Trump is historically unpopular. But the intensity gap should really terrify Republicans.

[DonViejo]

By Paul Waldman January 19 at 1:23 PM

With the anniversary of Donald Trump’s inauguration coming tomorrow, there’s a raft of new polls out assessing what the American people think of the president, and the big story is that, just as he has cast aside norms of behavior, candor and propriety from his first day in office, Trump is breaking new ground.

There’s never been a president who was as deeply unpopular for as long as he has been at this stage of his presidency. And when you look deeper into the polls, you see signs of real trouble for Republicans, driven by Trump’s ability to suck up everyone’s attention and focus. The president is always the main protagonist of our political story, but we may never have seen a period as personalized in one figure as this one is. And that is the single biggest problem Republicans face this November.

-snip- (several paragraphs about Trump's low approval ratings)

There’s something else vital to understand: Not only does Trump have high disapproval, but the intensity of his disapproval is unusually high, as well. For all the time news organizations spend writing “In Trump Country, Trump Supporters Support Trump” stories, intense dislike of Trump may be the most powerful force in the U.S. electorate right now. Consider these figures (I’ve added in some other recent polls):

Pew: 27 percent strongly approve of Trump’s performance, 47 percent strongly disapprove
NBC: 26 percent strongly approve, 51 percent strongly disapprove
Quinnipiac: 29 percent strongly approve, 49 percent strongly disapprove
Marist: 23 percent strongly approve, 39 percent strongly disapprove
LA Times: 15 percent strongly approve, 42 percent strongly disapprove

Other polls show that the intensity of support for Trump has slightly decreased over the course of the year, while the opposition’s intensity has slightly increased. While there’s variation among polls, the general picture is that for every American who really loves Donald Trump, there are about two Americans who really hate him.

That’s what produces the election results we’ve seen all over the country in recent months, where Democratic candidates dramatically over-performed compared with how they’ve done in recent elections. Trump is such a powerful presence that he nationalizes every election to at least some degree, which is bad news for his party.

Now let’s think about how this picture of energized, angry Democratic voters and Republican voters who still support Trump but aren’t so enthusiastic about it could play out in November. Despite the fact that the president is on everyone’s mind, the calculation is different for voters of the two parties. A Democrat can deliver Trump a crushing blow with their vote, because if their party takes back one or both houses of Congress, the effect will be seismic. Not only would the GOP legislative agenda be immediately dead, but with their newfound subpoena power, Democrats could start investigating this administration from tip to tail.

full article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/01/19/trump-is-historically-unpopular-but-the-intensity-gap-should-really-terrify-republicans

[trueblue2007]

1. people are starting to HATE TRUMP !!!

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

2. If a Trump voter switches from FOR to AGAINST it will be sudden and powerful

These guys are like rubber bands that are being stretched tighter and tighter by the revelation of another Trump promise broken. At some point they'll say, "Enough!!!" All that tension is going to be released. Then all that positive energy is going to become negative energy. It won't turn them into Democrats (even Jesus Christ doesn't have that kind of power), but it could open them to other alternatives, or at least discourage them so much they will sit out the next election, which will hurt down-ballot Repug candidates.

Just MHO.