Ok. So. A little Econ primer (and the outlook is not rosy)

[Roland99]

1) Markets have continued to ratchet up
2) rent and housing continue to rise. Rents exorbitantly so
3) Gas prices are at multi-year highs
4) LG announced it’s raising prices on home appliances due to new tariffs
5) Solar industry about to tank and/or raise prices due to new tariffs
6) Bond yields have risen to hold steady at highest levels in about 4 years

Inflation is surely something of which to be cognizant. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Fed raise rates a couple of times in the near future. That has a trickle down effect across the board:

Housing prices will have to fall as interest rates tick up. That will hurt those with little to no equity.

Credit card interest rates will rise and families will pay more in interest every month

Bonds issued by the govt will incur higher interest payments making it harder if not impossible to cut the fiscal deficit or lower the national debt.

The economy will contract and the markets will drop and 401(k)s will take hits and affect the ability of people with them to retire if they are nearing that point.


It just ain’t looking good.

[Wellstone ruled]

1. Bonds have been in a sell off mode for several

months. One Wall Streeter called it a blood bath for Bonds. That is why Industrials are selling off. We have not seen anything yet,after Trump F's up Davos,hang on baby.

[unblock]

2. there are few signs of a recession any time soon, despite donnie's best efforts.

europe is picking up. america's growth isn't all that exciting but it's ok.
the stock market shines better than the economy because corporate profits are outpacing the economy as a whole, but that doesn't mean the economy is tanking.

yet.

there's also considerable slack in the forces that would ordinarily cause systemic inflation. in particular, the labor market is quite weak (thanks to decades of the war against unions), so wages will be slow to rise even though we're essentially at full employment.

it's very hard to have systemic inflation without wages going up.

gas prices are up, but not prohibitively so. around $60/barrel; they've been over $100 in the past.

the tariff effects are for the moment a tiny portion of the economy as a whole. that's no excuse, but the macro effect is small.
unless it kicks off a protectionist war.


if there is any inflation, the fed has tons of room to raise rates quickly if need be. in any event, the markets are predicting 3 quarter-point hikes in 2018. that would still leave rates rather low, historically.


a recession isn't likely to come until 2019 or 2020.

credit obama with building a robust economy and the longest period of growth without a recession in our nation's history!