Cook Political Report:

[Dawson Leery]

When should be start paying attention to the generic ballot?

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/when-should-we-start-paying-attention-congressional-generic-ballot

As of late, the Conman's approval has risen and the Democrat's advantage is down to 6%.

This could just be people tuning out for the Summer, or something else.

[BootinUp]

1. More people getting high/ wasted? Nt

[still_one]

2. The choices were clear in 2016. 2018 and 2020 will have the same clarity, but there will be no

excuse this time that they don't know who trump is, or the positions of the republican party on women's rights, worker's rights, civil rights, the environment, Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, healthcare, etc. etc. etc.

[jcgoldie]

3. he's being normalized

The lying, the philandering, the narcissism, the ignorance, the racism, the misogyny ... its the new presidential normal.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. There has been no significant change in the generic ballot for months

[former9thward]

7. Except there has been.

In December it was a D advantage of 13% and now it is 5%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[Dawson Leery]

8. 538 has it at 7 points as they make adjustments to the polls.

I also noticed that as the D's numbers fall, the undecideds go up.

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Use a 3 week averaging window and then get back to me

Link to tweet

?s=21

[former9thward]

14. You said months.

I showed my evidence, your tweets had none, just gave opinions without showing any facts.

[Dawson Leery]

5. kick

[brooklynite]

6. My standard comment is: "Generic Democrat never wins the Primary".

[blue neen]

10. Um, this article is from November 2, 2017.

.

[lamp_shade]

11. Aha. You're right.

[grantcart]

12. Three points

1) We aren't running generic candidates. Two weeks ago the Democrats lost one of the reddest districts in the country which we had lost by 21% and barely lost by 4%.

Our candidate was a naturalized American with no previous political experience in an election that is supposed to be all about tribe and immigration.

We aren't running candidates, we are running great candidates.

2) Republican primaries. The Republican primary is pulling their candidates far to the right. In the race for Flakes seat the Republican's best candidate, McSally, had to abandon support of the Dreamers. She could lose to either one of the nutters running against her. We have a good candidate. Should McCain's seat open it is possible Mark Kelly could run.

In the by elections so far you can see we have great candidates. We have many great candidates including great women candidates running.

3) Generic ballots and job approval polls have one major flaw, they don't measure depth. Two rivers might be seen to be covered with ice. One sheet is an inch deep and the other 3 feet deep but they each count as one river covered by ice. Our river is 3 feet deep and theirs is one inch.

[Dawson Leery]

15. #3. The "depth" of the left river is the question.

We will see how today's election in PA goes.
We have both primary and special elections, the latter are to fill seats vacated by the Fascist Party.
If we win them, our momentum is clearly on the move still.

[grantcart]

16. Of all of the questions about this year's election the "depth" of the Democratic party

is the least questionable.

Depth reflects enthusiasm and Democrats have been out performing past turnout in every election so far.

NYT runs special election coverage with each election and one of the features is an arrow over every single county either blue or red to show which way the voting trend is going. There have been literally thousands of blue arrows and a dozen red arrows in all the maps in al the various states.

In my district in Arizona the Democrats in my district have formed their own PAC outside of the party to turn our district from red to blue (it was Gifford's seat and is basically split evenly).

They recently had a forum for 6 out of the 7 candidates running and hundreds showed up

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210576713

The Republicans are so afraid of demonstrators showing up and having to answer questions about the Affordable Care Act and the Dreamers that they have to hold their candidates forum at a secret location with no press coverage and get a couple of dozen people coming.

[DFW]

13. I wonder if Charlie would say the same thing now?

Or, more to the point, in 5 months?