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Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:27 PM

bench scientist (1,107 posts)

Are Democrats Senate Chances In 2018 Overrated?

Nate Silver from 538 crunches the numbers:

“After Democrat Doug Jones won a stunning victory in Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate last month, lots of smart people whose work I read and follow, such as The New York Times’s Nate Cohn, declared that the battle for Senate control in 2018 was a “toss-up.” Prediction markets largely concur; after Jones’s win, the betting odds of Democrats taking over the Senate shot up to about 45 percent.

I think this might be premature. Winning in Alabama certainly makes the Democrats’ path easier: They could now gain control of the Senate by retaining all of their own seats, plus picking up the Republican held-seats in purplish Nevada and Arizona. But they’re probably still the underdogs.
Democrats face a really tough Senate map.”
More at link:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated/

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16 replies	Author	Time	Post
Are Democrats Senate Chances In 2018 Overrated? (Original post)	bench scientist	Jan 2018	OP
Tennessee might be a surprise	Funtatlaguy	Jan 2018	#1
Certainly seems like the best of those in the likely R category.	bench scientist	Jan 2018	#4
And we have another seat to defend in Minnesota	exboyfil	Jan 2018	#2
2 Seats in Arizona?	Proud Liberal Dem	Jan 2018	#7
McCain has an aggressive form of brain cancer.	bench scientist	Jan 2018	#9
Definitely possible I agree	Proud Liberal Dem	Jan 2018	#13
I know that Nate deals in cold, hard numbers	Proud Liberal Dem	Jan 2018	#3
We do have a hard fight.Being realistic about that helps us to prepare	bench scientist	Jan 2018	#6
Correction: He deals with cold hard numbers....most of the time.	BannonsLiver	Jan 2018	#14
I 100% agree with Silver	NewJeffCT	Jan 2018	#5
Exactly.	bench scientist	Jan 2018	#8
not easy to predict accurately so far ahead, but i agree we're underdogs.	unblock	Jan 2018	#10
Don't give up on Texas	Dem_4_Life	Jan 2018	#11
Not by me.	Iggo	Jan 2018	#12
I hold out no hope of winning the Senate	GulfCoast66	Jan 2018	#15
This message was self-deleted by its author	Anny61	Jan 2018	#16

Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:32 PM

Funtatlaguy (10,432 posts)

1. Tennessee might be a surprise

Former popular Democratic Governor Bredesen against Repub whack job Marsha Blackburn.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:38 PM

bench scientist (1,107 posts)

4. Certainly seems like the best of those in the likely R category.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:35 PM

exboyfil (17,600 posts)

2. And we have another seat to defend in Minnesota

Maybe we can pick up two seats in Arizona. I have to think we are going to lose at least two seats with current incumbents.

We have to defend Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida.

26 Democrat or Independent seats and 8 Republican seats (not including McCain)

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Response to exboyfil (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:43 PM

Proud Liberal Dem (23,578 posts)

7. 2 Seats in Arizona?

Is McCain resigning/retiring?

Who are the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents? Under normal circumstances, I'd agree that we would be more vulnerable but Trump is horribly toxic and so many Republicans in Congress are resigning that I would imagine that we would be in better shape in general. So far, I haven't heard any polling that shows any specific dangers for any of our incumbents.

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:47 PM

bench scientist (1,107 posts)

9. McCain has an aggressive form of brain cancer.

I wish him well but the prognosis for this type is both rapid and fatal. ( Vice President Biden’s son died from the same type of cancer ).
It’s possible there will two senate races in AZ.

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Response to bench scientist (Reply #9)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 01:17 PM

Proud Liberal Dem (23,578 posts)

13. Definitely possible I agree

I was just curious if I missed something about McCain.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:37 PM

Proud Liberal Dem (23,578 posts)

3. I know that Nate deals in cold, hard numbers

and I agree that we face long odds in the Senate but, damn, why can't we try to feel optimistic about something at least occasionally? The last year+ has been one long dark tunnel of doom and gloom.

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:43 PM

bench scientist (1,107 posts)

6. We do have a hard fight.Being realistic about that helps us to prepare

Realism is good. We need to know what is ahead of us. Where do we marshall our resources, where recruit candidates, who are our best options?
Victories don’t just happen it takes a ton of work.

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 01:19 PM

BannonsLiver (14,898 posts)

14. Correction: He deals with cold hard numbers....most of the time.

But unfortunately for Nate, he's been inserting his own opinions into his forecasts and predictions lately which is where he gets into a bit of trouble.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:40 PM

NewJeffCT (56,792 posts)

5. I 100% agree with Silver

I've been trying to sell the idea that the Democrats just holding even in the Senate would be a huge victory with the god-awful map.

However, if the Democrats pick up 50 seats in the House, but don't win the Senate, the media and Trump will trumpet it as a repudiation of the Resistance that Democrats didn't take back both houses

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:43 PM

bench scientist (1,107 posts)

8. Exactly.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:47 PM

unblock (51,289 posts)

10. not easy to predict accurately so far ahead, but i agree we're underdogs.

i think people take for granted that we'll be able to defend all our seats and focus on winning the seats we need to flip to our side.

but sheer randomness makes it hard to defend that many seats. some scandal or news event somewhere could very well blow things up out of left field.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:49 PM

Dem_4_Life (1,765 posts)

11. Don't give up on Texas

Hillary lost by 8 points and Trump and Cruz are very unpopular. There are a lot of Republicans and people who have never voted for a DEM ever who are already saying they will vote for Beto O'Rourke and that Cruz needs to go. We need to focus on GOTV and it will be a hard fight but it is not impossible.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 12:53 PM

Iggo (46,450 posts)

12. Not by me.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Wed Jan 10, 2018, 01:40 PM

GulfCoast66 (11,949 posts)

15. I hold out no hope of winning the Senate

But we should fight seat like we can win. That pays off in future years. What kills us is so many districts where the voters never hear our message because we do not compete. Granted that is more true in the house than senate.

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Response to bench scientist (Original post)

Anny61 This message was self-deleted by its author.

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