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Tue May 8, 2018, 09:20 PM

Not a good sign for Dems in Ohio primary

Looks like Dewine received just as much votes in the Republican primary than the Democrats combined in their primary. And Taylor received almost as much as the Democratic winner.

Our turnout sucks!!

38 replies, 4097 views

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Arrow 38 replies Author Time Post
Reply Not a good sign for Dems in Ohio primary (Original post)
Proud liberal 80 May 2018 OP
Loki Liesmith May 2018 #1
yardwork May 2018 #2
Hortensis May 2018 #20
CincyDem May 2018 #3
herding cats May 2018 #4
Blue_true May 2018 #12
herding cats May 2018 #14
Blue_true May 2018 #25
herding cats May 2018 #35
Blue_true May 2018 #38
NurseJackie May 2018 #15
herding cats May 2018 #17
NurseJackie May 2018 #18
herding cats May 2018 #37
Blue_true May 2018 #26
Tom Rinaldo May 2018 #22
Ninsianna May 2018 #29
herding cats May 2018 #36
elocs May 2018 #5
blueinredohio May 2018 #6
blue neen May 2018 #7
former9thward May 2018 #31
blue neen May 2018 #33
former9thward May 2018 #34
Hamlette May 2018 #8
octoberlib May 2018 #9
OliverQ May 2018 #11
octoberlib May 2018 #13
LiberalFighter May 2018 #10
NurseJackie May 2018 #16
mythology May 2018 #19
Bantamfancier May 2018 #21
edhopper May 2018 #23
riversedge May 2018 #24
RandySF May 2018 #28
RandySF May 2018 #27
beachbum bob May 2018 #30
farmbo May 2018 #32

Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 09:21 PM

1. Not a strong predictor

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 09:24 PM

2. Kucinich was backed by people who want to depress Democratic turnout.

The effort is designed to depress turnout.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #2)

Wed May 9, 2018, 08:09 AM

20. :) Yes, but this is the primary and at that our turnout

was still higher than Republican, in spite of dissident efforts to demoralize Democrats.

The OP is too harsh. This is the primary, not the general. As is always the case, many Dems are okay with any Democrat. But we can be sure that in November they will be very much not okay with the Republicans. That's the turnout that will tell.

And as for those who backed a weak candidate who ran on a platform of Democratic Party issues but "differentiated" himself by trashing Democrats in general, congratulations for losing. We need to WIN this governorship in November, not fulfill the claim that we always defeat ourselves.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 09:27 PM

3. Maybe...



The Republican race in Ohio was a dogfight between DeWine and the current Lt. Gov Taylor. I don't know the $$$ but I can not remember as many ads for a primary as we've been seeing for the past 3-4 weeks. Relentless is an understatement.

The Dem size was much more of an expect outcome...in spite of news stories trying to make it sound competitive, it's not surprising that Cordray pulled in 70+% of the vote - in spite of it being a percent of a smaller number.

The other thing I would consider is Issue 1, our anti-gerrymandering ballot initiative. It won handily in spite of Republican opposition and I see that as a weakening of republican's stranglehold on the statehouse.

I'm not willing to declare "trouble" AND we have to GOTV.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 09:39 PM

4. Goes to show a hard left candidate didn't inspire the demographics some thought it would.

Kucinich obviously failed to inspire the independent and Right leaning 'economically challenged' like some thought he would.

Now, Dems need to work to GOTV in November. It's time to coalesce around the winner and get to work. DeWine needs to work on a message that resonates with the locals.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #4)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:09 PM

12. DeWine is the republican, Codray is the democrat.

But yes, the message must be crafted for locals, not Washington.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #12)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:20 PM

14. Yes, I know DeWine was the Republican and Cordray the winning Democrat.

I'm not sure why you thought I didn't?

My point was Kucinich, who lost badly in moderate to low turnout, didn't inspire voters to get to the polls like his supporters thought he would. All politics is local, and we need to focus on each region specifically. Focus on their interests, needs and wants. Which more often than not won't mirror our own by and large. This is why a "national" message is a poor strategy in local elections.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #14)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:05 PM

25. Then why did you write "Dewine needs to work on a message that resonates with the locals"?

Sounds like encouragement to DeWine to me, or you made a mistake and meant to put Cordray there.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #25)

Thu May 10, 2018, 01:39 AM

35. I see it now!

It was a brain fart? I was talking to my spouse and typing here and never knew I did that.

Thanks for pointing it out and being so kind about it!

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Response to herding cats (Reply #35)

Thu May 10, 2018, 08:42 AM

38. No problem. All of us are getting old. nt

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Response to herding cats (Reply #4)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:41 PM

15. Thank you!

It needed to be said. Thanks for the dose of truth as an antidote to the pervasive myth.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #15)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:56 PM

17. Tonight this race proved the fact.

Politicians are beholden to the regions they hail from. The person some may want to win because they feel they represent their views means literally nothing if they can't resonate with and inspire the local demographic to vote for them.

All politic is local. There are no unicorns in local politics, either you honestly know your demographic and speak to them specifically, or you lose. This often means concessions and moderation if we want to win in districts not friendly to liberals.

I know that's not popular here, but it's still the reality of winning majorities.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #17)

Wed May 9, 2018, 07:35 AM

18. I guess it really IS TRUE that a Vermont-style politician isn't always the best choice...

... to win STATEWIDE races in places like West Virginia or Ohio.

All politic is local. There are no unicorns in local politics, either you honestly know your demographic and speak to them specifically, or you lose.
Well... it certainly makes sense to me.

This often means concessions and moderation if we want to win in districts not friendly to liberals.
I think we're seeing that axiom being proven true yet again in these primary results.

I know that's not popular here, but it's still the reality of winning majorities.
Well, we told them so. I wonder if anyone is paying attention. Or, will they keep insisting that the follow the same paths that lead nowhere? Will they continue with the same failed strategies as before?

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #18)

Thu May 10, 2018, 01:47 AM

37. Any group who endorses Kucinich isn't legitimate.

That's all I'm going to say here, but really that's all that need be said I think.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #17)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:06 PM

26. Exactly right. nt

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Response to herding cats (Reply #4)

Wed May 9, 2018, 09:18 AM

22. Kucinich is Kucinich. He bombed in the 2004 primaries also

Kucinich won exactly 1% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary that year. I'm glad he lost this primary too but I don't think Kucinich is a good bell weather for all potential "hard left" candidates.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #22)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:29 PM

29. let him be the bellwether of the type that spends their time

attacking Democrats, on Fox. That is not a move that will win over the base.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #22)

Thu May 10, 2018, 01:45 AM

36. When I was young I liked him.

Then I saw him for what he was (it took all of one election cycle for me to see through him) and is now and moved on. I matured and he's still the same.

I'm just extremely happy the voters saw him for what he was and passed him by.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 10:10 PM

5. There had better be a great turn-out by the Left in November

and I don't want to hear any lame-ass excuses. Republicans so often tend to vote like it's their duty while those on the Left need to be motivated and excited to get out and vote.
But if Trump hasn't motivated the Left enough to defeat as many Republicans as possible I don't know what it will ever take.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 10:14 PM

6. In my district it's normally seventy five percent voting republican.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 10:38 PM

7. I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers.

I've been watching the returns on MSNBC. About 20% more of the Republican vote has been tabulated than the Democratic, which would account for a large vote differenential. This was as of 10:30.

Feel free to correct this if wrong.

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Response to blue neen (Reply #7)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:38 PM

31. In the governor's race 827,000 Republicans voted and 679,000 Democrats voted.

A difference of 148,000.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #31)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:45 PM

33. Thank you.

Other sites, like Politico, are showing a difference of about 148,000. Sherrod Brown was running opposed, so that may have affected turnout statewide for Democrats.

See Post #24.

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Response to blue neen (Reply #33)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:53 PM

34. The 679,000 figure for Democrats is correct.

I was using a site which did not have the complete vote for the Democrats. I will correct the earlier post. Thanks.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 10:40 PM

8. primaries can be a horrible indicator.

I have skipped a primary here and there in my life if I didn't care who won. I've never missed a general election.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 10:45 PM

9. Turnout sucked in NC but it's the primaries.

GOP incumbent Pittenger lost the House primary to Trump asshole Mark Harris. This might be better for us. The Dem running against him will be Dan McCready, a veteran and solar energy businessman.

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #9)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:05 PM

11. It is better. Sabato just changed NC-9 from Lean R to a toss-up with that loss.

 

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #11)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:12 PM

13. Great news! We can win this.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:00 PM

10. Glad Kucinich got whopped.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #10)

Tue May 8, 2018, 11:42 PM

16. Same here.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Wed May 9, 2018, 07:59 AM

19. There isn't a correlation between high primary turnout and general election turnout

 

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Wed May 9, 2018, 09:02 AM

21. Really, this isn't the big news.

The real winner was issue 1. Which was approved 75% to 25%.
We voted to provide a more level playing field for future elections.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Wed May 9, 2018, 09:24 AM

23. In a State that votes 50/50

in general elections ad has a Congressional delegation that is 12R - 4D from gerrymandering.
The vote yesterday could mean a 4 seat pick up for the Dems even without the anti-Trump Blue Wave coming

Good news.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Wed May 9, 2018, 09:36 AM

24. DEMS: 679,738 votes, 100% reporting; @gop 827,039 votes, 100% reporting TOTAL VOTES...



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/08/us/elections/results-ohio-primary-elections.html


..................Ohio is one of the archetypal swing states in presidential elections, but Republicans have dominated state politics for three decades and held the office of governor for 24 of the last 28 years.


For Democrats, the primary has been seen as a proxy battle between two liberal titans: Senator Bernie Sanders, whose allies supported Dennis Kucinich, a former congressman, and Senator Elizabeth Warren, who endorsed Richard Cordray, a former state attorney general...........................

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/08/us/elections/results-ohio-primary-elections.html

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Response to riversedge (Reply #24)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:17 PM

28. The truth on the ground in Ohio

Is that Cordray had it wrapped up weeks ago.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:16 PM

27. Not a predictor

DeWine and Taylor spent weeks beating the shit out of each other while Cordray coasted.

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:32 PM

30. Primaries usually suck...we do need to mobilize in Ohio

 

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Original post)

Wed May 9, 2018, 12:43 PM

32. OK PL 80... time to re-set your OP headline

DeWine did NOT receive more votes than the democratic field... not even close.
And Mary Taylor did not draw more votes than Cordray... not even close.

Plus, both DeWine and Taylor spent 3x more than All Dems combined on truly nasty attack ads against their Republican opponents. They may both be damaged goods.

Final tally:
Cordray drew 423,264 votes (62%) in a field of six
DeWine drew 494,766 votes(59.8%) in a field of two
Taylor drew 330,783 ((40.2) against DeWine

Sorry, the sky is not falling here in Ohio.

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