Royce Retirement Moves CA-39 from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic

[RandySF]

Democrats got a boost they desperately wanted when GOP House Foreign Relations Chair Rep. Ed Royce announced his retirement from California's 39th CD. Royce has held the northern Orange County seat easily since 1992, in part because he's built a deep relationship with immigrant communities in a district that is 29 percent Asian and just 31 percent white. But without Royce, Republicans will struggle to hold the seat.

The 39th District encompasses upscale Fullerton and Yorba Linda in Orange County, Diamond Bar in Los Angeles County and Chino Hills in San Bernardino County. In 2012 it voted for GOP nominee Mitt Romney 51 percent to 47 percent. But in 2016, as Donald Trump struggled with the non-white and college-educated voters who dominate the 39th, Hillary Clinton carried it 51 percent to 43 percent.

With President Trump's approval rating languishing south of 40 percent, a Republican lacking Royce's reputation and $3.5 million would be a considerable underdog in November, particularly without a competitive GOP candidate for governor or senator to drive out turnout.

However, if Republicans do have a chance to hold this seat, it probably rests with the state's top-two primary system. Before today, Royce had five announced Democratic opponents with over $100,000 in the bank. If they split the vote enough ways and only two name-brand Republican run, the Republicans could theoretically win both general election slots in the June top-two primary and shut Democrats out of the seat.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/california-house/royce-retirement-moves-ca-39-lean-republican-lean-democratic

[arthritisR_US]

1. Democrats need to get smart and ruthless.

[Journeyman]

2. I read the other day Republicans are going to put a big push against a proposed gas tax . . .

the tax would fund infrastructure repairs to roads and bridges, but the Republicans are banking on generating enough anger over it to bring out their voters and give them a chance in some of the more competitive elections. Much like they used the issue of gay marriage back in 2004 to bring out voters.

I don't believe it's going to work. The proposal is supported by a sizable number in the business community, most Californians perceive the need to repair our infrastructure before it collapses (Oroville Dam contributed substantially to that attitude), and then there's the reality that Donald Trump and the Republican Party are hated with hot passion here in the Golden State.


But what the hell do I know? I considered it impossible for Trump to win in 2016, let alone the Republicans retain the control they have on the government. Despite this, however, I'm helping in a number of ways to rid Washington of as many Republicans as possible.

[RandySF]

3. I think Jeff Sessions just drove the final nail in the coffin for the CA Republican Party

The Trump Administration and Washington Republicans are launching one assault after another with the attempted ACA repeal, the tax bill, ignoring fire victims offshore oil drilling and now marijuana. It's a toxic environment for them now.

[Journeyman]

4. Oh, definitely. I suspect opposition to this tax initiative will bring out a few more voters . . .

but not enough to tip the scales against the weight of the opposition which is building daily.