Krugman Blog- Psychodrama Queens

[n2doc]

July 12, 2011, 1:25 PM
Psychodrama Queens

Greg Sargent tells us that the White House is promoting a Gerald Seib piece which summarizes the political strategy thus:

A big deal would reassure independents who fear the country is out of control; position Obama as the adult who made Washington work again; allow the President to tell Dems he put entitlements on sounder financial footing; and clear the decks to enact other priorities later.


What I learn from political scientists is that this is all fantasy — albeit a kind of fantasy beloved of political pundits, who love to imagine that complicated psychodramas are playing out in the minds of voters. Well, here’s a little secret: most voters don’t sit around reading Clive Crook columns or debating the Bowles-Simpson plan. They have a gut sense — things are getting better or they’re getting worse — and mainly vote on that basis. They’re not paying attention at all to this stuff.

Wait, it gets worse. Even if voters were trying to make decisions based on things like fiscal responsibility, how likely are they to have remotely accurate information? Not at all if they watch Fox; but the truth is that even if they watch a reputable network, or for that matter even if they read the Times the way most people read it, getting fast impressions rather than scanning articles carefully for the nuances hidden in the 12th paragraph, they probably have only the vaguest sense of what’s going on.

more
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/12/psychodrama-queens/

Key comment:

Oh, and about independent voters: if you think that they’re strong-minded, solid citizens repelled by the partisanship — well, there may be a guy like that somewhere in America. But by and large, given the vast differences between the parties these days, independent voters are basically confused, clueless people — not exactly the kind of people likely to take reassurance from Obama’s stance on entitlement programs. On the contrary, they’re the sort of people likely to be stampeded by “Obama wants to raise the Medicare age!”

[sasha031]

1. 90% of independent are low information voters

they react to any boogy man that comes across their screen as a campaign add.