General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsUh oh. If Trump's approval rating continues on the same trajectory...
He may be over 50% approval by the time elections come around in November.
The basic chart is from fivethirtyeight.com which averages all the approval polls weighted for reliability and accuracy.
I noticed a pattern so I overlaid an arc of a circle and found it lines up very closely to the overall pattern.
If this arc continues as it has been up to now he should reach around 55% approval by November 6.
Sounds insane and I hope something happens to break the pattern but it is kind of striking to see how closely this arc seems to fit.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)wrong place
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)All he needs is 15% that is amendable to get to 50%.
November is 7 months away, but if we continue to let small stuff divide us, we are not going to do as well as we should.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)spanone
(135,636 posts)dameatball
(7,380 posts)ProudLib72
(17,984 posts)Cattledog
(5,897 posts)mvd
(65,148 posts)Putinesque fake polls.
Wounded Bear
(58,440 posts)I just don't see it.
blake2012
(1,294 posts)looks like the other poster is correct. you're clearly not aware of how statistics work.
LuckyCharms
(17,287 posts)Kablooie
(18,572 posts)But I know graphics and saw an arc.
Thought I'd see how close to a real arc compared to the graph.
LuckyCharms
(17,287 posts)This is not even close as to the correct way to predict a trend line.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)LuckyCharms
(17,287 posts)Kablooie
(18,572 posts)Le Gaucher
(1,547 posts)He will be so popular that people will agree no election is required.
But just to prove it .. they will hold elections and vote tally will be greater than number of registered voters.
QED
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)former9thward
(31,805 posts)The approval polls are weighted by population. If he is at 42% nationally it means that in the 48 states outside of CA and NY he is around 50%. He is deeply unpopular in CA and NY and if those high population states are taken out of the equation he has to be close to 50% to make the math work nationally. He doesn't care if he is unpopular in those two states because both are about as Democratic as they are going to get already.
Unfortunately polling companies do not release state by state results which would show what I am posting about.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Surprised to see this.