The Comical Notion That Pardoning Manafort Will "Require Him To Testify" or "Face State Charges"

[jberryhill]

If Manafort is pardoned, he is going to do one thing, and one thing only.

He will get picked up from the lock-up, he will get into a car, he will be taken to the airport, he will get on a private plane, and that plane is going direct to Russia.

From there, he will move in to his new digs on the Black Sea.

And that will be the end of that.

All this nonsense about "he'll have to testify" or "he can be indicted by a state" just cracks me up.

Do you think for ONE RED HOT SECOND that he's going to stick around for any of that?

Trump will spring him, and he will get out of the US.

Do you see Edward Snowden being "forced to testify" about anything in a US court?

Do you see Roman Polanski getting hauled back to California to face state charges?

Manafort has lived and worked abroad for years. There's nothing keeping him nailed down in this country. If you think he's going to get pardoned, walk out, and then stick around in the US to see what happens next, then dream on.

If he gets a pardon, he's leaving the country, and he's not coming back for any other legal proceedings whatsoever.

[Gothmog]

1. NY AG would move first

[jberryhill]

4. Can't move that quick, though

He can get from the DC lockup to National Airport faster than a warrant can get from NY to VA.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. I believe he's had to give up his passport.

So he'd have to have a minion or a Russian make a fake one for him.

[jberryhill]

18. Why?

Why would he need a passport to go to Russia as Putin’s guest?

A little booklet of paper isn’t going to physically prevent him from getting onto a private plane in the US, landing in Russia, and walking off that plane if Russia takes him in.

It’s amazing the magical powers people ascribe to passports. Yeah, if you’re Joe Blow coming in on United, you need one to get your stamped visa and get in. No, if you have an invite from Putin for political asylum, it’s not like there’s some clerk at the airport who is going to not let you in.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

19. In that case, probably not.

I wasn't thinking of it in terms of political asylum. And I think Putin is more likely to have him whacked than offer him a new home.

[jberryhill]

20. Putin has gotten a huge payback

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

21. True. But he doesn't need Manafort any more.

[Phoenix61]

27. You do t need a passport to get out of the US

You need one to get back in. If Manafort bolts he won't ever come back.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

29. I still think the Russians would be more likely to whack him than welcome him.

[Phoenix61]

36. Probably. He won't be of any use to them

He'll just be a loose end that needs to be snipped.

[grantcart]

2. and Mueller doesn't have a Material Witness Warrant ready before he exits jail?

[lark]

3. People are just looking for any reason at all to hope for orange assface's conviction.

So, they hope that there's still a chance to get the truth even if he's pardonned. I think you have the sadder but way more realistic take.

[exboyfil]

5. Could they have a state indictment ready to go?

Would a judge hold him in jail until the appeal of the preemptive pardon is heard? Does anyone have standing to appeal a preemptive pardon (Mueller)?

I think you are right that the most likely outcome is him kicking back in Russia. Then it would be incumbent upon us to make the linkages to the voters (assuming Congress doesn't do anything). You would think Pence would be damaged goods given how he was selected by Manafort, but probably not given how far we have fallen.

[Lee-Lee]

43. There is no such thing as an appeal of a Presidential pardon

[hlthe2b]

6. There seem to be a near endless list of charges that Manafort COULD be charged with beyond those

already brought. It is at least conceivable that one or more states have charges prepped for that eventuality. Double jeopardy can't attach (to the extent that it DOES apply) if not charged on the specific offense in Federal court, so if Mueller is being judicious in those charges he brings and leaving some in reserve, this is at least a possibility. it has been reported that Mueller was coordinating with Schneiderman before his dismissal. If so, the Acting AG may well have progressed on those plans.

NY is not the only jurisdiction that may be similarly preparing charges. Those states like NY, NJ, CT that have much experience prosecuting organized crime, have considerable experience and capabilities in producing indictments under seal. Those can be acted upon fairly quickly.

So, I'm not so sure he's going to make it on that plane to whichever "NO EXTRADITION" paradise he may have picked out. Not to mention the reported very real risks to his life from those oligarchs to whom he owes big $$$.

[PJMcK]

10. New York has a strange double jeopardy loophole

If Federal charges are brought against a defendant and they are acquitted at trial, New York State law does not allow the defendant to be tried again on similar State charges. It's something that NYS Attorney General Barbara Underwood has been urging the State Legislature to address before their summer recess.

Here's an article about this:

https://reason.com/blog/2018/06/01/ny-attorney-general-close-the-double-jeo

[hlthe2b]

11. Yes... In fact I posted on the bill's status today... But, that does not mean

NY can not ALREADY have sealed indictments for charges that Mueller has NOT yet brought and which have jurisdiction in NY courts. As mentioned, if Mueller was coordinating with Schneiderman prior to his dismissal and the current acting AG now to prepare charges for sealed indictments, double jeopardy doesn't even come into play.

That said, here's my post on the status of NY State Assembly A10422 and Senate Bill #8236 (the double jeopardy bills... Unfortunately, it is unlikely they will be acted upon by June 20, when the current session ends. https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210738355

[KitSileya]

46. But wouldn't "acquitted at trial" be the magic words here?

A presidential pardon would have to happen before trial to have any value for Doofus.

[PJMcK]

8. I've wondered about this

Thanks for the perspective, jberryhill. I've heard the prosecutors refer to flight risk on several occasions and I was curious how Manafort could pull that off.

Let me ask you a question, though. If you were Robert Mueller, is there a backstop you could prepare to prevent his possible pardon from allowing him to escape from the country? How could that work?

[hlthe2b]

14. Someone could/might leak to Oleg Deripaska his pending "travel opportunity"

... I'm guessing that would complicate his plans to flee considerably...


To assume Manafort would be "safe" overseas--even in a country with no extradition to US would seem to be overlooking his very serious enemies:
e.g.,
Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska sues Manafort and Gates in N.Y.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/russian-oligarch-oleg-deripaska-sues-manafort-gates-ny-n836586


But, I have some faith that Mueller has planned ahead (accordingly) and no, I do not believe he is powerless in this scenario.

[grantcart]

30. It's called a Material Witness Warrant. Mueller could hold him even of he gets a pardon

And has no charges pending.

[shanny]

9. You keep saying this. You keep overlooking this:

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/11/577323314/paul-manafort-sued-by-russian-oligarchs-company-over-business-deal

BUT they're reasonable men so I'm sure they will just overlook it.

Weren't you saying he would be outta here when they let him out on bail?

[jberryhill]

17. No, I don't recall saying that

He had ankle monitors while out on bail.

I remember expressing some snark when, I believe it was Gates, wanted his area of travel broadened so he could take his kids on a historical tour of Boston.

I dunno. Maybe I suggested some other scenario at the time. Find me a link.

[shanny]

24. Looked, but can't find a link.

Doesn't matter; it is a side issue.

My point is, whatever extralegal possibilities there are for Manafort to escape our justice system, I doubt if he will test what kind of reception he will receive in Russia.

otoh, he's pretty stupid, as his alleged attempted witness tampering attests.

[jberryhill]

39. He is a Russian hero

[shanny]

40. Link?

[jberryhill]

41. Are you joking?

Manafort has been working for the Russians for years. He was wildly successful on their behalf and helped to deliver the Trump presidency. You do understand what he’s been charged with, correct? The entire POINT of him being an unregistered foreign agent, and for lying about it, has been to advance Russian interests.

Like Snowden and Assange, he has been of great service to Russia

[shanny]

45. Naive IMO.

Manafort may have helped deliver tRump, but tRump hasn't delivered what the oligarchs wanted most: relief from sanctions. The oligarchs are like him: their own personal benefit is what is important.

For someone with a safe haven and hero's welcome awaiting him, Manafort has been going to great and stupid lengths to beat the rap here.

We'll see. Maybe.

[madville]

12. Did Manafort even live and work in NY?

I thought he was a DC creature that lived in Virginia mostly?

What exactly would NY be able to charge him with is what I'm curious about. Everything I've seen him charged with was from years before the campaign so if he lived and worked in NY during his short campaign gig what are they alleging he did to break state law during that time?

[hlthe2b]

13. Sure. He owned an apartment/condo in Trump Towers, in fact.

I think he may have just forfeited it, in fact, with his bail forfeiture.

[madville]

16. I searched a little

The last things I see are speculation that his property corporation may have committed a misdemeanor by illegally renting a condo on AirBnB. They usually levy some hefty fines for that, his daughter got hit with it as well according to reports.

[Sanity Claws]

26. He had a townhouse in Brooklyn

The Carroll Gardens section of Brooklyn

[hlthe2b]

32. Here's NPR discussion of NY properties...

In the story, "Paul Manafort's Puzzling New York Real Estate Purchases," we investigated a condo purchased in Trump Tower, another one in SoHo and a brownstone in Carroll Gardens, Brooklyn.

At the time, we said, "Manafort's New York City transactions follow a pattern: Using shell companies, he purchased the homes in all-cash deals, then transferred the properties into his own name for no money and then took out hefty mortgages against them, according to property records."

https://www.npr.org/2017/11/01/561330641/what-manaforts-indictment-reveals-his-new-york-city-real-estate-deals

[jberryhill]

15. He has a place in the Hamptons

[leftynyc]

23. Also a condos at trump tower

I think it's the entire floor.

[PSPS]

22. You're spot on and the judge in today's revocation of bond came to the same conclusion

After she remanded Manafort, his attorneys requested a stay of the remanding so they could appeal. She denied their request because, "now that I've issued this order, the risk of flight has just multiplied substantially."

They probably had a plane warmed up and ready to take off before he even entered court today.

[jberryhill]

28. Holy shit

One can always ask, I suppose.

[PSPS]

38. If you have a Pacer subscription, the transcript is really something to read.

[canetoad]

44. Rachel Maddow show yesterday

She read out most of the Judge's comments.

[Demsrule86]

25. I don't think Trump will spring him. There are probably state banking charges that could be filed.

[Cosmocat]

31. I'm actually surprised

He didn't do this earlier.

[MineralMan]

33. You are almost certainly correct.

However, once he is out of the country, he may not survive long. He knows things that are inconvenient.

[brooklynite]

34. You mean like Flynn, Gates, Cohen and Papadopoulos have all fled the Country?

If you're going to come up with conspiracy theories, don't make them lazy ones?

[kentuck]

35. He'll probably fly out on AF1...

After all, they have known each other since the 1980's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. The optics for Trump would be awful.

Maybe he wouldn't care but it would be crushing for his party. Nobody but his most rabid fans would countenance it and there aren't enough of them to save the Republicans from electoral disaster.

[onenote]

42. I think in the real world its unlikely he'd flee to Russia.