Most negative would obviously be if I said Romney would soon develop an insurmountable lead due to his financial support.
In fact, I don't even think most of what I've said is negative. If you read back to my first post to this subthread, I said that I agree that Obama should win because he was leading in almost all swing states. His projected electoral numbers look good.
I also cited the possibility that there might be a diminishing returns to megabucks in campaigns, that is, you get no further advantage for spending $500 million in campaign spending as you would with $300 million. Maybe there is a saturation effect that will render Romney's advantage moot. I never heard anyone mention this possibility, BTW. I came up with it myself.
Let's also hope for inflation of advertising prices, which will take more money from the wealthy who want Romney to win, and distribute it to the middle and lower classes. Therefore, frustrating the wealthy Republicans. I also didn't hear anybody mention that possibility. I didn't read it from a source either. I came up with that myself as a hopeful possibility.
You think I'm too negative, still? Maybe it's because, psychologically, I don't depend on optimism to get up in the morning. I don't have to maintain it to stay motivated. To make an effort, it's not necessary for me to tell myself that the good outcome is the only possibility.
My apology that it brings you down, but negative thoughts are only thoughts. They don't effect the world. Actions do. Your actions are dependent on your judgment, which is informed by facts. It may be necessary to maintain hope, but it's best not to get into the habit of distorting facts to do it.
I think putting your hopes in the wrong things is harmful, because it deceives you. You can make terrible decisions when you're misinformed, including when you're doing it to stay motivated. It's important to know what's invalid, like an average of several polls, and what's real, like a clear lead above the margin of error.
BTW, I also said that Obama having a clear lead in the newest NBC poll is good news. It can get better if other polls reflect it as well. It could be a breakthrough.
If you can't see the optimism that I've cited and only see that I'm so negative, it's perhaps because you need more hope than I'm offering to stave off despair. I can understand that. I'll encourage you by saying that I see Obama as the likely winner, but not every valid indicator says this.
Lastly, things I read recently suggested that Romney had pulled even with Obama in Virginia. In fact, if you look at my link above citing the Kos/Sieu poll, Romney is pulling even with Obama in national polls. That's what I was referring to. So, my perception is that, no, Romney has been trailing Obama in the polls by a clear margin. His pulling even is new, at least to me.
Now maybe we just have our eyes on different polls, or you were watching polls months ago, but the polls months ago didn't mean anything to me. They're not predictive. It's only as the election approaches that it tells you if Obama's campaign has been effective and vise versa.
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