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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPA-18: Dem Leads In New Poll Of Hotly Contested Pennsylvania House Race
Democrats are on the verge of a major upset victory deep in Trump country, according to a new bipartisan poll shared first with TPM.
Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone by 48 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted by RABA Research, a bipartisan firm. That would mark a huge upset in a conservative district that stretches from Pittsburgh to the West Virginia border that President Trump won by 20 points in 2016. It would give Democrats their first House special election victory of the Trump era on Tuesday night.
That marks the largest lead for Lamb seen in any public polling so far but its not far from what other public and private polls have found in recent days and weeks on the race, most of which have found a margin-of-error race with Lamb having the momentum. Two other public polls of the race found each candidate with a three-point lead, and Republicans are privately sounding more than a little gloomy about Saccones chances on Tuesday.
Trump plans to campaign there on Saturday to try to goose GOP base turnout for Saccone, who has mightily struggled with fundraising and getting his name out there as GOP outside groups have had to pick up the slack with millions of dollars worth of TV ads. But according to the survey, the president is currently unpopular with the districts most likely voters, with 48 percent of those saying they definitely or probably plan to vote in the race disapproving of his job performance to just 44 percent who approve. Similarly, the poll suggests a lopsided edge for Democratic enthusiasm: Though the district is fairly solidly Republican, 41 percent of those surveyed said they were Democratic and 40 percent identified as Republican.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/exclusive-dem-leads-in-new-poll-of-hotly-contested-pennsylvania-house-race
Wounded Bear
(58,590 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)so no telling what the effect is in this poll....
RandySF
(58,455 posts)I know Lamb supports them.
blue neen
(12,319 posts)Trump made his initial announcement about the tariffs on March 1.
Funtatlaguy
(10,862 posts)Trump will try to sway them tomorrow with his soaring rhetoric.
Orange Free State
(611 posts)Coinciding with the Dotards appearance in Pa-18.