We have now a bonna fide revolution

[nadinbrzezinski]

that is not contained in one country. To get an idea of the geography, please consult to provided map, realize Tuniz is not technically in the ME, why it is not in the map.



So far we have revolts and rumors of revolts in both Egypt and Jordan (and Tunis)... from a real politik POV Tunis really doesn't matter, but Egypt and Jordan do. They are considered critical allies in the US and also are at peace with Israel.

This may expand, it is a tinder box... next candidates for this fun may actually be Saudi Arabia and yes to a point Syria and Lebanon. (Lebanon has seen a few revolts to)

It will really depend on who takes over after these governments fall just how much the balance of power changes. But the worst case scenario is that when all is said and done we have theocracies takung over. I don't think we will have a wave of theocracies taking over, but one or two would not surprise me.

Of course this is also not taking into account the shia\ sunni split. That will add something to the dynamic.

Regardless while I celebrate people finally going WE'VE HAD IT... when the dust settles it may be a very dangerous place... or (my hope) we will have a true democratic revolution take over. Most likely we will have a combo.

But pay attention to that map... and realize that yes... it matters. Not just because of the oil, by the way.

But for the moment we have a Tunis revolt, one well under way in Egypt, one well under way in Jordan and one well under way in Lebanon... pepto bismol comes to mind.

[MrScorpio]

1. Apparently, it's throughout the Muslim world

Which, of course, is much larger than the Middle East.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Yep, so far I have tracked them to the places

mentioned... but we are having a scary dynamic developing... as any popular revolt is a throw of the dice.

[Pharaoh]

17. I think this is about unity Consciousness

Which is bigger than boundary's and religion. It's about basic human rights and dignity.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. You will enjoy this

The Chrysalis Effect.

http://www.amazon.com/Chrysalis-Effect-Metamorphosis-Global-Culture/dp/1845193113

Exactly on that wavelength.

[Codeine]

3. Bona fide. nt

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Codeine]

8. +1

Ain't it the truth?

[petronius]

16. I wouldn't be so dismissive. this sounds like a real

crossing-the-Rubicon sort of moment, to me...

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. It is... the amount of wide spread demonstrations

is not limited to ONE place.

And now Rachel is covering it... it took Angle, I guess, a little to get in place.

Crossing the Rubicon is exactly what this is.

[Blue-Jay]

26. Never insult a "historian".

They study history and stuff.

[Codeine]

39. Trends. The Guns of August. nt

[SidDithers]

29. +1...

remember when war between the Koreas was "pretty much imminent"?

Good times.

Sid

[Jackpine Radical]

33. As a matter of fact, I do, although I was rather young in 1950.

[SidDithers]

34. Yeah, but I'm talking about pronouncements made last month...nt

Sid

[Jackpine Radical]

35. I know, Sid. I know.

I'm just feeling all the aches in my aging carcass tonight.

[SidDithers]

36. Ahh, gotcha...

take good care of yourself :hi:

Sid

[Jackpine Radical]

37. I got my &^%$#*@ tractor stuck in deep, hard packed snow

this afternoon & ended up digging the beast out with a snow shovel. Got 'er out, though.

[Pab Sungenis]

4. The Shia/Sunni split doesn't factor in.

This appears to be a secular revolution, which is even more shocking. And the more countries erupt, the more likely others are to join them.

This could be amazing, or it could be terrifying.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Yes it could be amazing or really damn scary

the number of Muslim brotherhood arrested overnight in Egypt and their role in Jordan (albeit minor so far)...

It bears watching because if it remains secular this will scare beyond the muslim world... 1848 (and the year the effects got started, 1849) fully come to mind.

[anamandujano]

27. Here's hoping it's amazing.

Things need to get better for the ordinary person the world over. We can all get along.

The troublemakers need to go.

[gateley]

6. Thanks! This makes it easier to "get it". nt

[Frustratedlady]

7. Saudi Arabia will just call the U.S. to come and protect them.

Biden's famous saying comes to mind.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. We are way too overextended to do much long term

that is the truth.

[Mimosa]

42. What's Biden's 'famous saying'? n/t

[somone]

11. Somebody tell Obama not to be all Reagan-like and send troops over there

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. I will be shocked if a carrier group in the med is not on alert

but to do evac people. We do not have enough troops to go play cowboy right now...

But using the carrier group to get American citizens out will not shock me. Keep your eyes open to NATO navies mobilizing to do same.

[lonestarnot]

23. I have a friend who was buried in that bullshit and lived to talk about.

I wonder how many here have friends and family in the middle of the mess getting ready to blow.

[Tikki]

13. Like Captain Jack says...."The 21st Century...is when everything changes"...

we can only hope for the better for all of us.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LREJZOryL0



Tikki

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Thanks for the link, since I missed the cultural reference

:-)

[Occulus]

21. Torchwood is fantastic.

You should try to find a way to watch the episodes. Great show.

[DeSwiss]

14. K&R n/t

[Major Hogwash]

18. What does Sarah P Leathers think we should do? Quick, someone send her a tweet and ask her!!

Oh, Sarah, we're waiting!!!!

What should the proper reaction of the United States be??

Sarah??
Yooo hoooo, we're waiting!!!

Someone send her a moose-a-gram, contact Mama Grizzly.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. The battle of Armageddon is now

a few nukes I suspect... anybody checked THE index though?

Rapture Index 173
Net Change +1

Updated Jan 24, 2011

You'd think that rumors of war in the holy land would make the rapture index go up... due to THAT.

http://www.raptureready.com/rap2.html

Yes I check for fun... they are just down damn funny.

[Major Hogwash]

20. Gird up your loins . . . with new Armageddon pants . . . from those folks at Procter & Gamble.

It may not be a Proctor, but it's a Gamble!

Available now in new larger sizes!!!
They now come in "WHOA!", "WHAT THE FUCK!?!?!", and "HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!" sizes.

Because when it comes to crapping yer pants, one size does not fit all.

[lonestarnot]

25. Now that was fucking funny!

:rofl:

[DeSwiss]

40. Hahahahahaha!!!!!!

[lonestarnot]

24. She's looking at Russia from her porch.

[ChazII]

28. Interesting reading on this subject at Shia Chat

http://www.shiachat.com/forum/index.php?/topic/234984508-brothers-and-sisters-your-freedom-is-near/

It is good to read what other voices have to say.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. Interesting indeed

thanks for sharing

[ChazII]

43. You're welcome. n/t

[toddaa]

41. Very interesting link

But that reads as if this is a Shia uprising. All revolutions are about disenfranchised people finally saying enough. If it does become a Shia/Sunni conflict, it will take a very ugly turn.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. Thanks Rachel, add Yemen to the list

[unkachuck]

38. K&R....n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. Full list of countries

Algeria, Tunis, Egypt, Lebanon and Yemen... so far.

[TheMadMonk]

45. How carefully you avoided saying the "I" name.

The sane outcome would be for the "I" place to make reasonable settlement on the settlement issue and pull back to a contiguous border. And for the neighbours to agree that it is reasonable.

The insane one is an orgy of mutual anhilation rendering much of the area depicted in that map uninhabitable. Uninhabitable, but not necessarily unexploitable with suitable hazmat precautions. Particularly with a "relaxed" attitude towards worker safety.

Consider those who are calling the shots around the world. (Or believe they are, with enough backing to make little difference.) And figure out for yourself where on that spectrum any "final resolution" is likely to fall given the current climate on both sides. And consider all the various parties most likely to be left standing (after a fashion) in the aftermath. Including many current proponents who'd have no problems with the current inhabitants of the "I" place being forcefully expelled for the nth time. Mileage is Mileage.

The "Kissingers" of the world who were just barely outvoted and prevented from a global exchange by the prospect of a non-viable outcome in the sixties are seeming to find less oposition to what would be highly localised uses of nuclear devices today. Even as many as 100 nukes detonated in that locale would have a fallout effect little different to Chernobyl outside the zone. (Unless of course they were deliberately detonated to enhance fallout.) And I'm sure some idiot has considered the idea of a little "nuclear winter" being just the thing to offset Climate Change.