Study: Trump tariffs to cost 146,000 jobs

[DonViejo]

Caitlin Owens 53 mins ago

President Trump's proposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum will increase U.S. employment in those sectors by 33,000 jobs, but cost 179,000 jobs in other areas of the economy, according to a new report by The Trade Partnership, a consulting firm. This isn't accounting for any potential retaliation from other countries.

Between the lines: Republicans' best argument for why they should remain in power is that the economy is doing well under their leadership. The last thing they need is job losses — or retaliation from trading partners.

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https://www.axios.com/study-job-losses-trump-tariffs-eb2efd8c-b21e-4036-a172-69852bb6e1c2.html

[SummerSnow]

1. winning? WTF

[quartz007]

2. Some losses and some gains

Steel industry and Aluminum industry will gain jobs.
Those industries who use a lot of steel will lose.

[unblock]

3. 146,000 is the net: +33,000 gains in steel and aluminum, -179,000 in other areas.

[quartz007]

4. I do not trust surveys & polls

Polls were big disappointment on Nov 8th 2016.

[unblock]

5. not sure what the methodology was

i suspect they have a more involved econometric model.

there are other factors as well, of course, even if the tariffs is adopted exactly as donnie proposed.
and there is some variability to the outcomes.


that said, they can't exactly "electoral college" the economy....

[quartz007]

6. I am basically pro-free-trade but

it has to be fair trade as well. During my 2 decades long job with a manufacturing outfit, we faced situation where Japan gov't was offering very cheap loans to American buyers of Japanese machines. But US gov't offers no such loans. That was unfair trade. Even though the buyer desired our machines because of access to quick service when needed and the quality reputation of our machines, they did not have the cash to purchase without a loan. Japan gave them 1% interest loans! Whereas going rate of business loans in USA was 7%+.

[unblock]

7. i support sensible government oversight. but i trust donnie will always abuse and misuse the power.

in this case it doesn't even sound like he knows what he's doing.

i'm sure he's making money off it somehow, though i don't know what his angle is.

yet.

[quartz007]

8. I know why Donnie wants tariffs.

He wants another electoral win in 2020. He is trying to seduce union workers in PA, OH, WI and MI who could be helped by steel & Aluminum tariffs.

[dawg]

9. If no one retaliates, that is.

If they do, it could get much, much worse.