Will Trump be the final Republican nominee for president?

[DonViejo]

By Jennifer Rubin January 29 at 11:30 AM

The Concord (N.H.) Monitor reported last week: “John Kasich is coming back to the first-in-the-nation primary state. The two-term Ohio governor and 2016 Republican presidential candidate will headline a fireside chat at New England College in Henniker on April 3, as part of the school’s President’s Speaker Series.” As if you had any doubt, the Monitor dryly noted that Kasich’s trip “will once again fuel rumors that he’s considering another White House bid in 2020.” Even if Kasich were certain to run, however, there’d be considerable question as to whether he’d run as a Republican. His future in the Republican Party and the future of the party itself are now very much in doubt.

If President Trump actually completes his term and runs again in 2020, it will be because the GOP rallied around him, kicked to the curb any sliver of doubt about supporting a racist and misogynist, and gave up the pretense it is the vanguard of constitutional conservatism and Abraham Lincoln. In the fully and permanently Trumpized GOP, it would be impossible for Kasich, a fiscal conservative, an advocate of immigration reform and a traditional internationalist in foreign policy, to find a majority or even plurality to support him. Kasich has taken on Trump again and again, whether on health care, on foreign policy or on immigration, but the vast majority of Republicans have stuck with Trump and his agenda.

If Trump runs again in 2020, Kasich would seem far better suited for an independent run. Yes, we know, independents historically have fared poorly. Yes, we know, the difficulties involved in gaining ballot access are significant. However, the completed metamorphosis of the GOP into an ethno-nationalist party would leave a political vacuum. The desire for a new political grouping — especially if the Democratic Party goes far left — could be palpable.

Former New Hampshire Republican senator Gordon Humphrey tells me, “2020 offers an opportunity for someone in the Reagan/Kemp mold to run as an independent, promising to unite the country on the basis of civility and decency in public discourse and respect for the Constitution and to pursue traditional conservative policies of limited government, strong defense, and assertive promotion of freedom and free trade in foreign policy.” In Humphrey’s view, “the Republican 2020 nomination will not be worth fighting for. Trump and his unprincipled Republican enablers have so soiled the brand that it will not recover for a very long time.” In the meantime, Humphrey argues, “there is now a broad avenue between the parties that would collect the votes of traditional conservatives from both parties and from the ranks of independents, constituting a plurality, if not a majority, in the general election.”

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/01/29/will-trump-be-the-final-republican-nominee-for-president/?utm_term=.c72379b7f50b

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. The last time I heard that was in 2016.

How did that turn out?

[Hermit-The-Prog]

2. GOP will end when we end it

I've heard about the end of the Republican party too many times to believe it. There is still support for anti-health care, anti-education, anti-unions, anti-self out there.

[Johonny]

3. I'm pretty sure the answer it no

[zipplewrath]

4. "...especially if the Democratic Party goes far left..."

I'm never sure what that means. There is so much room in that direction I can't imagine what they mean. The vast majority of fairly mainstream democratic proposals poll solidly in the US. The most "leftist" things I can imagine are $15 minimum wage, medicare for all, and college tuition, all of which poll quite well. There's small talk of guaranteed income I suppose but that's about the most "leftist" thing I can think of.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

5. Only if we actually stop having elections

...which is not outside the realm of possibility

I've heard at least twice in my lifetime (just over 50 years) that the GOP would wither and die, and at least once heard the same thing about the Democratic party.

At this time in 2014, Rick Scott had horrid, abysmal approval ratings, and his re-election prospects looked slim at best. Never underestimate our party's ability to screw up a slam-dunk.