Its the economy stupid
Trump and his clown posse’s crowing aside, no serious economist would dare attribute the current unemployment or Stock market rise to trump. A “do nothing” republican congress has done nothing to change the trend line that already existed during Obama’s administration. The long term impact of the much hailed “tax cuts” won’t be reflected in our economy for several years and the short term gains haven’t either, it was just a couple months ago.
If anything, the unfortunate combination of a do nothing congress and the most chaotic executive branch in US history has set the stage for significant economic uncertainty. An example of that is the erratic stock market, with extreme rises and falls over short periods of time, is just the beginning of more chaos to come as businesses try to understand what this administration is doing and what its constantly changing policies really are.
That uncertainty in the markets will soon cascade out to hiring, durable goods orders and consumer confidence.
Example is the much hailed unemployment numbers. We are far below what economists consider “full employment” which is 5.6% as we currently sit at 4.1% the expected impact of numbers this low is a rise in inflationary pressure as demand and wages rise. Not only has that not happened but the Atlanta Fed 3-month averages for wages show they have decreased over the last year (https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx?panel=1 )
Why? Best guess is that companies are redirecting any growth into stock buybacks and dividends and not expanding or innovating or raising wages ( https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-0214-stock-buybacks-20180213-story,amp.html) why? Because it’s makes CEOs filthy rich and gives stockholders short term instant gratification with a bump in stock value.
Stock buybacks do nothing for the economy.
That said, we have rising prices that typically were shouted from the mountain tops in election years but we are are silent on it so far this time around. Gas has been rising sharply. According to AAA, gas is up ten cents in the last month and 35 cents more than this time last year, it’s well over $3 a gallon in many areas. Obama would have been beat up every day in the news with those numbers but trump gets crickets.
Healthcare cost continue to rise and the uninsured has increased dramatically: in 11/2016 it was 10.9% and in 01/2018 it was 12.4%, a 12% rise, the largest increase in uninsured since the ACA started. Trump gets crickets.
My point is that while making it about trump will work in some cases but in order to win the rust belt and other trump areas we have to make it about the economy. We have to use facts, numbers and their lives: “are you better today than you were two years ago?” In most cases the honest answer will “no change” or “worse” in the end it’s back to basics: it’s about the economy.
