Coal Collapsing Faster Under Trump; Wind, Solar, Gas All Benefit

[RandySF]

More coal plants are now projected to retire more quickly than experts thought a year ago, according to energy-industry analysts who gathered in Chicago Tuesday.

Three alternative energy sources—wind, solar and natural gas—are expected to divide up the spoils, they said at the American Wind Energy Association's Windpower 2018 conference.

“The real story I believe is in coal retirements," said Bruce Hamilton, a director in the energy practice at Navigant, which has modeled every coal plant in the U.S. and projected 73 gigawatts will retire in the next 10 years.

"That’s more than twice what we projected last year at this time. It’s more than we had two years ago when the Clean Power Plan was in the assumptions."

The projection changed in part because of more announced retirements, Hamilton said, "but more importantly, the fundamentals of the economics of coal have gotten worse, with costs going up, while the competition for coal—that is, gas, wind and solar—has all gotten cheaper. So it’s getting to the point where huge swings are forecast. You can see it will be throughout the decade."


Navigant's projection is more conservative than some:

"Our outlook includes about 100 Gigawatts of coal retirements," said Max Cohen, an IHS Markit analyst. "That’s about a third of the fleet."



https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/05/09/coal-collapsing-faster-under-trump-wind-solar-gas-to-benefit/#6f961aa45ee4

[BlueDog22]

1. Enviroment

Well that's better for the environment in the long term.

[cynatnite]

2. But...but...Obama is the coal killer and all that.

[Hekate]

3. Awww, and people said Hillary was so mean to coal miners when she said their jobs were going...

...and they didn't bother to show what she said about her policies and plans for training in 21st century jobs.

What a nasty dismissive woman.

[mcar]

8. She spoke the truth

and offered plans to help. People seemed to think that was a bad thing.

[Hekate]

11. My point exactly. Pissed me off no end how her statements were misrepresented. nt

[Hortensis]

13. Yes. Richard Ojeda just won the Democratic primary

in WV's 3rd district. A very interesting guy. He campaigned as loving coal and at the same time that it had to be environmentally viable or a no-go (my words). Definitely teetering along a line. He also voted for Trump in 2016, as did most Dems in his district, and deplores Trump now, but he still lies about what Hillary planned to do for WV's coal country, presumably to "justify" voting against Democrats. Like so man other Demswho did, though. His win seems to indicate a change of mood there, like the teachers' strike, so good. He wants to bring prosperity to WV with vast fields of beautiful green pot.

[maddiemom]

23. I agree completely.

Provided Hillary had followed through with her campaign program, the coal producing regions would have been far better off. I have lived in the coal mining regions of PA, W.VA., and Kentucky and knew some great people (and had family) who were coal miners. They certainly aren't any dumber than anywhere else in the country. Votes for Trump, however, fall under the George Carlin observation, "Think how stupid the average person is..." Were Trump's voters familiar with his background aside from "The Apprentice" ?

[Hekate]

24. Trump packaged and sold himself as a brilliant businessman, very decisive, etc, etc. Looking back...

..it sure looks like The Apprentice was no more than another marketing program for his monstrous ego, and a certain portion of the population swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.

I read a column recently about Midwestern soybean farmers. The author went out to talk about conditions with them, and began with Trump's Russia and porn star troubles, about which they were vague and really didn't see what that had to do with anything they cared about. As soon as he brought up soybeans though, they were sharp as a tack and displayed an excellent command of international trade policy as it affected them.

But I was left with the question of whether they would ever (or at least in time) connect the dots from their coming crash to the man they voted for, thinking he was a brilliant businessman. Same with all the rest of the citizens who are going to be savaged by Trump and the GOP -- will they figure it out in time?

[Blue_true]

4. When in doubt, follow the money.

Regardless of what a new power plant run on, the initial installation costs are high for them all, but during operation, coal gets pounded on costs, the others are much cheaper to use all around.

[Beartracks]

5. Wow, one might conclude Trump just talked out of his ass during the 2016 campaign!

And one would be correct.

============

[Blue_true]

6. The people in WVA will still blame President Obama.

They are invested in the war on coal whine. They won't admit that it all boils down to dollars and cents.

Key factors that I see are:

Transport: coal loses big to NG.
Storage: NG required much less space per MWH.
Maintenance costs: NG is much cleaner, less cleaning during maintenance. Wind and solar are off the page cheaper.
Abatement: coal losses mega-big to all competitors, including fuel oil.

At the end, it boils down to how much profit plant operators can make on each MWH.

[Hekate]

7. There's only so much you can do to stop technological progress, especially when there's money...

...to be made, and your competition is dying (quite literally). Trump has not managed to turn us into a 3rd world nation, yet, despite the help of that idiot Betsy deVos in wrecking public education.

Trump and enablers are a very destructive force in America, but in the long run may be oddly irrelevant to the progress of the planet. Other countries appear to be sticking by the Paris Climate Accords, other countries want to continue the Iran Nuke Treaty, other countries would like to have the TPP, and so on through the litany of America-led/Obama-led initiatives.

Sadly for the US, Trump is rendering our word and our pledge worthless. It will be harder to gain cooperation, but not impossible. What will be impossible to gain is respect.

[Takket]

9. promises made, promises kept

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Consider what cost HRC any chance in WV. She saw this and was espousing alternate . . . .

. . . . economics to help those she kew were inevitably going to be thrown out of work.

But nope, they had no vision and went with Mr. Bring Back Coal Jobs.

How's that workin' for ya, dumbfucks?

[theCHARLOTTEan]

12. Give the coal miners a Randie Andie lesson in economics

If coal is too expensive, then let us legislate subminium wage and no social security contribution employment for West VIrginia for those jobs. That should bring corporate
types flocking to H1B applications for miners.

[IronLionZion]

14. Why is Hillary killing off these American jobs?

[Crowman2009]

15. I wish some coal would collapse on Don "the murderer" Blankenship!

Along with that Bob whatever the fuck his name is.

[Omaha Steve]

16. K&R!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. A coal plant is hardly "fleet". I've never seen one move faster than a millimeter a year. . . . nt

[Sophia4]

18. Coal is going the way of the horse and buggy, and Appalachia needs to understand

that.

My grandfather adored horses.

But when horses were no longer all that useful for farm-work, he had to switch to tractors and other such equipment.

That's how the cookie crumbles as we used to say.

Appalachia needs to understand that Democrats will best help their region adjust to the new reality that the future holds for them.

Coal is over. Horses are now for sport and enjoyment, and there aren't as many of them. It's called progress. It can be very painful, but those who try to avoid it end up living forever in the past. We have to accept progress or be doomed to utter backwardness and the poverty it causes.

[Scurrilous]

19. K&R

[rplcmint67]

20. Coal was a sham that didn't work out...

Like Putin, the best business deals for Filthy Don are those that provide kick backs.......

"Yep, Capitalism can be controlled and swindled."

[Xolodno]

21. Sooner or later...

...the economics beats you.

[NNadir]

22. It's always fun when the gas disaster is presented along with its window dressing.

Dangerous natural gas - a fossil fuel which is as unsustainable as coal - is always presented along with the useless and incredibly expensive and equally unsustainable so called "renewable energy."

The so called "renewable energy" scam is an expensive failure. It has not worked; it is not working; and it won't work to prevent climate change. It, like gas, is a toxicological nightmare and it is not even remotely sustainable.

As of 2016, the world was using 587 exajoules (EJ) of energy.

Solar and wind were producing 9.4 of them.

Coal was producing 157 of them, up from 97 in 2000.

Oil was producing 183 EJ, up from 154 EJ.

IEA 2017 World Energy Outlook, Table 2.2 page 79 (I have converted MTOE in the original table to the SI unit exajoules in this text.)

The reason that we just set another record for increases in dangerous fossil fuel waste's concentration in the planetary atmosphere is because we, both left and right, continue to lie to ourselves. We think we "defeated" coal, despite the fact in this century, it was the fastest growing source of energy on the planet. The reason that Americans think so is because they have provincial myopia and don't care a wit what is happening to poor people living in the most impoverished people in the world.

The only sustainable form of energy on this planet, and ironically the one stalled at 28 exajoules per year is nuclear energy.

But left and right, we hate science and scientists, including the greatest minds of the 20th century who invented nuclear energy.

Every time I read oblivious crap like this, I really want to weep for all future generations who will need to clean up our mess and have very limited resources to do so.

History will not forgive us, nor should it.