Royce Retirement Moves CA-39 from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic

[brooklynite]

Cook Political Report:

Democrats got a boost they desperately wanted when GOP House Foreign Relations Chair Rep. Ed Royce announced his retirement from California's 39th CD. Royce has held the northern Orange County seat easily since 1992, in part because he's built a deep relationship with immigrant communities in a district that is 29 percent Asian and just 31 percent white. But without Royce, Republicans will struggle to hold the seat.

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With President Trump's approval rating languishing south of 40 percent, a Republican lacking Royce's reputation and $3.5 million would be a considerable underdog in November, particularly without a competitive GOP candidate for governor or senator to drive out turnout.

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Republicans do have a deep bench of potential candidates in this district including former Royce staffer Young Kim (who lost her Assembly seat last year and is currently running for Orange County Supervisor), Orange County Supervisor Michelle Park Steel, former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff and former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh, who had been raising money to run in the neighboring 48th CD.

However, it would take a pretty elaborate top-two primary scenario, or a severely flawed Democratic nominee, for the GOP to hold this seat in this climate. The 39th CD moves from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic.