Today in London a large gathering of foreign ministers will be attempting to resolve some of the contradictions
The Guardian, Tuesday 29 March 2011
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Today in London a large gathering of foreign ministers and other representatives will be attempting to resolve some of the contradictions which they themselves have created, while a smaller group of the countries forming the steering committee for what is now a Nato operation will also be meeting. The main issue before them is to decide at what point Nato action ceases to be about protecting civilians from Gaddafi and begins to be about prosecuting a war on behalf of Libyan insurgents who appear unable to take and hold ground on their own.
The rebels have been their own worst enemies in this regard. Three military commanders seem to be functioning independently, if not as rivals, while the regular troops who defected in the west of the country have not been committed to operations in an organised way. Undisciplined charges by pick-up trucks are not a strategy. The political coherence of the National Transitional Council has, meanwhile, reportedly been at times very strained.
Russia, Turkey, and perhaps also Italy and Germany, have made up their minds that the line between civilian protection and regime change has already been crossed. Anglo-French tactics can be criticised, but surely there should be no disagreement that the worst possible outcome in Libya would be partition, with a Gaddafi-held zone holding on for months or years. The objection to the Russian and Turkish positions is that they make such an outcome more likely. The critical question is whether the people of western Libya want Gaddafi or not. If they do not, and that is the way the limited evidence certainly points, then policies like immediately winding down the military effort or facilitating a ceasefire will merely give Gaddafi a second wind, unless there are other, relatively peaceful levers that could then remove him, which seems far from guaranteed.
The emerging compromise may be that for a few more days the current rules of
engagement, allowing ground attacks on military assets not directly or actively threatening civilians, will continue in force but then a narrower interpretation will prevail. That gives Nato planes a slender window to tip the military balance further against Gaddafi. Thereafter it may well get much more difficult, and, if it does, some countries may have much to answer for.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/29/libya-narrowing-options-editorialThe war in Libya: who controls the skies?
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The North Atlantic Council (NAC), Nato's governing body, yesterday issued something called a NAC Execution Directive, which gave the order for a Canadian general, Charles Bouchard, who has been running the no-fly zone since Friday, to assume command of air strikes as well. In fact, Nato sources say that the actual handover of command of this most controversial element of the western role in Libya will not happen for some days. "It should be done by the end of the week," one official said.
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These operations have been coordinated rather than commanded by the US. In practice, the British and French have been choosing their own targets. For the time being, they can continue to act as the rebels' air force, blowing up pro-Gaddafi forces ahead of the insurgents as they race west along the coastal road.
We do not know what new rules of engagement were agreed in Brussels on Sunday, but it is hard to imagine that the 28 Nato member states, including Turkey and Germany, would have signed off on the very liberal French and British interpretation of the "all necessary measures" to protect civilians in UN security council resolution 1973.
All the signs are that the new rules of engagement will be more restrictive, and not allow Nato pilots to target pro-Gaddafi forces if they do not represent an immediate threat to civilians. Until those rules actually come into operation, the French and British will race to do as much damage as possible to what remains of Gaddafi's military machine.
UPDATE: The Guardian's security editor Richard Norton-Taylor says that British defence officials privately concede that the rules of engagement may be made much more restrictive when Nato takes over. They say Bouchard is expected to give a press conference outlining the new position on Thursday, which may mean he does not actually take command until then.http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2011/mar/28/libya-nato