OBL accepted terms like these because the conditions imposed by the host coincided with his interest in staying alive, if not always with his inclination.

This place was no hideout, as I've said before. The building is clearly a residence and its size and walls indicate an important person with security worries stays here. It was not disguised as any other kind of structure, like a school or warehouse or retail business, but instead resembles a fortified embassy grounds of a small shabby country or a minimum security jail. The first thing that came to mind when I saw it was Pablo Escobar's "prison" which he lived in with his family and lieutenants when Colombia put him under house arrest.

As to why Pakistan didn't act during the raid although they surely knew OBL was living there: who would be coming for OBL? Probably they placed some guys in the neighborhood to keep a watch on the house and the street to see what goes on and to ensure the "guest" was abiding by the terms of their arrangement. It would appear though that they didn't keep a response team in the neighborhood to come out guns blazing if there was trouble down at the bin Laden Ranch. There could be sound reasons for not doing that. How many underlings do you want to know that OBL is homesteading in Abbottobad? The more people esp. the more foot soldier types know who lives in that house, the greater the chances that people will gossip and the word will get out, sooner rather than later. Even if you didn't tell them who they were providing security for, that by itself could easily lead them to the correct guess, and then it could be a short while before someone talks. They may have even elected to not even have the place watched at all for that reason. It's a secret of extreme sensitivity.

Now if trouble comes to the Bin Laden Ranch, you know beforehand that it will be wearing an American uniform. They probably expected it to come in the form of bombs from the sky, not a commando raid. So, once you hear shooting or explosions the damage is already done because the US knows where he is and that you, Pakistan's ISI, were harboring him. What would it profit ISI to try to interfere at that point?
Even if the US doesn't retrieve bin Laden's body or never heard a report from the raiders that he'd been killed, rushing to fire on the US Seal team would tend to confirm that they had come to the right place. The death of Bin Laden doesn't hurt Pakistan. The US knowing Pakistan is harboring Bin Laden is what hurts Pakistan. If you can't keep the US from finding out that Bin Laden is there, then the next highest goal is to maintain plausible deniability. The Pakistani govt is now doing its best to deny that they knew he was there. (And actually I believe the civilian govt when they say they didn't know -they're not really in charge of things over there.) But shooting at American helicopters and killing American special forces as they try to extract themselves from the compound would make the civilian govt's task of covering for ISI close to impossible. They might even refuse to try. The worst case for Pakistan might be that they are actually successful in wiping out the mission. It's not like the US military won't know what happened to it-they'll be watching the whole thing in real time. Pakistan will then have made an enemy they can't really afford. The gravy train of US aid will be over forever, and Pakistan will have just made the To-Do list at CIA.

It would be natural for a sovereign state to rush to shoot back at unknown attackers in the night, but in this case there are reasons why Pakistan might conclude -even in advance- that it would be inadvisable.

[Old and In the Way]

41. Good points.

I pretty much agree with everything you said in your post. I just thought it was strange that local police/militia who probably don't know who the the guest is in their neighborhood, wouldn't have showed up at the scene to investigate what was going down. Could be that they got a call to not intervene.

[spanone]

14. no, he was living like an international terrorist

[leveymg]

18. If the Obama administration "clearly" wants bin Laden's death "to be the start of a push to go after

al Qaeda leadership. Not just in Pakistan, but around the world", then they should have taken every effort to capture and interrogate him, not kill him, rendering what he knows useless.

Since 9/11, the SOP with "high value" al-Qaeda targets has been to either render testimony useless (by torturing detainees), destroy evidence, or kill eye witnesses. If accurate intelligence collection and preservation of evidence were actually the point of these operations, U.S. intelligence would have acted very differently.

[riderinthestorm]

24. Did you see most of those other threads got sent into the 9/11 dungeon?

Interesting leveymg.

[leveymg]

26. Which threads are you talking about?

:hi:

[riderinthestorm]

28. This one comes to mind

Was Bin Ladin under house arrest? by tinrobot

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=125&topic_id=314433

[Old and In the Way]

31. Maybe the end of the Bush GWOT (c) and the start of a new methodology

based on intelligence and surgical responses rather than heavy handed military solutions?

I think we know why OBL was never destined to be captured alive - there was just too much baggage and insider information that he had that would have required this country to face our own demons. It was never going to happen. Just like Saddam. It was never about serving justice and the pursuit of truth. It was about containment of the knowledge and truth.

Obama is, if nothing else, all about looking forward and trying to get our immediate past decades behind us. I understand that the forces against Obama, the Democrats, and the progressive Left would use their billions to savage any attempt to expose the GWOT as a sophisticated con that effectively transferred trillions in our national wealth to the corporate bottom lines of the MIC and certain very wealthy families in the ME. By avoiding the truth, we'll just have to relearn this lesson again at some point in the future. Bill Clinton shut down the BCCI investigation...look how that turned out for him and us.

[riderinthestorm]

33. Here's another very interesting thread by randr that leveymg, blm and others

contributed some very interesting remarks on....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=439&topic_id=1033188

I keep coming back to the thought that OBL's holding pen is the result of so much more than just a simple deal between the Pakistani government and OBL (ie, if OBL keeps AQ terrorism out of Pakistan, they'll let him hide out in plain sight).

The thread I linked to has some really interesting stuff (and did not go into the 9/11 dungeon)....

[Old and In the Way]

37. As always, follow the money.

It's going to be interesting to see what follows the chapter, "The Death of bin Laden". Will it be "The Files of bin Laden"?

[scarletwoman]

38. Excellent post. +1,000 (nt)

[FLPanhandle]

19. Of course he was.

That the lifestyle of most folks living in hiding from the law.

Also, why when caught some fugitives think it's a relief.

[JoePhilly]

23. Looks nicer than a cave. nt

[Generic Other]

27. Someone in Pakistani government was paid off to provide safe haven

Probably, no one else knew Osama was there. That makes it necessary for him to hide his identity to all.

[zbdent]

40. Maybe because ...

unlike George W. Bush, Barack Obama decided to hunt down ObL?

[killbotfactory]

42. It's lonely being the worlds most #1 wanted terrorist criminal.

Poor guy.