Warren leads poll for 2020 nominee, Biden second

[ehrnst]

Elizabeth Warren leads a field of potential Democratic presidential contenders for the 2020 New Hampshire primary, according to a new poll of likely Democratic voters.

A University of New Hampshire poll released Wednesday shows Warren with 26 percent support in a hypothetical matchup against other potential 2020 challengers, including former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont.).

Link to tweet

Warren leading the 2020 Dem field according to new Suffolk University poll of NH Democratic primary voters.
Warren 26%
Biden 20%
Sanders 13%
Booker 8%
Kamala Harris 4%
Deval Patrick 4%
Gillibrand 2%
McAuliffe 2%
Undecided 18%


Poll:

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/5_2_2018_marginals.pdf

[Soxfan58]

1. It's early

But there are some damn good choices on that list.

[Gothmog]

2. Interesting polling

[ehrnst]

4. Yeah - "Undecided" comes in third after Warren and Biden. (nt)

[SidDithers]

25. +1...nt

Sid

[oberliner]

3. Will Elizabeth Warren calling for Al Franken to resign have an impact?

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has finally joined the chorus of calls for Sen. Al Franken to step aside, after GOP critics blasted her for failing to reprimand her Democratic colleague.

"I think he should resign," Warren said in a brief statement, after the Herald asked whether she had a position on Franken, the Minnesota Democrat under siege for sexual harassment allegations.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2017/12/elizabeth_warren_calls_on_al_franken_to_resign

[George II]

6. "Will"? This poll was conducted after that quote, so I guess it should be asked "Did".

Of all the issues and things going on in the House, Senate, and the country overall, is that the most important issue here in May 2018?

[oberliner]

7. I mean in terms of the actual 2020 primary

Not relevant for 2018, of course, but the OP is about 2020 potential presidential candidates.

Some folks at DU have said they will never forgive the Democrats who called for Franken to resign. Warren was among those Democrats.

[ehrnst]

10. I hope that a politician's actual record of accomplishments

will be the basis for voting on a candidate.

However, the blistering rage from the left directed at her in 2016 when she endorse HRC, doesn't seem to have affected her in this poll either, so I wonder if the Franken fallout will be more of an issue.

[Demsrule86]

14. 16 is over. I am hoping there are not enough disaffected voters to cause us to lose the 20 election

I have never believed Sen. Sanders will win the nomination...this poll is encouraging. Perhaps Democrats will be OK in 20...and of course the country as well. Trump or any other GOP type would be a disaster.

[Demsrule86]

15. Those on the left that preferred Trump over Clinton can fuck themselves. They are no better than

any Trump supporter.

[elocs]

51. Well, there were some on the Left who hated Clinton every bit as much as any right winger

and they perversely wanted to teach the Democratic Party a lesson for nominating Clinton along with the millions of Americans who voted for her in the primaries and so Trump is the punishment they think we deserve.
In the primaries I will only support a candidate who is a member of the Democratic Party and has dedicated themselves as a Democrat to run as a Democrat in elections in the course of their political lives.

[Demsrule86]

57. I am with you...and again fuck those who thought Trump was better than Clinton.

I sincerely hope they suffer 1000 times more than those they screwed over by voting for Trump.

[Demsrule86]

17. People say many foolish things...what do you think they would vote for the GOP...not happening.

[Demsrule86]

18. Of course not...no one else has even mentioned it.

[Demsrule86]

12. No it wont' despite the constant attempt to cause division over this issue...it will not be a

campaign issue in 20...30 Senators send the same message to Franken who could have soldiered on an refused to resign until a proper investigation was conducted...this idea that Dems will throw the 20 election away or pick a certain candidate based on Franken is ridiculous and I well remember your many posts defending Gillibrand.

[NCTraveler]

29. As much as it will impact Sanders.

It won't.

[sheshe2]

42. Oh ugh!

The Boston Herald leans very very right.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

48. I'd bet Franken would endorse her early and often. That should take care of it.

[betsuni]

5. K&R

[NurseJackie]

8. Awkward.

Twenty-six percent means someone is TWICE as popular as someone with thirteen percent. And/or, thirteen percent means someone is just HALF as popular as someone with twenty-six percent.

That's not a very promising sign for the "most popular" politician in the known universe.

[ehrnst]

11. It's certainly a change from the results of this same poll in October.

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_fall_primary101817.pdf


http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/356098-sanders-leads-new-hampshire-poll-of-possible-2020-dem

[Demsrule86]

16. This is a New Hampshire poll which I think is significant given how close Vermont and New Hampshire

are.

[NurseJackie]

37. I know!! I thought of that as well. The folks in NH are "tailor-made" for him. If...

I know!! I thought of that as well. The folks in NH are "tailor-made" for him. If he's trailing in NH, then he's certainly NOT do very well in states that are more ethnically diverse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire#Population

White: 93.9% (92.3% non-Hispanic)
Black or African American: 1.1%
American Indian and Alaska Native: 0.2%
Asian: 2.2%
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander: approx. 0.0%
Other race: 0.9%
Two or more races: 1.6%

[Demsrule86]

58. Exactly, if he runs, I hope we can get him out early...so he doesn't have time to trash

Democrats...I wonder if he will run as an independent as he is now supporting independents over Democrats.

[ehrnst]

62. He stated that one can't run for POTUS without $ or media coverage - which a party provides

You can't just wake up one day and decide to run for President, and do it as an Independent. He's a millionaire now, but you can't really even do that if you are a billionaire.

An established party has an infrastructure in place, so you don't have to build it from scratch every four years. There are local party offices, volunteer bases, and all the other things that make a run for POTUS possible.

That's what an "establishment party" provides a candidate, even if that candidate has claimed that they are "anti-establishment."

When you run for office in Rome, you wind up doing as the Romans do.

[sheshe2]

54. Oh my

That is quite a shift.

[Demsrule86]

13. And the attacks on Elizabeth Warren will begin shortly.

[George II]

24. I think we've already seen one or two.

[Demsrule86]

28. Indeed we have.

[sheshe2]

55. That is a fact.

They will intensify.

[NCTraveler]

30. Their message isn't going to be very complex.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210570644#post3

[Demsrule86]

31. Yeah how was that even relevant considering that others on the list did the same thing.

[NCTraveler]

33. You just nailed it. It was a swipe with no relevance. nt.

[Demsrule86]

59. Multiple posts that bring up different issues...all meant to divide.

[ehrnst]

35. Yep. (nt)

[sheshe2]

43. Yep!

[R B Garr]

19. That is what stuck out to me, too.

Then when you add the 26% and the 20% of the TOP two, a very distant third at 13% looks dismal. Certainly not a good showing for the most popular in the galaxy/Milky Way name.

Great post, NJ.

[NurseJackie]

38. I'm encouraged by this. Especially when one considers that NH lacks ethnic diversity...

I'm encouraged by this. Especially when one considers that NH lacks ethnic diversity which is found in other states.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire#Population

White: 93.9% (92.3% non-Hispanic)
Black or African American: 1.1%
American Indian and Alaska Native: 0.2%
Asian: 2.2%
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander: approx. 0.0%
Other race: 0.9%
Two or more races: 1.6%

[Maven]

39. IT WAS RIGGED!!!!!111!!11

[NurseJackie]

41. Ha! (I know, right?)

Another thing that strikes me has to do with a politician's "name recognition". In these types of polls, a politician often ranks higher because of the person taking the poll has simply "heard of" the politician.

It's not a true indicator of whether they'll actually VOTE for the candidate, only that they've HEARD of the candidate *AND* they don't perceive the candidate as having any "baggage".

Well... after 2016, I can assure you that not very many people haven't heard of Bernie Sanders. So... what I'm wondering is this: WHERE IS HIS "NAME RECOGNITION" BUMP?

I mean, it makes sense that Cory Booker is straggling behind at 8% ... he's really not a NATIONAL political figure yet. But when someone as well-known as Bernie Sanders is polling just 5 points ahead of Cory Booker (and when it's in a homogeneous state like NH that lacks diversity) that certainly doesn't bode well for Sanders.

[Me.]

53. ...

[MrsCoffee]

9. K&R

[George II]

20. I guess when it comes to actual elections, "popularity" within one's own state....

....isn't the overriding factor to voters.d

There will be about 30+ million voters in the primaries in 2020, and about 130+ million voters in the general election. That's a far cry from only 300,000-400,000.

[redstatebluegirl]

21. We had better keep our focus on 2018 or we won't be here in 2020.

We will all be locked up as dissidents disloyal to the government, or blown to bits when he hits the button in a fit of uncontrolled rage.

[SidDithers]

22. DU rec...

Sid

[brer cat]

23. It's interesting that they asked

for the youngest member of the household. I don't recall seeing that in previous polls, but I could have missed it.

[democratisphere]

26. Would be great if the "Undecided 18%" flipped to Adam Schiff.

[ehrnst]

27. He is burning it up, isn't he? (nt)

[democratisphere]

32. I don't see anyone burning it up, at this extremely early point,

in the non-existent 2020 Presidiential race!

[ehrnst]

34. I meant doing his job, not running for POTUS. (nt)

[R B Garr]

36. Adam Schiff is awesome. I remember his epic takedown of the Clinton

impeachment debacle ring leader, Rogan. He cut through his BS like a surgeon. He is a formidable opponent.

He has quite a personality and sense of humor, too. I can remember when his reserved demeanor was questioned, but he lets plenty of his personality out. He's a real asset.

[oasis]

40. Schiff always maintains his composure while laying out the facts.

He strives to be impeccable with every presentation.

[Cha]

44. Thank you for this, ehrnst.

I'm certainly in the 18%.

[sheshe2]

45. Thanks for posting the poll, ehrnst.

Wow!

[Spider Jerusalem]

46. Warren supposedly isn't running and doesn't want it

and probably won't let herself be drafted. Which means Biden is looking like the early front-runner, if he goes for it.

[Rhiannon12866]

47. She was on with Jimmy Kimmel Tuesday night and made it clear she's only running for senator

Massachusetts 2018!

[ehrnst]

49. Interesting that she's doing twice as well as the only one on the list

Last edited Thu May 3, 2018, 05:45 PM - Edit history (1)

whose FB pages are saying that they are...the one who came in just behind "undecided."

I'm not surprised that Warren won't run for POTUS. She knows that one can make far more of a difference in actual economic policy in the Senate, despite the glamour and validation that the diplomacy-heavy Oval Office bestows - especially for someone who feels that they have been underrated by their peers. (Dick Nixon, is a less recent example)

And there is that the flaming she got from so many self-described "progressives" that less than 24 hours before claimed that supporting her for POTUS meant they were TOTALLY NOT SEXIST for hating HRC, blasted at her on social media the minute she endorsed HRC for POTUS.

The memory of that whiplash, I'm sure, still lingers.

[Rhiannon12866]

50. Of course that was the first question he asked her, whether she was running for POTUS

Her name keeps coming up, time after time. But she was very clear about it - she's running again for Senate in the fall. And I do agree, she hardly needs the aggravation. She's doing a terrific job right where she is and we really need her voice.

[Rhiannon12866]

56. p.s. Here's the video of Elizabeth Warren's appearance if you're interested:

I was on my phone earlier, meant to pass this on:

Jimmy Kimmel: Guest Senator Elizabeth Warren on Health Care & Minimum Wage
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1017490334

[ehrnst]

60. She has the brains to know where she personally can effect the most change. (nt)

[Rhiannon12866]

61. I agree, she's very good - and we've seen that she won't back down, either.

I've heard the story about her mother before, it gave her a passion - and she's right where she belongs to work on effecting change.

[Me.]

52. Good To KNow

She may not be running but it is a good indicator of where people's heads are and where they are not

[IluvPitties]

63. I'm just happy Gillibrand is at 2%

[StuckInTexas]

64. Kind of pointless until at least after the midterms

I honestly don't think the top 3 in this poll are even going to run, though it's nice to see Gillibrand so low. I hope the shift back to the left continues no matter who gets the nod. I don't know how much longer the vast majority of the country can keep afloat with the right wing fiscal policies of the last 38 years. Anyways, this is all mental masturbation if we don't win the House at the very least. Also, nice to see the usual suspects turn any thread into a refight of the 2016 primary. Get the fuck over it, we're in a fight for our lives (quite literally).