General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTop 15 Dem Candidates for 2020 According to the WaPo
Spoiler -- Sanders is 1, Biden 2, Warren 3, Gillibrand 4.
Polls from Gallup, CNN, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University all showed Trump's approval rating between 33 percent and 37 percent among the lowest numbers of his entire presidency. And that same CNN poll showed Democrats taking a nearly unheard-of 18-point lead in the 2018 midterm generic ballot, becoming just the latest poll to show a very bad environment for not just Trump but his party, too.
And even one of Trump's better polls from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal showed that just 36 percent of Americans said they would at least "probably" vote to reelect Trump in 2020. A majority (52 percent) said they would at least "probably" vote for someone else. While just 18 percent said they would "definitely" vote for Trump, 38 percent said they would "definitely" vote against him.
Given all of that, and with just one year left until the unofficial start of the 2020 presidential race, you can bet a slew of Democrats are starting to get anxious to run against Trump. And depending on how that 2018 election turns out, you may see a bunch of them get into the race quickly. The field appears certain to be extremely big and wide open, and it could reward those who can lock down a base of support before others with claims to those same bases get in.So whose stock is rising and falling at this early juncture? We ranked the top 15 possible Democratic nominees three months ago, and today we do it again.
As usual, they're ranked in ascending order of likelihood to win the Democratic nomination.
Full list of rankings at the link.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/12/22/the-top-15-democratic-presidential-candidates-for-2020-ranked/?utm_term=.ecc6097960df
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Even the writer admits that age will be a factor (Sanders, Brown, Biden). They may all run, but it's unlikely any of those three can win the nomination. Sanders, for one, is not even a Democrat, and I don't think the DNC will make the same mistake again and allow him to run as one.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)him to run again.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
StevieM
(10,500 posts)Give or take a couple.
I am currently leaning towards Tom Steyer.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)The best way to prevent Bernie from running again is to add as much of his economic and campaign financing agenda to ours as possible.
He ran last time because there was a large popular demand for what he stood for and nobody else was going to speak to it. The fact that he didn't develop an adequate approach to winning the votes of people of color is actually a sign that he DIDN'T want to run.
Bernie is not the problem and trying to make this party a Bernista-free zone is not going to help us win in '18 OR '20.
Bernistas and non-Bernistas(I'm not talking about 'bros here-they're a lost cause and may never have even been Sanders supporters at all) will have to work together. That can be achieved without anyone in this party being de-centered or betrayed.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)if the Democratic Party requires someone running as a Democrat to actually BE a Democrat? It seems not only reasonable, but pretty basic.
Bernie does not get to dictate the Democratic Party's agenda. Democrats do that. If he wants a say, it's pretty simple what he needs to do.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)And it's not about Bernie dictating anything. This has never been about things Bernie supports and no other Dems support.
I get it that his campaign didn't say enough on the stump about historic and continuing oppression(he had a clear commitment to anti-oppression in his actual platform, his supporters have the same views on social oppression as anyone in the party who didn't support the guy, but he didn't communicate it in his speeches and his campaign did not do an effective enough job at listening to communities of color and to women or speaking specifically to them.
That's why I say he should NOT run again.
But while he shouldn't run again, this party needs to add and COMMUNICATE THAT IT HAS ADDED a significant amount of his economic ideas and his commitment to reducing the role of corporate power in politics-and shape all of that into proposals that account and adjust for the effects of historic oppression.
The idea is to add that on economic justice to our existing social justice commitment-and also move at least slightly away from "bear any burden, fight any foe" on foreign policy. It's not about wanting anyone to take over, it's about blending the best with the best.
Doing THAT is the best way to make sure he doesn't run, and we lose nothing by doing that.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)It's true that they emphasized (NOT added) many positions on corporate power (for example). It's debatable whether or not they did it because of Sanders; after all, he doesn't and never has owned those positions all by himself. I know some Berniecrats think so, but it's demonstrably untrue.
Yes, they should keep those positions, but it's unnecessary to call them Bernie Sanders' positions, as if he invented them. The Democratic Party has always stood for curbing unfettered corporate power; it's a matter of emphasis, not something that's brand new to it.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)(As to the last platform...the ideas were added, then the platform went unmentioned in the fall campaign while Sanders people were repeatedly told that their efforts were a pointless failure...clearly we should have LED with the platform-it was just as important as leading with the person, because voters care as much about what we stand for and what we will do as they do about the individual we nominate and care more about what we are promising than they will ever care about how horrible the other other party is).
I'm talking about how we create the conditions in which Bernie doesn't run, and the conditions in which those of his supporters who weren't with us in November of '16 ARE with us in November of '18 and November of '20. We should WANT them to be with us, shouldn't we?
The way to do that is to show(as we chose not to show in the '16 general election campaign)that what his supporters had done had made a difference and had made our platform better, and to accept that they have a legitimate role to play in OUR partybecause we need to give them buy-in with us rather than just demanding that they support our nominee on whatever platform we adopt just to get Trump out.
This party stands for good things. Always has. It does no harm to acknowledge that sometimes we need to stand for better things. that we are usually better when we listen more to voices from below than voices from above, and that we are at our best when we respond to advocacy for change and for better policies. We can win by being a party that is open to debate and discussion, open to honest, respectful conversation.
And while Our Revolution has often expressed itself in a far more harsh and confrontational manner than it should have, if we are honest we should admit that we needed to hear the message, despite its tone.
We can do all of that without, in the slightest, minimizing the effects of Russia, Comey and vote suppression.
delisen
(6,042 posts)It ran on slogans instead of facts.
Many of us are facing personal disasters. I will actively oppose any more movements and candidacies of people lacking meaningful foreign policy experience or that present simplistic and bs slogans.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Last edited Mon Dec 25, 2017, 03:39 PM - Edit history (1)
And it was never "manipulation" to question the idea that the '16 result was ONLY caused by Russia, Comey, and voter suppression.
It's enough to say those were part of it.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)Russian lies were a distant but decisive second.
The best evidence is that Clinton's economic message resonated more than Trump's did.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)n/t.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)ideology from the inception of those ideas, and there's nothing new about them.
That's how he's gotten reelected for decades -- calling himself independent, claiming to be above his colleagues and offering something seeming shinier and more determined, suggesting he's just slightly radical, enough to seem exciting but never dangerous, and then voting reliably Democrat along with the people he despises. A winning formula with his constituents. Including the never producing the "more" he only rants about but never delivers.
What I think we're going to see by 2019 is who's replacing him. Judging from the dwindling of mentions here, leftist DUers who also despise mainstream Democratic politicians are about ready for a new leader.
Judging from the breaking up of his post-2016 following into separate, competing groups, it'll also be interesting to see if they can put aside the typical quarrels already developing to come together behind one person. That last has always been a severe weak point.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)to our country. Face it, one reason we Dems let him run as a Dem is that it would divide the votes and make it impossible for Dems to win, if he ran as an Independent.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Either respect* Bernie Sanders or he'll run as an Independent out of pure pique even when he KNOWS he'll divide the vote. To hell with the country.
*give him whatever he wants.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)She was a good candidate, but simply ONE good candidate of several. And no one is ever owed a presidential nomination.
If Bernie had stayed out of the primaries, Trump would have carrieed the Electoral College anyway.
And it's not about "respecting Bernie"-it's about accepting that we have to INCLUDE the issues his campaign raised as part(not all, but part) of our message.
Is that such a terrible thing?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Thank you. Sometimes I just have to shake my head in perplexity at some of the stuff said here.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)her with lies and conspiracy theories that noone in their right mind...Fox Repubs...would believe. They were euphoric on Hillary Hate.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Last edited Tue Dec 26, 2017, 05:44 AM - Edit history (1)
But that's the Right, not the prohibitive majority of Sanders supporters.
Support for Sanders was based almost entirely on the fact that those who backed him saw him as the only person in the race addressing
the set of issues he emphasized, not sexism, not dismissal of social justice Sanders supporters-whatever you might say about Bernie's personal emphases-were and are just as anti-racist, anti-sexist, anti-homophobia, anti-xenophobia and pro-choice as HRC supporters.
And I strongly suspect that the vast majority of HRC supporters never thought economic justice and social justice were in any actual way in conflict, or that economic justice as a concept was something they thought needed to be put aside.
There was never a difference on the actual issues between the voters for each candidate, there's no reason the voters for each can't now find common ground, there's no valid reason to try to exclude or silence either group, so whatever anyone might think of either candidate, can we at all agree that the artificial divisions created by the primary should finally be ended so we can all accept that we are all, on the Left, on the same freaking side?
What matters is unity and the future.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)16. We need fresh faces.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)The best way to make sure that he doesn't is to embrace the economic ideas from his campaign-just call it "full democracy" and embrace his supporters-IN ADDITION to continuing to embrace the supporters we have now.
The worst way is for people to refuse to let up on "Bernie caused Trump/Bernie had no business running" canards and to treat Sanders supporters like they're the enemy and should just shut up and do what they're told.
It's not possible to simply bar him from the next primaries and then STILL demand that his supporters back whoever we nominate.
We need new ideas, but we need the ideas from that campaign as part of those ideas.
We can't win if we anathemize anyone and anything even remotely connected to what his campaign was about. His proposals weren't unpopular and they weren't wrong. And they can't be blamed for what happened in November, because the campaign we ran after Philly virtually never mentioned those...the televised message was boiled down almost entirely to "it's time to elect a woman", "defend choice" and "Trump is a predatory scumbag"-all of which were and are valid points, but none of which were ever going to put us over the top in and of themselves.
2016 was a disaster, we all agree on that, but it serves no purpose to blame the Sanders movement for it any more than to blame HRC as an individual-which is why I never do that-or to keep arguing that he should have been barred from the primaries when the approach the party had been using on a lot of issues made something like the Sanders movement inevitable.
And if Bernie had actually wanted to destroy this party or had secretly wanted to help Trump, he would have accepted Stein's offer of the Green ballot line for November. He refused to do that.
It would have made no difference if the nomination had been settled in March and the attack ads against Trump had started three months earlier. If none of the attack ads the other GOP candidates ran made any difference against Trump, why would running any of the attack ads we ran after the convention-none of which ever swung a single "moderate suburban Republican woman" voter towards us, why would it have served any purpose at to run even MORE attack ads?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)IMnotU
(52 posts)If he ran the last time as an independent I think he might have won
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)but I REALLY don't want him to run as a Democrat, unless he becomes one and sticks to it. I'm not going to argue about whether or not he would have won, but he really shouldn't run again.
IMnotU
(52 posts)Candidates would not have to move to extremes to attract the activist true-believers.
lapucelle
(18,235 posts)and a different Republican primaried the Democratic candidate. Because I live in a closed primary state, we did not wind up with a choice between two Republicans in the GE.
Chasstev365
(5,191 posts)FSogol
(45,470 posts)Renew Deal
(81,852 posts)Jane Austin
(9,199 posts)delisen
(6,042 posts)Gothmog
(145,063 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)Hopefully there will be a dark horse that comes out in the next few years to take the lead.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)xmas74
(29,673 posts)I think he could be a force to reckon. He could be an incredible candidate.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Alice11111
(5,730 posts)rollin74
(1,973 posts)the voters have spoken in the majority of states on medical cannabis legalization and a growing number on recreational
we are not letting a politician like him erase the progress and drag us back into prohibition. no way
StevieM
(10,500 posts)Cha
(297,067 posts)to!
CrispyQ
(36,446 posts)The party needs to get these young dems out there, front & center & get them some name & face recognition before 2020.
brooklynite
(94,483 posts)This is an opinion piece by Aaron Blake. His opinions are his own.
IluvPitties
(3,181 posts)Biden, perhaps, but hopefully not.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Joe, but he won't take us over tbe finish line.
Booker needs to be on the ticket.
I will vote Dem, no matter, but I will not support with my time or money any ticket that Gillibrand is on. I will support Biden, but there are people that have a better chance of winning.
treestar
(82,383 posts)I think he could win that. They can't make as much of age as they'd both be old. Joe might have the personality to be able to make fun of Donald. He has experience debating Palin, another ridiculous candidate.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)been able to carry a Dem primary. Nonetheless, if Joe is the nominee, I will work hard for him.
BannonsLiver
(16,352 posts)peggysue2
(10,828 posts)The Republicans would just lo-o-ove Sanders to run. Anyone who thought Clinton's campaign beat up on Bernie would be in for a rude awakening.
This list is opinion-based, not better than anyone here might draw up.
Besides, let's concentrate on 2018. First things first.
BannonsLiver
(16,352 posts)IluvPitties
(3,181 posts)FreeStateDemocrat
(2,654 posts)than not being interested or deferring to his older brother. I will now find out from our more astute members...
0rganism
(23,937 posts)2020 seems like pretty far-out speculative stuff, given that we still have 2018 to get through
if Democrats don't take back some of those state houses and governorships in 2018, 2020 is going to be just another fucking miserable year in what will have become a fairly long string of them by then.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)a US Prez would want to separate immigrant kids and parents; fire all of the scientists; discredit all media but his own propaganda station; discredit the FBI; stir up war in the middle east; alienate Mexico and be condemned by the UN.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)we currently living under President Scott Walker. This crisis goes so much further than Donald Trump. He is the ultimate symptom, not the main cause.
Are you familiar with Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach? Be afraid. He strikes me as a future dictator of America.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)The Repubs support each other, waive the flag and stick together, as least the facade. They fight for each other until there is no hope, while.using lying and cheating, and whatever it takes (NBD, that's their culture, ), whether they are right.or wrong.
They sure don't threw their winners overbard with jealous mobs,. Other than 2 or 3 lemmings, who stand alone, in the rush to shut down our most effective, we cast them aside with the speed of light BEFORE the facts can be brought.out.
We have a.lot of work to do becase we have some deep psychlogical and jealousy problems. The no due process aspect,.means we did either did.not follow or have comepent legal staff either.
Personally, I think we need a purge in order to retain kiour credibility or we won't be the party who survives
mountain grammy
(26,613 posts)ClarendonDem
(720 posts)Of Booker/Gillibrand. Biden is the safe choice.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)She would never get elected and she would sink any Dem she gets near.
We need to win this time, and we can't take reckless chances. We would never win with her. She is way, way more divisive than Hillary or Bernie ever were.
She needs to keep a low profile. I have worked and raised money for Dems, almost every election. If she is on the ticket, Dems get my vote, nada mas, nary a dime.
She has done enough damage to our party to last a lifetime.
but not the one who throws out Dems from the Senate and goes after Bill C.
ClarendonDem
(720 posts)She'd be a fine candidate, and almost certainly would have the support of the vast majority of Dems.
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)ClarendonDem
(720 posts)Has much less baggage--whether justified or not--than HRC. It felt like there was a fairly large portion of voters who simply would not vote for HRC. Maybe Gillibrand will be the same?
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)I love Hillary, but I don't want her to run again...too much IRRATIONAL, STUPID, Hillary Hate.
G has at least as much, IMO, but not the experience or judgment. I'm sure the Repubs would love Gillibrand or Hillary because they can drive a wedge among voters.
ClarendonDem
(720 posts)Though I'll support whoever the Dems nominate.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Trump will have his record working against him, he won't be the new thing where people will forgive his behavior. His 25% base will be with him, but the 75% will be looking for anyone else, we just need to run a hardworking candidate that is alert and well spoken, and has government experience - after Trump more people are seeing that we need people that have run government offices before.
lpbk2713
(42,751 posts)I'd vote for him in the Primary.
bearsfootball516
(6,376 posts)Young, energetic, basically no political baggage, would get a massive minority vote.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Can't think of anyone I'd rather see in the WH.
Botany
(70,483 posts)Adam Shiff
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)We have to take on lying, cheating Repubs, and we need someone with a lot of charisma. Sounds so shallow.
However, we have seen that having the most qualified candidate ever is not enough.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... for the top of the ticket. He's a winner!!
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)Recommended.
northoftheborder
(7,572 posts)Response to guillaumeb (Reply #32)
northoftheborder This message was self-deleted by its author.
ClarendonDem
(720 posts)But I could get on board. I'd worry about how much that ticket would connect outside the northeast though.
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)He should have been out there everyday following the primaries, as Hillary did for Barack. When the his chances fizzled he went back to being an independent. He bashes the dems ALL the time. He is much too old, he's proven that he wants things his way, and only his way...not a team player. Why would the dems support him??!!
Renew Deal
(81,852 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... a big fat NO for slots 2-4 when it comes to our party's nomination. I'd never support any of them during the Democratic primaries.
Harris, Booker, Winfrey and Johnson... all POC... definitely excite me! Depending on how their campaigns are run will affect my decision on whether I view them as being viable candidates and actual contenders.
It's fun to play this game, but there's no way to know for sure... only time will tell.
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Win,and if it lookslike she could, whatever. At least, we know she will get competent people around her with experience.
I would even go for Oprah, Booker, but we need to test poll voters. We have to win! The Most important thing is to win!!
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)Not a serious list.
ClarendonDem
(720 posts)But the rest seem pretty serious to me.
Renew Deal
(81,852 posts)Im not convinced that The Rock would run as a Democrat. Politically Im sure hes left of center, but I think he would go independent.
MustLoveBeagles
(11,587 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)In a weird way, "The Rock" is comparable to "Ike"- if "Ike" had been a star of action movies rather than a World War II general.
heaven05
(18,124 posts)???? and let us keep vetting....it's early yet......
gibraltar72
(7,501 posts)Joe Lieberman?
Alice11111
(5,730 posts)MustLoveBeagles
(11,587 posts)Renew Deal
(81,852 posts)Shes doesnt act like someone who wants to do that. Im also not convinced that people will want a first term president approaching or past life expectancy.
Chris Murphy is interesting.
Mike Nelson
(9,951 posts)...needs a new assignment!
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)Note the language at 2:00: "we" want etc. Now, that could easily be we democrats, but it sounds like a platform to me.
around 8:30: "That's what Bernie and I are fighting for. We're in this fight all the way. We need you in it too"
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)There will be a dark horse candidate that comes up and takes it
StevieM
(10,500 posts)CrispyQ
(36,446 posts)I think a woman running for president is going to have to have a lower timbre to her voice. HRC had a great political voice & I think Kamala Harris does, too.
Surprised to see The Rock & Oprah on that list. Can we stop electing people with zero government experience into the highest office of the land?
CrispyQ
(36,446 posts)In case you're thinking it's sexist, there are a slew of men with unpleasant voices too, like Richard Blumenthal.
MadCrow
(155 posts)Chris Murphy and Adam Schiff, or vice versa.
question everything
(47,462 posts)Casprings
(347 posts)Is my pick. New face nationally.
IMnotU
(52 posts)ClarendonDem
(720 posts)Alice11111
(5,730 posts)Al over WITHOUT DUE.PEOCESS!!! Not the ring leader,.but she ruhed to.prevent due process.
Ill work for Dems, raising money for the Senate, but never her. Perhaps, if she atoned, and really tried to change things, but I think it is all to complicated now.
If she is the only choice of a Dem in an election, I will hold.my.nose and vote.