Could there be a no confidence vote over the hacking and would Cameron survive it?

[yellowcanine]

It seems to me that Cameron has gotten himself entwined in the Murdoch hacking scandal. Labor is baying for blood, Conservatives seem to be nervous, and the Liberal Democrats look as if they could bolt the coalition government if Cameron can't untangle himself from the scandal.

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. It doesn't seem likely at this stage, to me

Cameron's basic problem is that he hired Andy Coulson, while in opposition, and then gave him a government post after becoming PM. People looked askance at the first hiring, and his staff got a general warning from the Lib Dems that Coulson knew about the hacking, and they may have got specific details from The Guardian, and more about police bribery. But it is quite possible that those details weren't passed on to Cameron, and he can also point to the (now obviously crooked) police inquiry that said it was just the one reporter. And he has managed to withdraw support for Murdoch etc. before it became too embarrassing.

This affair has damaged Cameron, certainly, but I can't see it as getting to the 'no confidence' level unless some major new aspect came along (eg News International hacking on behalf of the Tories, or evidence they suppressed inquiries into police corruption).

[BonnieJW]

2. How about the fact that he

attended Rebekah Brooks' wedding? It seems he's pretty cozy with the entire Murdoch clan.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. So did Gordon Brown - even after she'd got his child's medical details

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jun/14/rebekah-wade-marriage-guest-list

It shows how powerful Brooks and News International were - the Prime Minister couldn't afford a feud with them.

Cameron is closer to Brooks than that, however - he had dinner with her (and James Murdoch) over the Christmas period. But again, that wouldn't rise to the level of 'no confidence' - they are couples of a similar age (Mr. Brooks was at Eton, Cameron's private school, a few years ahead of him) who live within a few miles of each other, and who interact in their professional lives, so they can just say they are on friendly terms. There's no rules that politicians cannot have any outside contact with people who might want a decision to go a certain way; but the more it's known about, the more the public can decide if it feels right to them.

[enlightenment]

3. 'On behalf of the Tories' - ah now, wouldn't that be nice!

I'd love to see Cameron go down in flames, frankly.

[yellowcanine]

5. The details on Coulson are more troubling than you say here.

Cameron was warned directly by Nick Klegg and it is very hard to believe that Lord Ashdown's warnings and those of the Guardian were not passed on to Cameron. That is just not the kind of thing aides of a PM are going to ignore, particularly when it comes from more than one source, one of the sources being a ruling coalition partner. This is just not believable. And Cameron's "denial" was less than convincing, saying he was not privy to the "specific details" of the information regarding Coulson. What the heck does that mean? He will have to be a lot more forthcoming than that if he hopes to put this behind him. The PM Question Time will indeed be interesting this week. No more hiding behind the skirts of the hapless Jeremy Hunt! Cameron's decision to allow "poor Jeremy" to face the music alone was a chicken shit move and there is no getting around it. At the least he should have been there for support - he is the one who hired Coulson, not Jeremy Hunt. And he really should have made a statement of his own and offered a genuine apology for the tin eared political decision to hire Coulson. It may or may not be too late for that now. Certainly anything resembling a repeat of his "no specific details" faux denial will not cut it at Question Time. As for "major new aspect" we may not have long to wait should Rebeccah Brooks decide to cut her losses and take down a PM to save her hide. If she also talked to Cameron about Coulson and decides to sing about it things could get very interesting indeed.