Is there any good reason that Manafort HASNT flipped yet?

[bearsfootball516]

He has to know Mueller has enough federal and state crimes to put him away for life. And he’s just...content with that?

[ProfessorGAC]

1. $

I believe that is your answer. Someone will take care of him to maintain omerta.

[Ezior]

3. No use for $ when you're in prison for life. I think it's polonium. (no text)

[Hugin]

14. Yeah, the polonium flu or the head injury heart attack. n/t

[dchill]

42. The old "head injury heart attack."

It's going around.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. With A Plea Deal. . .

. . .he isn't going to prison for life. That's the whole reason why someone would cop a plea, right? Admit a lesser thing, get punished and move on. The money comes in handy then, because you'd be too toxic to get hired to anything big money or high profile.

[lapfog_1]

32. he has two daughters

and I imagine the Russian mob has given him two choices...

talk and the daughters are hurt or killed.

keep quiet and maybe someone sets up an escrow account for the two daughters.

[crazylikafox]

2. Putin.

Better in jail than dead.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. His life

Manafort is probably in fear for his life. We know he's broke and can't afford a big shot lawyer to defend him. He's a sitting duck if he starts cooperating and will probably end up in witness protection, but Trump probably has moles in that so he won't be protected.

That's the next step here, people will start to turn up dead/

[dixiegrrrrl]

13. Yep. n/t

[flamingdem]

21. This sounds about right

[bitterross]

34. That was my bet. The Russians will kill him.

He's probably afraid of a little radioactive waste showing up in his food by "accident."

[davekriss]

38. Turn up dead - like the 9 Russians...

...right after the Steele dossier was released

[C_U_L8R]

5. He's betting on a pardon and a big payday.

He must think the odds are in his favor.
Or he might have an escape plan to Moscow.
Beats life in prison.

[MFM008]

7. Exactly

.....

[redstatebluegirl]

10. Yep!

[bluestarone]

11. my thoughts also

[bitterross]

35. He'd better not count on 45 for help.

I'm betting 45's lawyers are telling him to do no pardons because of the consequences to 45 personally. 45 can understand simple logic like "pardon Manfort = going to jail yourself." 45 will throw Manafort under the bus.

ON EDIT:

The Arpaio pardon was just to piss off people and show he could. It had little impact, other than the very positive one of pleasing his base.

Manafort is different. He's not a hero of the Reich-wing

[AJT]

6. Maybe hoping to sneak out of the country( to Russia? )

where he will be protected and have access to all of his hidden money?

[NewJeffCT]

8. he's counting on a pardon from Herr Trump

My guess. And, it's more likely if he holds out in support of Trump rather than flips on him.

[bearsfootball516]

9. Trump cant pardon state crimes.

[NewJeffCT]

15. do we really know that

Schneiderman is going to immediately going to bring state charges? While I've seen claims that he will, and I hope he does if it comes to that, I thought Scheiderman was more looking into the Trump Foundation scams rather than international money laundering.

[woodsprite]

12. He doesn't like the taste of Polonium in his coffee? n/t

[beachbum bob]

17. its a chess game right now

but manafort playing without a queen and no rooks

[safeinOhio]

18. Might be Mueller has so much on him,

he's not offering much of a deal.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

19. I Thought The Assumption Was That He HAD Flipped

That was why he got such a sweetheart of a plea deal.

[PJMcK]

36. Manafort has not gotten a plea deal (n/t)

[davekriss]

40. Youre thinking of Gates, I betcha

Manafort has not been offered a plea deal. Gates, on the other hand, has. “Plead guilty on 2 of the 20+ counts and COOPERATE and you’ll do short time and then be free.”

[MineralMan]

20. Perhaps he HAS, but it hasn't been made public yet.

Mueller is keeping a tight lock on public releases. Do you know that he hasn't?

[Snotcicles]

22. Maybe his agent is telling him to hold out for more. I mean lawyer. nt

[tableturner]

23. Here is my theory:

Manafort knows he is nailed by Mueller/the feds and by at least one state AG. He knows Trump's possible pardons will do him no good due to state involvement (federal money laundering criminal acts are also N.Y. state crimes).

So why has he not flipped? He knows he is looking at decades in prison without a plea, and many years in prison even if he flips. He hates both alternatives.

A look at a Mueller filing Friday about Manafort provides a clue. Manafort has committed new crimes lately, as noted in the filing. Among the new crimes listed by Mueller: He just tried to use collateral pledged for bail as collateral for a loan, which is of course illegal…..you cannot take out a loan on something that is collateral for another transaction.

Why would Manafort try this risky move that he surely knew was likely to be caught by Mueller? In his mind, he had no good alternative. I speculate that he knew he was screwed and hoped for the loan to eke through without notice by Mueller, also hoping to get his bail approved, and finally hoping to furtively flea to a safe place with the loan funds in his possession to pay the bills going forward.

He was trying a hail Mary move, and it did not work. Now he has even more crimes to worry about, making a flip less rewarding than before. But again, he knew he was screwed either way, so he made this last ditch effort that even he knew was not likely to work.

Now with no move available to him to escape justice, he will have to flip, even though that will mean he will still go to prison for many years even though the term will be lower than it would have been without the flip.

That's my theory. One more thing: I would bet a lot of money that Manafort is under twenty-four hour physical surveillance by the feds. Also, by virtue of Mueller's Friday filing on Manafort, it is obvious that Mueller is also carefully watching any financial moves he may try to make.

[bearsfootball516]

24. If I was Mueller, I'd be willing to give him a great plea deal if Manafort is willing

Trump is the big fish here. Mueller probably doesn't give two shits about Manafort. I'd be willing to give him 5 years or less if it means spilling the beans on Trump.

[tableturner]

25. True, but he has Manafort by the short hairs and doesn't need to be lenient to flip him.

Manafort has no good alternatives any more.

[Cosmocat]

29. The FBI should have a detail with the sole duty

of making sure the air is out of the tires on his Mercedes.

He is absolutely the one most likely to to end up in some eastern europe country with no exchange with the US.

Then, accidentally falling out the window of a 7 story building in a few years.

[rainin]

26. Putin or pardon or both. n/t

[TNLib]

27. Puting taking him out

nt

[guillaumeb]

28. Negotiating with Mueller's team?

One possibility.

[mercuryblues]

30. Maybe Mueller doesn't need him to

[Gothmog]

31. Fear of Putin

[jberryhill]

33. There's no value in it

Manafort is so independently dirty that he's going down anyway. He gets nothing out of cooperating, given the number and severity of offenses with which he is charged. There's no way those are going to be set aside for information to get a "bigger fish". He's a pretty big fish on his own. His best bet is to hold out for pardons and mistrials.

[davekriss]

37. He expects to be pardoned?

He’d still be vulnerable for NY state crimes, but he’d be off the hook for federal crimes.

[poboy2]

39. Just heard someone on the Tweety show say...

"Well, if he is a Russian agent he will never flip.

(panel laughs)

I'm not kidding. If he is really a Russian agent, he will not flip."

[former9thward]

41. No one on this board knows what evidence there is.

Maybe he is not guilty. Prosecutors always say they have an air tight case until the trial actually begins. Then, often, it doesn't look so good.