The Battle Before the War

[babylonsister]

The Battle Before the War
Democrats are recruiting credible, well-funded challengers up and down the ballot. Republicans aren’t.

By Jamelle Bouie
Jan 23, 20187:11 PM


To see the importance of recruiting credible, well-funded candidates, one need only look back to November and the Virginia legislative races, where Democrats nearly won a majority in the House of Delegates after almost 20 years in the minority. Those gains were only possible because Democrats fielded an impressive array of candidates for a slew of low-profile, down-ballot races, turning formerly “red” districts into competitive ones.

For 2018, Democrats have not had trouble fielding challengers for races up and down the ballot, from congressional elections to contests for control of statehouses and governor’s mansions. Republicans, on the other hand, are struggling to find viable candidates for even some of the party’s most promising races, including states won by Donald Trump in the presidential election. And the reason is clear: Thanks to President Trump, it’s a bad time to be an ambitious Republican politician.

Even at this early stage in the election cycle, all signs point to some form of a Democratic wave in November, fueled by broad and intense opposition to Trump and his allies.

For Republicans mulling a run this year, the landscape is ominous. There’s the congressional generic ballot, a simple but reliable survey question that asks voters which party they would prefer have control of Congress. Once you adjust for which party controls the White House, notes Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight, the generic ballot is “strongly correlated” with the eventual results as early as 18 months before the election. In 2006, when Democrats took the House and Senate, they held a roughly 10 percentage point average lead in the generic ballot. As of this week, according to Real Clear Politics, they have an average lead of roughly 8 percentage points, with individual polls that range from modest leads of 5 points to substantial ones of 12 or 14 points.

There’s also anecdotal evidence from a collection of special and off-year elections. Last year, Democrats won 14 special elections in Republican-held state legislative districts, in addition to a historic upset in the Alabama Senate race. While Democrats weren’t able to prevail in some deep-red places like Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, they have consistently overperformed in election after election since Trump’s victory. On average, according to left-leaning analysts at the website Daily Kos, Democrats are outperforming past results by around 10 points.

more...

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/republicans-are-losing-the-recruiting-battle.html

[underpants]

1. Abigail Spanberger running for D nomination to go against Dave Brat

https://abigailspanberger.com/

Local woman who went to UVA and was a CIA OFFICER

Yes the Va 7th was heavily gerrymandered to absorb really red areas by Cantor to protect other Republicans but that ended up being part of the reason Brat beat him. The open primary and no Dems running was the big reason.

[Nay]

2. I also have been belaboring this point for years. If national Dems had bothered, they

could have beaten Brat (or Cantor, for that matter) JUST BY SHOWING UP WITH SOME MONEY. Two decent candidates ran against these two with only their own money and did quite well considering.

I'm so happy that this woman is running. I need to get out there and walk the neighborhood for her. I'm in Brat's district.


Edit: I just went to her site and donated some money and got on her newsletter list. I hope she blows Bratty right out of the water.

[underpants]

4. Well then we may run into each other

I'm planning on splitting time between her campaign (if she wins the primary) and Sen. Kaine' campaign.

[Nay]

5. We might!!

[Stuart G]

3. Randy Bryce is running against Paul Ryan.. District 1 in Wisconsin

He is an iron worker. I have already received 2 or 3 mailings from him, and it is only late January. The election is 9 months away. His literature points out that Ryan doesn't understand working people and that Bryce has often had to work 12 hour days to support his family.

Now this is a heavy Republican district. But I will send Bryce some money because he is making a major effort. That is something outstanding against this ass**le. Bryce is likely to lose, but it will be a lot less than in the past. There is a chance, if there is a very strong wave, that Bryce could win.

Randy Bryce for Congress
https://www.randybryceforcongress.com/