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Sat May 19, 2018, 06:45 AM

Irish Abortion Referendum : six days to go, and as dirty as I predicted.

I have largely tried to avoid the incessant debates and ads, because I was always going to vote Yes to Repeal the 8th Amendment to the Irish Constitution, and I just knew I'd end up with blood pressure from the constant lies and dirt from the Pro-Life crowd.

The numbers were always going to narrow once the Anti-Abortionists were in full flow with their lies and deceptions, but with a week to go there is still a 58-42 lead in the Irish Times poll of a couple of days ago. It will be a close run thing.

https://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.3497939.1526501307!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_620_330/image.jpg

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-repeal-has-large-but-reduced-lead-1.3497830

The Yes side retains a clear advantage in the abortion referendum campaign, but its lead has reduced sharply in the last month, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll has found.

Asked how they will vote in the referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment, 44 per cent of voters now say they will vote in favour of the proposal, a decline of three points since the last poll in late April.

The No vote is at 32 per cent, an increase of four points, while 17 per cent are undecided (a decline of three points). Seven per cent said they will not vote or refused to say.

https://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.3498719!/image/image.png_gen/derivatives/landscape_620/image.png

Once the undecideds and those who will not vote are excluded, the Yes side leads by 58 per cent to 42 per cent, with just over a week to go before polling day.

While this shows a decline of 10 points in the Yes lead since late April, those in favour of repeal still command a 16-point lead as the campaign enters its final, decisive stage.

A tightening of the race was expected by all sides as polling day approaches, and pollsters say that process is likely to continue in the days ahead. But while the Yes side lead has been cut, the No side requires a dramatic acceleration of that process if it is to secure a majority on May 25th.




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Some of the sicker posters are




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Reply Irish Abortion Referendum : six days to go, and as dirty as I predicted. (Original post)
OnDoutside May 2018 OP
TimeSnowDemos May 2018 #1
OnDoutside May 2018 #2
TimeSnowDemos May 2018 #7
OnDoutside May 2018 #9
Maeve May 2018 #3
OnDoutside May 2018 #5
smirkymonkey May 2018 #4
OnDoutside May 2018 #6
StevieM May 2018 #12
OnDoutside May 2018 #17
smirkymonkey May 2018 #14
OnDoutside May 2018 #18
TimeSnowDemos May 2018 #8
OnDoutside May 2018 #10
TimeSnowDemos May 2018 #13
OnDoutside May 2018 #16
smirkymonkey May 2018 #15
OnDoutside May 2018 #11

Response to OnDoutside (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 06:49 AM

1. I repeat myself but...

 

I honestly think the OTT nature of the No campaign is backfiring. As you know this way beyond what the Irish are used too in any campaign and the backlash is palpable.

It's going to be close, but... Yes should win by 3-5 points. That's my feeling anyway.

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Response to TimeSnowDemos (Reply #1)

Sat May 19, 2018, 07:07 AM

2. I think you may well be correct, though it would be wonderful to see a higher margin and put this

issue to bed. I had Yes campaigners at my door 2 nights ago, and I was conscious of the fact they had a lot of knocking on doors to do, so I actually cut them short and said for them not to waste time, as there were 2 Yes votes in our house. I'm sorry now because I wanted to ask them how the campaigning was going for them !

When collecting my kid from school, he has had a habit of reading out aloud all the posters on telephone poles, so I then have to explain what is being said and what are the lies/untruths from the truth. The stuff on the tv/radio is often times worse, as it's difficult for the Yes debaters to have a reasoned argument when their counterpart is spouting lies and then shouting down the Yes person when they're caught out.

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Response to OnDoutside (Reply #2)

Sat May 19, 2018, 08:36 AM

7. I feel this

 

Both my in-laws are "No" - they're OAPs and into the CC. My daughter came home and told us to vote no, "so the hospitals can't kill the babies".

Here in Rathfarnham I see a LOT of Yes people outside Tesco... no one has come to our door yet.

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Response to TimeSnowDemos (Reply #7)

Sat May 19, 2018, 08:46 AM

9. Yes, it's incredibly disturbing what they are doing. As in the US, it's the cities that will swing

this to a Yes, and Dublin of all. The weather looks reasonably good for Friday, so I think that's good for the Yes vote.

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Response to OnDoutside (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 07:24 AM

3. Thank you for posting this

I've been trying to follow the story as best I can and hope Ireland will continue to move forward on this.

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Response to Maeve (Reply #3)

Sat May 19, 2018, 07:56 AM

5. No probs. I'm hoping that the Marriage Equality referendum awakened people to the truth that

their votes can make a difference. Of course it has been the task of the Anti side to demonise the Pro Choice argument, and it is such a fundamental issue of Catholic Church control that they were always going to fight harder and even dirtier than last time.

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Response to OnDoutside (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 07:27 AM

4. I really hope it passes. It's about time that Ireland steps into the 21st century.

Do you feel that younger people in Ireland are rejecting the Catholic Church? Is this anti-campaign mostly led by older citizens?

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Response to smirkymonkey (Reply #4)

Sat May 19, 2018, 08:29 AM

6. Social issue wise, Ireland started the process in 1995 with the passing of the Divorce Referendum.

You could say that the last implementation of the 19th century was the 8th Amendment Referendum in 1983. Since then we had the Church scandals of Bishop Eamon Casey, Father Michael Cleary, followed by the Child Sex abuse, Magdalene Laundry and Mother & Baby Home scandals, each of which has hit the Catholic Church hard. As bad as they were, the uncovering of the coverups, and refusal of the Church to accept a true and just financial atonement for what they did...and they are still not accepting. The fall off in Church attendance is directly related to them not facing up to their crimes.

Yes the young people in general have moved on from the Catholic Church, and use them mostly as reference points i.e. the Catholic Church still control 90% of primary schools in the state (5-13 years of age), so there has to be engagement with them for Communion/Confirmation, but they mostly pay lip service to them. That spell of control has been broken in all but the really rural areas. In some ways it's a pity that it came to this, because in small towns/villages where everyone knows each other, the focal points are the local Church, school and GAA club. It's a real community effort. I live in a city but my son goes to what is essentially a country school 10 miles away, where the school is next to the GAA club and across the road from the Church, with the pub a little further beyond. It has been a wonderful experience for him, and I can see the huge benefit in the entire community working together, having lived in cities all my life.

However, if I do go to Mass, the vast majority will be people over 55, followed by young kids (who would have no choice but to go) and a small percentage of those in between.

No, the Anti-campaign has a lot of young, university educated zealots as the public face. I liken them to stormtroopers. They are articulate and I would imagine have spent years on debating teams because their tactics are well honed. Even when they don't have a valid argument or have been caught lying, they usually will turn the debate into a shitfest, which then turns people off listening. One of the most active groups of young Antis is Youth Defence, the well funded (thanks to a lot of American money), Hitler Youth wing of the Catholic Church. I'd say a fair few of them like to give themselves a good ould flailing in private . They'd have a lot of 55 years old plus, Holy Joes and Josephines going door to door, those who'd know the parish very well. Another is "The Iona Institute", which isn't big but manage to have inserted themselves as the other side in a lot of debates over the years. They're older people, and work in the same way Tobacco companies have these "independent think-tanks".

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Response to OnDoutside (Reply #6)

Sat May 19, 2018, 09:06 AM

12. Is the post-1979 generation much more liberal in Ireland?

Here in the U.S. it seems like people who turned 21 after 2000 are much more liberal than the general population. Part of that is increasing racial diversity but it holds true for white voters as well.

I am wondering how Irish men and women in their teens, 20s and 30s compare to people in their 40s and older. In other words, is there a political sea change coming that is baked into the cake and unavoidable at this point?

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Response to StevieM (Reply #12)

Sat May 19, 2018, 10:17 AM

17. I wasn't even a teenager back in 1979, which was the last great hurrah

when Pope John Paul visited Ireland. At the main event in Dublin, there was an attendance of one million people - nearly a quarter of the population at the time. After that you had all the scandals, but also huge emigration in the 80s of young people, who were educated to a much higher standard than those who were forced to emigrate in the 50s and 60s.

A lot of them came back when the economy improved in the 90s, with more liberal attitudes and an unwillingness to accept the old conservative views. The church still fights a rearguard action but there has been huge change over the last 25 years. For example, if an unmarried school teacher got pregnant, she risked being sacked, but a school board would have some neck to try that now.

There's no doubt young people are far more liberal but in general people of my own age of 40/50s would be pretty liberal too. We are a European country and do have a liberal outlook in terms of social justice. We still have a road to travel but it is getting there, and that is unstoppable, even if there is the odd hiccup along the way.

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Response to OnDoutside (Reply #6)

Sat May 19, 2018, 09:47 AM

14. Interesting. Thank you for explaining that. Seems like Ireland has it's

version of "Young Republicans" as well. As it is in most places, it seems as though there is the usual urban/rural divide.

I suppose there is no chance of replacing church run schools with secular schools any time soon, but I think that would be something to strive for. However, I have known a lot of native Irish who have moved to this country and one thing I can say is that they all seemed to be extremely well educated. Much more so than the average American.

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Response to smirkymonkey (Reply #14)

Sat May 19, 2018, 10:46 AM

18. Actually, they're like the fundamentalist Evangelicals with no political party

for the most part (there is a tiny crowd called Renua, former Fianna Fail/Fine Gael pro lifers). Almost all the parties in parliament are supporting a Yes vote, which is a contradiction when 40 odd percent will vote No. I hope there's no long term impact to that.

I have no doubt that schools will become more secular over time. The biggest problem is in the small percentage where you have too many wanting to go to particular schools. The Catholic Church are obstructing under the cover of being willing to change. Currently, preparation for communion and confirmations takes place throughout those particular years in religion class in primary school, so it's something they will want to hang on to obviously.

The standard of education is pretty good, which was why those who emigrated in the 80s onwards had a better chance of making it.

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Response to smirkymonkey (Reply #4)

Sat May 19, 2018, 08:37 AM

8. Yes

 

but the school are almost all still connected to the church.. so... you know... it's a process.

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Response to TimeSnowDemos (Reply #8)

Sat May 19, 2018, 08:47 AM

10. Yes, and they prioritise entry to those who have been baptised, where there are too many applying

for entry in to a particular school.

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Response to OnDoutside (Reply #10)

Sat May 19, 2018, 09:41 AM

13. Our kids are baptized

 

for this very reason

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Response to TimeSnowDemos (Reply #13)

Sat May 19, 2018, 09:53 AM

16. I completely understand.

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Response to TimeSnowDemos (Reply #8)

Sat May 19, 2018, 09:49 AM

15. A liberal, secular education seems to be the key to a better world no matter

where you are. However, I know that change will only occur very slowly.

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Response to OnDoutside (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 08:52 AM

11. 900 paid-for ads relating to Eighth Amendment captured

Researchers say ‘no way of knowing’ how much is being spent on online ads ahead of referendum

Nearly 900 paid-for advertisements relating to the referendum on the Eighth Amendment, including some paid for by overseas groups, have been captured by transparency researchers in the run-up to the vote on May 25th.

Ads from both sides of the campaign are still appearing online, despite Facebook’s announcement earlier this month of a ban on foreign-funded ads relating to the abortion referendum.

Google followed within days with a total ban on ads related to the referendum.

The Transparent Referendum Initiative (TRI), a voluntary initiative established to enable “open, truthful, respectful” debate during the campaign, found 230 new ads served on Facebook last week and said the number of ads was increasing.


SNIP

The researchers said some groups were untraceable and that the location, identity or intent of the person paying was not known. There were also overseas organisations paying for ads targeting Irish voters.



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/900-paid-for-ads-relating-to-eighth-amendment-captured-1.3500743

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