I continue to see Obama as a shoe-in for a second term.

[Stinky The Clown]

There is no one who can mount a credible run against him. Bachpalerry would lose steam very fast when they have to face the general population.

Mittens will rightly be seen as a rich dilettante and job killer, with a real record of having done so.

As for a primary challenge, I have but one word: "who?" There are many that would be popular, but none that can win who would also be willing to run against him.





Yes, there will be anxious moments. Yes, the campaign will have some tense moments, some waxes and wanes, some ebbs and flows. But that's how the script is written, right? That's how they keep us in the game. Biting our nails while worrying that our guy will take the prize.





Now, as to the World Series, I also have some picks . . . . .








And Survivor . . . . . .






And Big Brother . . . . . .










The SooperBowl . . . . .

[Lucky 13]

1. I do too.

I continue to wish for an alternative. A primary. Any glimpse of respect for the left.

Maybe in 2016. A girl can dream.

[Sheepshank]

12. what does your upside down flag avatar mean? n/t

[Harmony Blue]

15. The nation is in distress

It is a respectful way to show, with the flag, how our country is in trouble.

[Lucky 13]

25. That all is not well in America.

Up is down, right is left.

I don't recognize this country anymore.

[Deep13]

2. I continue to see his reelection as impossible until unemployment falls below 7%. nt

[City Lights]

3. Me too. eom

[Richardo]

4. *shoo-in

[stevedeshazer]

5. +1

[Stinky The Clown]

22. Thanks for that spot on and cogent reply to the substance of this thread.

It is replies like yours that are the lifeblood of any discussion forum. Incisive and thought provoking.

Wow.

I am *really* in aww.



























Yeah, I know its misspelled.

[SoCalDem]

29. Beat me to it

:rofl:

that one's right up there with:
Cow-tow & Tow the line

[Richardo]

32. "Chomping at the bit"

"Doggie dog world"

:D

[DirkGently]

35. Don't loose control, you might brake something.*

* like the "bumber" on your car.

[RebelOne]

37. Right on. Obama wouldn't fit in a shoe. n/t

[newfie11]

6. Then there are the folks who are so confused by Obamas moving further to the right.

I have heard friends that voted for him saying I am not voting for president next year because democrat or republican it is all the same policies. All are owned by the biggest money donator.

edit:typo

[Safetykitten]

7. Sorry, not happening. Now it's just a matter of how big of a landslide it will be.

[WI_DEM]

8. this is the summer of Obama's discontent, but if the job picture can improve in the next year

then yes, he can be re-elected. If not, he could have a tough time.

[Deep13]

11. How can it? The Rs have hamstrung the means to improve it.

And Obama signed off on it.

[fasttense]

9. Yes, he will get re-elect.

He will be voted in for a 2nd term. There is no doubt about it. Anyone who says otherwise probably thought McCain and Palin had a chance.

But he will make it by the skin of his teeth.

The only obstacle that I see to his actually serving as President for a 2nd term is the dancing Supremes.

If Mitt (or Parry?) object to his re-election on some made-up legal complaint and take it to the Supremes, the Supremes will pick their buddy. And somehow I don't see their buddy being Obama. The black robed junta has done it before and Americans let them. So, I see this route to a RepubliCON presidency in 2012 as a strong possibility.

[Sheepshank]

10. I think Obama has some real positive merits

some extrelemly good bills and programs that have passed under his watch. Those who complain he doesn't 'man up enough'....I think are looking for a Chuck/Will Rogers/Perry kinds of testosterone, would do well to look at his actual records. For me it not a matter of voting for the lesser of two evils. It's voting for the guy who represents my issues the best.

Doesn't hurt that he is running against the mad house of Republican hopefuls.

[Stinky The Clown]

16. Sorry, but he *doesn't* man up. He leads from behind. Those are right wing terms, but I agree.

It is what my sig line means and it has been my sig line long before those terms were ever said publicly.

Obama is NOT a leader. He's a figure.

[Stinky The Clown]

44. A note for the sewer dwellers who are having their fun with this thread over in their clubhouse:

This isn't at all inconsistent. The issue is that you have no sense of nuance. Here's a more obvious way to consider this, for you of limited mental capacity: Prediction is not the same as desire.

Gawd, you people are pitiful.

[Little Star]

13. That's the plan. He will without one doubt get his second term.

[onehandle]

14. Yep. And a teabagger will win in 2016.

My money is on Marco Rubio, still.

[Little Star]

20. I don't know if a teabagger will win in 2016 but...

The republican A team will come out to play then and not before. My money is on Jeb Bush in 2016.

[JustAnotherGen]

17. As long as it's not a combination

Of Huntsman / Pataki . . .


Pataki made up for a softer performance in New York City and Long Island by running up a decisive margin north of the city, especially among upstaters disenchanted with Cuomo.<8> Pataki was the first governor elected since Franklin D. Roosevelt to not come from one of the five boroughs of New York City.

People like Pataki (none NYC) NEVER win 'The City' - but he did.
And he appealed (strongly) to Western (I'm from there until about 5 years ago) and Central NY'ers.

NY is a good state of blending - Large City, Industrial Towns, 'Horse Farm Gentry', Real Farms, "Mountain People", diversity in terms of race, tiny villages, spiritualists (Chatauqua) and Hasidic Jews, and - and - and . . .

He was the governor for NY (BLUE) State for three years.


And with the ways the rules have changed for the Republican Party Primary system - It's completely reasonable for these two to overtake any of the others in the field. Including Romney - ya know? Romney Care.

Look up Pataki's Revere America.

[MrTriumph]

18. His snowball melted with the extension of the Bush tax cuts for the rich.

x

[alc]

19. "general population" won't choose

It will be the "general population" of battleground states. I don't see Obama taking red states or any repub taking blue states. So it will be fought in the few other states (7 or so states) to get the required electoral votes. Issues those states care about will be critical, and money, pandering, and the economy can push the states either way.

Some of those states went big for Obama last time and there is likely to be some disappointment to overcome. Not "liberal disappointment" where "the lesser of two evils" argument will suffice, but more general expectations like transparency, improved racial relations (in various incarnations depending on the individual voter), "hope & change".

[closeupready]

21. I disagree.

nt

[Arkansas Granny]

23. I see him winning, but I think he's going to have to fight for it.

[NV Whino]

24. Grammar Natzi checking in

It's "shoo-in."

[SoCalDem]

30. NAZI..(spelling nazi, checking in)

:rofl:

[Safetykitten]

31. That had to be a joke with that spelling right? I mean that was...wow.

[NV Whino]

47. !

:rofl:

[ileus]

26. Landslide....much like 96.

[Safetykitten]

27. Try 1980.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/ElectoralCollege1980.svg

[deaniac21]

38. Yep, we thought everybody would see him as crazy. We did

they didn't.

[seabeyond]

28. i dont see a problem with obama's reelection, either. nt

[SoCalDem]

34. I hope you are right..

I see the same-ole states being "problems"

http://electoralmap.net/2012/myPrediction.php

[wuushew]

45. Florida and Ohio are very likely to go red

that is a guaranteed 272 right there.

There are many many bad outcomes possible on that map.

[BlueDemKev]

33. I don't mean to be a wet blanket here.....

....but you guys need to wake up and face reality. NO INCUMBENT can be a "shoo-in" when unemployment is stuck at 9% (regardless of who's fault it is). Every poll has Obama running neck-and-neck against Perry, Romney, and Paul, and he's only four points ahead of Bachmann. Furthermore, unemployment remains extremely high in key battleground states that are always must-wins for Democrats: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and California. In PENNSYLVANIA, OBAMA'S APPROVAL RATING IS 35% (W. DISAPPROVAL AT 52%).

Remember around this time in 1979 when we laughed at Reagan? Carter was struggling thru tough economic times, but hey, the Republicans were about to put up a right-wing nutjob who was a former actor? Kennedy's primary challenge may have helped weaken Carter, but the fact is the Democrats totally underestimated people's frustration with the economy and were looking for a "strong leader" who would make things happen.

Furthermore, people currently believe that the government is not able to solve the nation's economic problems and may be very receptive to Rick Perry's "I'll make D.C. very inconsequential in your lives" bulshit.

This is going to be a very tough re-election battle. Get ready.

[unblock]

36. lichtman's keys continue to strongly favor obama's re-election.

as it stands, republicans have only 3 keys; they need 6.
if gdp is negative next summer, republicans will have a 4th key.

but it's not clear where they can get two more keys.

they deperately need a credible democratic challenger and/or a 3rd party candidate who can get 5% of the vote and/or a major scandal. none of these appear likely. i can see a democrat making a token primary challenge but this would quickly become a non-event. obama will easily raise so much more money that no challenger will be able to mount a credible campaign.


http://ww2.gazette.net/stories/05272011/policol193154_32542.php

...

The following three keys now count against the incumbent party:

- The party's losses in the 2010 midterm elections cost it mandate Key 1.

- The weak economy during Obama's first year in office portends the loss of long-term economy Key 6.

- Obama has not quite regained the magic of his campaign, and now falls just short of gaining the incumbent charisma/hero Key 12.

...

The winning of Key 11 thus strengthens my early prediction that the president will secure re-election in 2012. Only a historically unprecedented reversal of fortune could alter the verdict of the keys.

[SoCalDem]

46. Keys are one thing, but the electoral map is another

http://electoralmap.net/2012/myPrediction.php

[FreeJoe]

39. I've found Intrade.com to be a pretty reliable barometer

I long ago learned that judging elections based on what I saw around me didn't work. The cross section of people I deal with is too skewed. Polling is much better. I've found Intrade to be an even better predictor than polling.

At the moment, it shows President Obama with a roughly 50% chance of being reelected. That's down from about 60% a few months ago. It seems unbelievable that enough people would vote for the likes of Perry or Bachmann. On the other hand, it seems unbelievable that a president presiding so impotently over such a bad economy would get reelected. Personally, I don't know anyone that has changed which party they will vote for, but I do know a lot of dejected Democrats that voted in the past but might not do so this time.

[MilesColtrane]

40. "There is no one who can mount a credible run against him"

Romney is already doing so.

He is currently polling within a couple of points of Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Romney's campaign has a third of Obama's cash on hand, but that will rise as the Republican field narrows. Romney also has $200 million of personal wealth to draw from if need be.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/summary.php

[sfpcjock]

41. I was thinking about this yesterday and sort of agree.

We have to see what the October surprise is, but whatever it is, Obama will react better to it than his goofy (so far) challengers. As an example, I would give Libya. Obama made a big speech about the touchy Middle East from Egypt in 2009. When the region blew up in January he didn't panic. When Libya became a bloodbath he didn't panic, but instead sent in a measured high-tech US air response. Then he dumped it in NATO's hands. Boner was squealing at the time. Obama didn't panic. 5 months later look at the results--almost textbook. This is my example of intelligent leadership.

[Remember Me]

42. If true, that just shows what a dreadful situation we're in

I'm sick of Republican presidents, no matter which party they're from. Obama's just a kinder, gentler fascist in my book. And barely that.

[JackRiddler]

43. This will almost certainly be determined by the state of the economy in summer-fall 2012.

And right now all the indicators are bad.

And much of this can indeed be blamed on Obama admin policy, especially the lack of courage to challenge the dominant narrative of deficit spending as the primary problem.