I have been reviewing Watergate. How do you think this will play out?

[Orange Free State]

https://m.

I lived through that as a teenager, and reviewed it to determine the similarities between Watergate and Russiagate.
Three differences that come to mind are 1) Nixon had been in office a lot longer than Trump when the fertilizer struck the ventilator, and the glow of new possibilities of his presidency had long gone away. He ran on ending the Vietnam War, and hadn’t done that, so the American public may have been more primed to turn on him, and 2) there was a Democratic Congress. At this time, Trump’s party rules congress, and they are more likely to let the matter die if Trump kills the investigation. 3) Nixon was much smarter than Trump, but perhaps more vindictive. Trump is way more delusional, thinks things are true and real by virtue of the fact that he said them. Trump lives in a bubble. If he can no longer govern, he may just pretend everything is fine and tweet and go golfing. I doubt that there is a Barry Goldwater figure who can go as an emissary to tell Trump he is done.
Does anyone have a feel for how this will end? Resignation? Impeachment? If 2018 is kind to the Democrats, my vote goes for impeachment.

What do you think?

[bearsfootball516]

1. What I believe

Mueller lays out a pretty airtight, damning case. Dems take back the House in 2018, Republicans retain the Senate. Trump is impeached inc the House but not the Senate. Battered, but not forced out of office, he finishes his term and loses reelection in 2020.

[Cosmocat]

9. Even that would be a REALLY tight turn

IF we can win the House, the clock is ticking at two years until the 2020 election ...

VERY hard to see them drawing up the articles of impeachment in an election year (in this current environment), unless there is EXTRAORDINARILY damning evidence.

SO, the would have to take over congress and get it done in 2019, which just seems hard to see.

IMO, BEST CASE scenario is that we get the House in 2018, we are able to control the damage, Mueller gets the ducks in order and there is a broad awareness of all the illegal activity he has engaged in, he loses in 2020, then gets prosecuted.

[dalton99a]

2. One thing for sure: Republicans won't do a damn thing

although the usual suspects will utter the usual reasonable-sounding half-truths and bullshit for PR purposes

Trump continues to lash out and destroy until Mother Nature takes over

[marylandblue]

3. Mueller indicts Trump

The question of indictment is an omission in our Constitution and it leaves us vulnerable to future Trumps, so Mueller will indict him and let the courts decides if he can be indicted so that there is clarifying precedent. It goes to the Supreme Court, which decides he can be indicted. Trump becomes a liability to the Republicans as his support drops to Nixon levels. Congress then impeaches him and the Senate removes him from office.

This could play out before the 2018 elections, but most likely after, with the Democrats in control of both houses of Congress.

[maxsolomon]

4. Gerrymandering keeps the house in 2018, Mueller's case is summarily dismissed by the GOP

Trump is re-elected in 2020, suspends the Constitution in 2024 (alternately: has Pence elected the way Putin does every 8 years), rules autocratically until his death, and is buried in a literal gold pyramid in the middle of the Reflecting Pool between the Lincoln Memorial and the WW2 Memorial. His body will be kept on display in a glass coffin like Lenin.

No level of cynicism is too great at this point. Our Democracy is truly in peril.

[Saboburns]

6. I'm not seeing any cynicism in your post

Republicans have no bottom, there is no fail-safe, and anything is indeed possible. I expect things will get much, much worse before they begin to get better.

Our Republic can survive having a President like Donald Trump. The framers did a masterful job ensuring no man can destroy our Democracy.

Yes, our Republic can survive a Donald Trump.

However, our Republic can NOT survive such a Presidency that is backed by an equally corrupt, and power-mad party that controls Congress, enables and emboldens and aids the destruction of the pillars of Democracy.

I think our one and only chance to save Democracy is to win back both houses of Congress in November.

Perilous times indeed.

[Cosmocat]

10. THIS, THIS, THIS

45 his horrible beyond belief, but he isn't THE issue.

The issue is the GOP ...

A democracy just is not set up to withstand a party that loses any sense of decency and honor ...

[Basic LA]

5. More Iran/Contra than Watergate, I fear.

Mueller gives his findings to Mitchell or Ryan, & Repugs hold a show trial/hearing with predictable results. Then, as with Reagan, a few years later, they'll name an aircraft carrier after Trump.

[gratuitous]

7. It's a different time, I think

For one, we now live in a world where Nixon resigned from office. Some elements of the Republican party have not and probably will never get over that. Even the empty process of impeaching Clinton on a heap of bogus charges (none of which garnered even a majority vote, much less the two-thirds required for removal) satisfied them. Trump wasn't kidding around about shooting someone on Fifth Avenue; his party won't bat an eye.

It will get the Republicans' attention if they get clobbered in the mid-terms, and they've already taken some lumps in Virginia, Alabama and Pennsylvania. We keep working, keep turning out voters, and keep kicking their butts, Republicans may re-evaluate their strategy. If we install new majorities in Congress and in state legislatures, governors' offices, and the like, we may not need the Republicans to do anything at all.

[dawg day]

8. Nixon was also more popular

he won in 1972 with a majority something like 63%. So he fell a lot farther, and very fast considering. That's something to keep in mind-- even with Nixon, it was more than 2 years from "crime" (the break-in) to his resignation. (Also, let's not forget that his vice president was indicted and resigned in 1973-- we could only be so lucky.

Nixon was a crook and monster, but he had a real care about doing some good things (along with doing bad things). He had a reason to be president (going to China, starting the EPA) besides just being acknowledged as the biggest bestest ever. So when he started losing power and influence, he didn't see much reason to hang on to be impeached.
But, as you say, Trump could just quit doing even the minimal work he does, keep tweeting, claim credit for anything good and blame Obama for anything bad, go golfing a lot. He has no need to be any good at this, and no agenda to get done. If Barry Goldwater's ghost showed up and said, "You should retire," he'd probably say, "Why?" It's not like he cares about anything getting done.

I do think he could feel aggrieved enough to take his ball and go home, and he might be willing to make a deal (as Agnew did, and Nixon probably too) to avoid prison. But otherwise, I think he's going to cling to the position. In that case, I can see Pence (whose raw ambition is surpassed only by his ruthlessness) deciding to get rid of Trump-- 25th Amendment or something. And of course, Mueller could find the goods on him and the Congress could impeach.

But Nixon had some pride-- not just arrogance, but pride. I can't believe I'm saying this, but there's someone worse than Nixon, and more important, he's shameless.