Well well well don't look now but after a 170 DOW drop yesterday

[titaniumsalute]

The Dow futures at 8:01 AM are down 242 points. I don't think you'll see any tweets today about the stock market from the Orange Dictator.

[unblock]

1. down two days in a row, then the market will rebound right after donnie's speech.

they couldn't have planned it better.

hmmmm....

[Bettie]

2. None of it represents anything real anymore

the large volume traders (hedge funds and other groups) can make the market do whatever they want it to.

Push a button, it goes down: they win

Push a button it goes up: they win again

The markets are just a game for the very, very rich.

[brooklynite]

3. And where do you have your investments?

[panader0]

5. Myself, and most of the people I know, don't have "investments".

I'm going to invest 6 or 7 hundred bucks in a new transmission, when I
save it up. Then I'll invest in my land taxes. Stuff like that.

[mountain grammy]

17. Exactly!

We'll be "investing" nearly $2000 in property taxes and another couple of thousand (if we're lucky) in our leaky roof.

But, gee whiz, if that market drops we just might buy us some of them there stocks making people rich...

[annabanana]

8. My house is my only equity..

And it is sorely in need of a paint job. (The roof is doing ok, thanks)..

[Maven]

12. "WHERE do you SUMMER?"

[brooklynite]

22. Wouldn't know; my wife and I work year round

...and invest as much as we can for the long term. Like Government and Union pension plans do.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Coming up on the end of the month

so they (funds) are probably making moves to position for February 1st (and a new Fed Chair).

[Lurks Often]

6. And yet my 401K grew $8700 since 1/1/2018

If people's 401K's continue to grow that fast and they start seeing more money in their paychecks* then November 2018 isn't going to go as most here hope.



*Based on several of the online models, I should see an extra $90-$120 a month in my paycheck in February or March when the IRS releases the actual tax tables, not huge, but not crumbs either.

[annabanana]

9. I wonder what percent of Americans have 401Ks that could generate enough to provide

for retirement.. regardless of the market?

[gabeana]

11. How did your 401k

During the Obama years

[titaniumsalute]

13. Mine went up 300%

Between 2009 and 2017.

[Lurks Often]

14. You won't like the answer

The ones who predicted the stock market would go down if Trump was elected were wrong. As to the future, we'll find out soon enough.

I didn't start my 401K until 2014, but:
From the start date in 2014 to 12/31/2014 it gained 31%
From 1/1/2015-12/31/2015 it gained 13%
From 1/1/2016-12/31/2016 it gained 18%
From 1/1/2017-12/31/2017 it gained 36%
From 1/1/2018 to 1/29/2018 it's gained 8%

The highest 2 options* each had 40% invested in it the remaining 20% is in company stock and for privacy reasons I will not mention who my employer is, only that it makes the Fortune 100 list.

*Generally one of the three following S&P 500 Index Fund, S&P Mid Cap Index Fund or Russell Small Cap Index Fund.

Since around the beginning of 2017 the Emerging Markets Index Fund & International Developed Markets Index Fund have been doing better then 3 I mentioned above. At some point I suspect the 2 S&P's and Russell will catch up again at which point I'll move the money around again, if there is a major adjustment the money will get moved to something very stable, if not very profitable.

[ProfessorGAC]

20. Funny

Those numbers don't come close to matching the DJIA or S&P. The delta of those between 2016 and 2017 was 4.54% relative positive change.

[Lurks Often]

23. The percentages were derived from

dividing the amount at the end of the year by the amount at the beginning of the year.

[lagomorph777]

15. The hundred bucks will be eaten up (and then some) in April 2019.

That's the message we have to sell now.

I know, it requires some folks to think more than 5 minutes into the future, but I believe everybody except the Despicable Disposable Deplorables is capable of that.

[Lurks Often]

18. I don't share your optimism

A bigger tax refund and more money in the paycheck for the average person will be a factor in the election in November.

[lagomorph777]

21. Your optimism is unfounded.

Most Americans (except the top 1% of 1%) will be ripped off by a combination of higher taxes and/or reduced government services and entitlements.

Democrats need to formulate the message to get that truth across.

[Delmette2.0]

24. The 2018 election is before any will be filing their 2018 taxes.

No one will understand what is coming down the track straighht at them.

We need ASAP online models/programs that will project their income tax liability for 2018 and for the next 6 years under the Trump tax plan. If people can see what the long-term results will be of this tax plan they will vote differently. It's all about putting the numbers in front of their face based on their 2017 taxes.

[lagomorph777]

25. YES! You nailed it exactly! Online tax models to tell the truth!

I agree.

[Delmette2.0]

28. Thanks.

Now, who has done this kind of stuff before? A non-profit would be best.

[lagomorph777]

29. Hmm, maybe this is not as hard as it looks...

Turbotax: TaxCaster Income Tax Calculator (forecast effects of "Reform" )


H&R Block: Estimate Your Tax Refund & Tax Reform Impact

Maybe we should do some sample calculations and publish the tools and results.

[Delmette2.0]

30. Yep.

Turbo tax does have it for 2018. I surprised the have muddled through the changes already. I think we need some projections past 2020, isn't that when the pain to the middle class really hits?

I'm not a tax expert or programmer, but some emails to the online tax programs would help.

[lagomorph777]

31. True, it gets worse in the out-years; I don't know if any tool has attempted that

prediction.

Also, we need to include the fact that the Billionaire Tax Cut also includes or drives additional serious damage to the middle and lower classes: loss of government services we've been paying for, increasing health costs, etc.

[mchill]

27. I'm glad I'm not "average"

I live in California, have a mortgage and live on an just ok pension.

My tax cut is 54 cents a month.

[lagomorph777]

32. Woohoo! You're rich!

Oh wait, I hope Social Security and Medicare aren't part of your financial picture. Once Ryan is done with those, you'll be way into the red...

[mchill]

33. No on SS, I have a fed pension, Medicare later this year, but

I also keep my federal employee health insurance as secondary, or I can just stay on my fed insurance as my only insurance.

What to do? I need to find out if I can drop Medicare at some point and just go back to my fed insurance as primary. If so, for now, I'll probably go to Medicare. It's gets more expensive every year one delays.

I'm not that convinced Ryan won't go after my fed pension. For one, we get the same COLA as Social Security and I know the COLA calculation has always been a vulnerable item.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

7. If it falls a few days in a row new WH narrative

"President trump has nothing to due with the daily stock market"

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Is the Obama Bull Market finally over?

Due for a correction? Down 250 so far today.

I never let politics dictate my investments. I don't see the market tanking and I see no reason to remove my money from it. What I do see though is a market way way overdue for a correction. We will see a ~10% correction in the next several months and it will likely be sudden. No reason to panic at all though IMO.

[titaniumsalute]

19. Absolutely

Any President or Congress that takes responsibility for the stock market is nuts. Trump has splashed his name all over the markets...which means when it goes down his name will be all over the markets. And they will correct themselves and I think soon.

[lagomorph777]

16. Market recognizes that Trump's failure to impose sanctions means the end of Trump.

Trump is in greater peril every day, and doing everything possible to make it worse.

[Eyeball_Kid]

26. Yesterday, Hartmann reported that...

... the Fed has stopped buying up Treasury notes, a tactic that was used to maintain "quantitative easing." Reportedly, China, Russia, and Japan have also substantially decreased their purchase of Treasury notes. This has apparently caused an increase in interest rates for the bond market, which may be the substantive reason for the drop in the Dow. Hartmann called this a "Minsky moment", a turning of the worm, so to speak, in financial markets. Hartmann warns that the downward trend may well advance to the stock market.