NYT: Pennsylvania Special Election Results

[Stallion]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

[Stallion]

1. Mood Music

[bearsfootball516]

2. I counter!

[poboy2]

18. ha, 30 mins worth much obliged. -nt

[LAS14]

3. When are the votes going to start to come in??? It's been 12 minutes!!!! No computers???? nt

[Stallion]

4. They Estimate 8:20 EST

[DeminPennswoods]

5. Having worked as part of an election board

It takes about 30 minutes or more to close the poll, check the manual count of voters from your list of voters who voted with the count on the voting machines, check the voting machines, print out the results, have the election board sign them, secure the voting machines and gather up and pack all the relevent voting materials like absentee voter list, voter list, poll books, etc, for distribution to the county election official, clean up, post the results on the polling place entrance and lock the door.

[LAS14]

6. OK. It's 4 minutes passed 8:20. Where are the votes?????? nt

[Stallion]

7. County Votes Have Lamb Up by 25 Votes

240-215

We're off!!!

[Takket]

8. gnawing on my shirt

[riversedge]

9. Conor Lamb Democrat 10,975 58.6% Rick Saccone Republican 7,658 40.9

Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 10,975 58.6%
Rick Saccone Republican 7,658 40.9
Drew Miller Libertarian 105 0.6

18,738 votes, 10% reporting (60 of 593 precincts)
Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 18 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 10 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?

[riversedge]

10. Conor Lamb Democrat 13,850 59.0% Rick Saccone Republican 9,494 40.4

Conor Lamb leads by 19 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 13 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 13,850 59.0%
Rick Saccone Republican 9,494 40.4
Drew Miller Libertarian 134 0.6

23,478 votes, 13% reporting (76 of 593 precincts)

[LAS14]

11. Yeah, but scroll down at the NYT web site. Prediction is Tossup. BUT..

... the prediction changes every few minutes. A great website.

[riversedge]

14. yes, I know. I am not counting my chickies at this time.

[mvd]

13. Why does NYT have Saccone winning in their estimates?

Makes no sense from what I have seen.

[riversedge]

16. "they try to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the ga

It is their explanation. They know the stats from previous elections I think




Live Estimates of the Final Vote
Updated at 8:59:14 PM ET

Our estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they try to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecast.

Right now, our most likely estimates span Lamb +12 to Saccone +16. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

If we had to guess, we’d give the advantage to Mr. Saccone, but the race is close.

[mvd]

22. I saw - just didn't look well explained

I bet they go back and forth too easily.

[BlueStater]

19. My guess is that the most conservative areas have yet to be called.

I can't imagine what else it would be.

[budkin]

21. Because apparently there are a higher percentage of GOP counties to be counted

[riversedge]

12. Our best guess is that Mr. Saccone has a small advantage, but the race is very close.

Live Estimates of the Final Vote
Updated at 8:57:38 PM ET

Our estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they try to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecast.

Right now, our most likely estimates span Lamb +13 to Saccone +15. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

Our best guess is that Mr. Saccone has a small advantage, but the race is very close.

[grantcart]

20. Their bouncing needle is giving me a heart attack

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html#eln-forecast-section

[budkin]

15. That fucking needle still gives me nightmares from election night 2016

I won't look at it.

[grantcart]

25. no kidding

[yardwork]

40. Turn the jitter off. The jitter will kill you.

[PA Democrat]

17. Westmoreland County has ZERO precincts reporting?

Not surprising that Trump country is F***ed up.

[krawhitham]

23. They need to know the number of votes to create

[riversedge]

24. now cnn says West....has Repub up 10pts

[grantcart]

28. Now lamb is ahead

[Johnny2X2X]

26. Not looking great.

Optimist in me says it’s still a toss up.

[budkin]

27. Not looking good for Lamb

64% chance of Saccone win now and it just keeps increasing.

[grantcart]

29. now 51% Lamb

[mvd]

30. Lamb back ahead in the NYT estimate

Looking at that can be nerve wracking! Hope he stays ahead now.

[BlueStater]

31. Now they're predicting Lamb will win again.

It's fluctuating constantly.

[DeminPennswoods]

32. Westmoreland county results

As of 9:02

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS 18TH DISTRICT
Vote for NOT MORE THAN 1
(WITH 52 OF 193 PRECINCTS COUNTED 26.94%)
Rick Saccone (REP) . . . . . . . 8,144 54.45 8,144 0
Conor Lamb (DEM) . . . . . . . . 6,692 44.74 6,692 0
Drew Gray Miller (LN) . . . . . . 107 .72 107 0
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 15 .10 15 0
Total . . . . . . . . . 14,958 14,958

Link:https://www.co.westmoreland.pa.us/erlinkcp

Main page: https://www.co.westmoreland.pa.us/electionresults

[riversedge]

33. 🌊🌊🌊 #FlipItBlue #BlueWave2018 #ConorLambPA...

Conor Lamb Democrat 42,950 54.3%
Rick Saccone Republican 35,613 45.1
Drew Miller Libertarian 469 0.6

79,032 votes, 40% reporting (235 of 593 precincts)

The Pennsylvania special election on Tuesday, in a red House district, has evolved into the latest test of whether Democrats can make inroads with voters who supported Donald J. Trump for president.

In 2016, Mr. Trump won the district by double digits, but the race between Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat, and Rick Saccone, a Republican, has become unexpectedly competitive. Mr. Lamb could score an upset over Mr. Saccone, a Trump ally, if he can pair strong Democratic turnout in Allegheny County with crossover support from conservative-leaning towns in Washington and Greene Counties.

Whoever wins will have to decide soon which district to run in this year. The State Supreme Court threw out Pennsylvania’s current congressional map and recently issued a new map with redrawn boundaries. Tim Murphy, a Republican, resigned from the seat last year after reports that he encouraged a woman, with whom he had an affair, to have an abortion. Polls closed at 8 p.m. Eastern time. Here’s what to watch for.

Get Election Updates Want to know when we’ll have live election results? Sign up to be notified on election days.

[riversedge]

34. Conor Lamb Democrat 47,370 53.6% Rick Saccone Republican 40,386 45.7

Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 8 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 45 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 47,370 53.6%
Rick Saccone Republican 40,386 45.7

[Drunken Irishman]

35. Lamb is underperforming in some areas but also overperforming in Allegheny. Margins will be key.

[honest.abe]

36. I predict Lamb 52 Sac 47

[riversedge]

37. Lamb leads by 5 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 58 percent of precincts fully reporting. J

Conor Lamb leads by 5 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 58 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 59,600 52.3%
Rick Saccone Republican 53,752 47.1

[dalton99a]

38. Kick

[grantcart]

39. 58% in. A lot of Republican area votes came in but the 6-7,000 vote margin stayed the same

[grantcart]

41. 61% in and the 6,000 margin is remaining very stable so far.

[Stallion]

42. Saccone Might Be Able to Make Up 4,000 or So in Westmoreland

but he needs more

[grantcart]

44. They pulled the needle because of Westmoreland

[grantcart]

48. the number of votes left in Alleghany and Westmoreland are roughly the same

if the percent left is total votes and not precincts.

Each county has about 14,000 more votes left.

Very difficult to make up 5,000 votes with 30k left

[wisteria]

51. Oh they are looking for them.

Can’t let a Dem win.

[riversedge]

43. Shift from 2016 Presidential Election......

sorry not able to transfer graph but you will enjoy. yes. you. will




https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html#eln-forecast-section

Leader

Lamb

Saccone

No results

Tied

Precinct results are not currently available for Westmoreland County. Precinct results may not match district-wide results.
Shift from 2016 Presidential Election
ALLEGHENY
WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND
GREENE

[wisteria]

49. They cheated In Westmoreland County during the Presidential election.

So many unusual things going on, I don’t necessarily trust them this time around.

[Stallion]

45. Wow! I Think Something is Wrong With Westmoreland County Votes

NYT:

Live Estimates of the Final Vote
Reliable precinct data is not currently available. Our forecast is not trustworthy right now.



I've been thinking their "votes Remaining" wasn't working in that county--otherwise I think things are looking good

[honest.abe]

47. GOPers cheating again.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210352631

[Stallion]

52. Westmoreland (Saccone Stronghold) Up to 88% Reporting

[appalachiablue]

75. Nate Cohn's Tweet on delayed reporting for (GOP) Westmoreland Co. troubling!

Nail biter! Ugh..

[wisteria]

50. Yeah how about that.

[riversedge]

46. Lamb leads by 4 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 71 percent of precincts fully reporting. Ju

tightening.





Conor Lamb leads by 4 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 71 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 75,189 51.5%
Rick Saccone Republican 70,005 47.9
Drew Miller Libertarian 893 0.6

146,087 votes, 71% reporting (422 of 593 precincts)

[riversedge]

53. Lamb Democrat 91,687 50.4% Rick Saccone Republican 89,194 49.0

Conor Lamb leads by 1.4 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 87 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 91,687 50.4%
Rick Saccone Republican 89,194 49.0

[riversedge]

55. Lamb Democrat 93,388 50.5% Rick Saccone Republican 90,566 48.9

Conor Lamb leads by 1.5 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 88 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 93,388 50.5%
Rick Saccone Republican 90,566 48.9

[Awsi Dooger]

54. Worthless without the estimator

That's the sophisticated aspect. Otherwise it's mostly random noise.

I don't know enough about this district and when/where the votes come in to understand what to expect.

[riversedge]

56. Lamb leads by 0.4 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 94 percent of precincts fully reporting.

Conor Lamb leads by 0.4 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 94 percent of precincts fully reporting.

[riversedge]

57. Lamb Democrat 101,907 49.9% Rick Saccone Republican 100,979 49.5

Conor Lamb leads by 0.5 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 95 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 101,907 49.9%
Rick Saccone Republican 100,979 49.5

[honest.abe]

58. Based on whats left Lamb wins by about 1000 votes.

My math.

[Tatiana]

59. Westmoreland just reported. And Lamb is still leading.

Albeit, by just a bit.

But there looks like there is still some outstanding in Allegheny?

He'll probably eek this one out.

[honest.abe]

60. Yep... barely

Whew!

[riversedge]

61. Lamb Democrat 102,839 50.0% Rick Saccone Republican 101,707 49.4

LIVE 9:59:25 PM ET
Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 0.6 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 95 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 102,839 50.0%
Rick Saccone Republican 101,707 49.4

[ananda]

62. Remaining precincts: 12 in Allegheny, 5 in Westmoreland, 13 in Washington.

soon

[budkin]

64. Is that good for us? I know nothing of PA

[mvd]

67. The only 5 in Westmoreland is good

Depends on size of the precincts, however.

[honest.abe]

68. Yes.. Allegheny is blue.

Lamb gains in Allegheny will offset Sac gains in the others... so the difference remains about the same.. imo.

~1000 vote win for Lamb.

[riversedge]

69. Conner is counting on Alle.

[budkin]

63. We might be headed for a recount

Damn this is close

[riversedge]

65. Lamb Democrat 102,839 50.0% Rick Saccone Republican 101,707 49.4

LIVE 10:01:24 PM ET
Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 0.6 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 95 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 102,839 50.0%
Rick Saccone Republican 101,707 49.4
Drew Miller Libertarian 1,267 0.6

[Hermit-The-Prog]

70. thanks bunches for these updates!

[DeminPennswoods]

66. County percent in

Greene 100%
Westmoreland 97%
Allegheny 96%
Washington 90%

[riversedge]

71. Lamb Democrat 103,768 50.0% Rick Saccone Republican 102,530 49.4

LIVE 10:06:34 PM ET
Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 0.6 percentage points, or 1,238 votes, over Rick Saccone with 96 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 103,768 50.0%
Rick Saccone Republican 102,530 49.4

[Stallion]

72. Anybody Have a Perspective on Absentee Voting

Big City? or Rural
D or R?

[Tatiana]

73. If Conor pulls this out, we should thank Drew Miller.

He's pulling votes from Saccone and those votes may make the difference.

[riversedge]

74. Steve K. less than 9 Thousand votes to be counted

[riversedge]

76. about 3,000 votes left in Allegemy; westmorland more votes coming which is repug area, also

washington is mostly repug and waiting for votes

[yardwork]

77. What's left to come in in Washington County?

[riversedge]

78. Lamb Democrat 104,697 49.9% Rick Saccone Republican 103,779 49.5

LIVE 10:16:18 PM ET
Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 0.4 percentage points, or 918 votes, over Rick Saccone with 96 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 104,697 49.9%
Rick Saccone Republican 103,779 49.5

[radius777]

79. yikes, Lamb now up by only 900 votes

Conor Lamb leads by 0.4 percentage points over Rick Saccone with 96 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 104,697 49.9%
Rick Saccone Republican 103,779 49.5
Drew Miller Libertarian 1,280 0.6

209,756 votes, 96% reporting (571 of 593 precincts)
---


hopefully the allegheny outstanding votes will balance out westmoreland.

theres' gotta be enough Dem votes left to pull it out.

[riversedge]

80. EEKS only 540 votes difference

[grantcart]

82. now 585

[mtngirl47]

81. Wow--looking at that map--some kind of gerrymandering! n/t

[w100jmi]

90. Lamb is getting 40-45% of the votes in Washington....

I expect Lamb will win by a narrow of 100 votes. - / ÷ 25

[riversedge]

83. now lamb only up by 585 votes and 1, 400 absentee ballots out yet. do not know if will count

tonight.

[riversedge]

84. Lamb Democrat 107,155 49.8% Rick Saccone Republican 106,570 49.6

LIVE 10:26:21 PM ET
Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 585 votes, over Rick Saccone with 98 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 107,155 49.8%
Rick Saccone Republican 106,570 49.6

[mountain grammy]

85. 98% counted

Lamb leads by 585 votes.

[bucolic_frolic]

86. This will not be called tonight

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[mountain grammy]

96. ratfuckery going on.

[keithbvadu2]

87. Keep counting

[Stallion]

88. Back Up to 700 Vote Lead

[riversedge]

89. Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 700 votes, over Rick Saccone with 98 percent of precincts fu

LIVE 10:31:30 PM ET
Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

By NATE COHN, JOSH KATZ, SARAH ALMUKHTAR and MATTHEW BLOCH

Conor Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 700 votes, over Rick Saccone with 98 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 107,471 49.9%
Rick Saccone Republican 106,771 49.5

[ffr]

91. So this is what polling 5% ahead results in, a 700 vote lead.

Who did they poll?

Plust, as they've pointed out, there are 4,000 absentee ballots that haven't been counted and won't be counted for days. This doesn't conclude tonight by the looks of it.

[lindysalsagal]

92. I just read cnn is there now watching the count. Midnight eta.

Fingers crossed.

[SergeStorms]

97. Midnight in Allegheny county.....

the other two REPUBLICAN districts won't be until tomorrow. They have to see how many votes they need to beat Lamb before they chime in.

[dalton99a]

100. +1

[Motownman78]

94. That was with high turnout.

Turnout is at 2014 levels. Very low.

[Tatiana]

98. Lamb never had that big of a lead.

It's like 2016 Hillary polling all over again. They get the media to talk up the Democrats leading in the polls to motivate the Rethugs to come out an vote. Looks like it worked, too. Over 200K+ votes.

This was always a 1-2 point race. That doesn't mean that Republicans aren't cheating or trying to manufacture votes in Westmoreland...

[ffr]

93. +755

holding.

[Motownman78]

95. But all of Alleghany is in

[k8conant]

101. but NOT the ALLEGHENY absentee ballots....

[Blue_true]

105. Not absentee votes. They have leaned Dem.

Should be close, but Lamb eeks out a win.

[Stallion]

99. Hope We Don't Have a John Connally Situation

Alleghany 100% -hopefully w/o absentees

in LBJ's first run for the Senate he talks about all LBJ's precinct being in so that gave Pappy O'Daniel the information he needed to steal the election. See LBJ American Experience

[D23MIURG23]

102. Check out the 'shift from 2016 presidential election' graphic.

So much blue shift you'd think it was coming at you at a million miles per hour.

[radius777]

103. tie game, Sack just made up most of the ground

Conor Lamb leads by 0.0 percentage points, or 95 votes, over Rick Saccone with 99 percent of precincts fully reporting.
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Conor Lamb Democrat 109,945 49.7%
Rick Saccone Republican 109,850 49.7
Drew Miller Libertarian 1,334 0.6

221,129 votes, 99% reporting (591 of 593 precincts)

[mbusby]

104. Lamb ahead...

...by 95 votes, still counting.

[Stargleamer]

106. up to 0.4% ahead again

if I read this correctly (847 votes ahead)

[ffr]

107. 847 with 99.6% reporting.

close

[riversedge]

108. all of Allegamy absentee votes have been included in the totals now. Lamb 11, 875; 11028 for

the repug. 2 counties will not be counting their absentee votes tonight

[Blue_true]

109. If their absentee percentages go like the day vote, Saccone

won't be able to close the margin that Lamb has. Absentee votes tend to be military and highly educated people, I would say overall that favors Lamb, even in the heavily republican areas. Saccone has to win ~63% of remaining absentees, don't see him doing that based upon day count and who absentees tend to favor.