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Kablooie

(18,572 posts)
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 06:59 PM Mar 2018

Uh oh. If Trump's approval rating continues on the same trajectory...

He may be over 50% approval by the time elections come around in November.



The basic chart is from fivethirtyeight.com which averages all the approval polls weighted for reliability and accuracy.
I noticed a pattern so I overlaid an arc of a circle and found it lines up very closely to the overall pattern.
If this arc continues as it has been up to now he should reach around 55% approval by November 6.

Sounds insane and I hope something happens to break the pattern but it is kind of striking to see how closely this arc seems to fit.

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Uh oh. If Trump's approval rating continues on the same trajectory... (Original Post) Kablooie Mar 2018 OP
If this vile, vicious, lying no good fucking racist pile of human garbage is popular, we are in the Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #1
Look, he has 35% that WILL NOT LEAVE HIM FOR ANY REASON. Blue_true Mar 2018 #5
I know, I agree. THey are going DOWN Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #8
You have failed at Statistics. Sorry. PubliusEnigma Mar 2018 #2
no. chance. spanone Mar 2018 #3
Was this chart provided by the adult video industry? dameatball Mar 2018 #4
Are you imagining Spanky's "arc" is more abreviated? ProudLib72 Mar 2018 #7
So he'll be at 60% in Nov. Cattledog Mar 2018 #6
The only way he'll be at 60% is if he implements.. mvd Mar 2018 #9
I don't see him rising above his vote totals of 2016... Wounded Bear Mar 2018 #10
not even close. linear regression of existing mean would not produce that result blake2012 Mar 2018 #11
+1 LuckyCharms Mar 2018 #12
I have no idea whatsoever how statistics work. Kablooie Mar 2018 #21
So, by using the "arc of a circle", his approval would approach 100% in short order. LuckyCharms Mar 2018 #13
Eventually this method will take us all backward in time Loki Liesmith Mar 2018 #14
Just like this administration is doing! LuckyCharms Mar 2018 #15
See, the arc is correct. :) Kablooie Mar 2018 #22
And by 2020 he will be in Putin territory. 110% Le Gaucher Mar 2018 #16
Using your method, everyone on DU will love him in 2020 marylandblue Mar 2018 #17
People tend to forget the math in these polls. former9thward Mar 2018 #18
Quinnipiac had him at 42 in Florida to start the month. NCTraveler Mar 2018 #20
This is an abuse of statistics. NCTraveler Mar 2018 #19

Eliot Rosewater

(31,097 posts)
1. If this vile, vicious, lying no good fucking racist pile of human garbage is popular, we are in the
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:01 PM
Mar 2018

wrong place

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
5. Look, he has 35% that WILL NOT LEAVE HIM FOR ANY REASON.
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:04 PM
Mar 2018

All he needs is 15% that is amendable to get to 50%.

November is 7 months away, but if we continue to let small stuff divide us, we are not going to do as well as we should.

 

blake2012

(1,294 posts)
11. not even close. linear regression of existing mean would not produce that result
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:11 PM
Mar 2018

looks like the other poster is correct. you're clearly not aware of how statistics work.

Kablooie

(18,572 posts)
21. I have no idea whatsoever how statistics work.
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 08:57 PM
Mar 2018

But I know graphics and saw an arc.
Thought I'd see how close to a real arc compared to the graph.

LuckyCharms

(17,287 posts)
13. So, by using the "arc of a circle", his approval would approach 100% in short order.
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:16 PM
Mar 2018

This is not even close as to the correct way to predict a trend line.

 

Le Gaucher

(1,547 posts)
16. And by 2020 he will be in Putin territory. 110%
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:22 PM
Mar 2018

He will be so popular that people will agree no election is required.

But just to prove it .. they will hold elections and vote tally will be greater than number of registered voters.

QED

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
18. People tend to forget the math in these polls.
Tue Mar 27, 2018, 07:26 PM
Mar 2018

The approval polls are weighted by population. If he is at 42% nationally it means that in the 48 states outside of CA and NY he is around 50%. He is deeply unpopular in CA and NY and if those high population states are taken out of the equation he has to be close to 50% to make the math work nationally. He doesn't care if he is unpopular in those two states because both are about as Democratic as they are going to get already.

Unfortunately polling companies do not release state by state results which would show what I am posting about.

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