Tomorrow I'm speaking at a political conference on identifying House candidates to support...

[brooklynite]

I'm known for assembling a very detailed database of competitive races, and ranking them by competitive ratings, prior Democratic success, fundraising, endorsements, battleground State location and up- and down-ticket cohesion.

Here are the top 10 I'll be discussing:

Jason Crow (CO-6)
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26)
Conor Lamb (PA-7)
Abby Finkenauer (IA-1)
Scott Wallace (PA-1)
Susan Wild (PA-7)
Abigail Spanberger (VA-7)
Jennifer Wexton (VA-1)
Aftab Pureval (OH-1)
Gina Ortiz-Jones (TX-23)

[redwitch]

1. I know people don't think the NY21st is competitive but...

Tedra Cobb put together the most amazing ground game I have seen in a long time. And Elise Stefanik needs to go before she is so entrenched we’ll never get rid of her!

[brooklynite]

2. Low on my list for three main reasons...

Cook, Sabato and Gonzales all rate this as LIKELY R.

New York is not a battleground State that needs incumbents to turn out votes for a future Presidential campaign

No significant up- or down-ticket races.

NY-19 is much more likely, and could potentially help candidates trying to flip the State Senate.

[redwitch]

3. Yeah, I know all that but still have hope.

The 19th is very doable. Faso is such a smooth talking creep!

[TreasonousBastard]

16. I suppose you have similar reasons for NY1, but...

Perry Gershon needs all the help he can get against Zeldin. Personally, not my first choice, but he's the guy now.

Very low turnout in the Dem primary kinda scares me. The Bernie wing of the local party is worked up, but most everyone else is asleep.

[underpants]

4. I've met Abigail twice

At an in house meetup and at a campaign office opening. Very very impressive.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

5. What do you think of Jared Golden in ME-2? n/t

[brooklynite]

9. Second tier...

LEAN R ratings, Clinton didn't do well there, Red-to-Blue candidate, complementary races for Senate and Gov, good fundraising. Big problem is that he burned a lot of cash in the Primary. We'll see what the 2Q financial report looks like.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

13. 2nd district had a Democrat rep before Poliquin

Michaud. LePage outted Michaud as gay when he ran against him for gov. Basically, why he didn't win. He'd probably still be our rep if he hadn't stepped down to run for gov. Michaud was re-elected 6 times as U.S. Rep. The guy before him, Baldacci, was also a dem. Poliquin is the first Republican in the seat in a long time. He has won twice and both times against the same dem woman, Emily Cain. Cain is not originally from Maine and also I think 2nd district is a bit sexist. I think Golden has a good chance because he comes across more like a down to Earth Mainer than Poliquin does. He has lived 2nd district Maine all his life. He has a lot of support in Lewiston/Auburn being that he is from that area and those are the largest cities in the 2nd district. Poliquin avoids answering questions from constituents and he's been getting a lot of shi t for it. Golden has military experience, which plays really well in 2nd district.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

15. Also important is that there are lots of independents in Maine

Basically, whoever can win them over wins. Hillary did well in Lewiston, but lots of people were already against her because of how the media has trashed her for decades. A local dem with a clean record would not be comparable to Clinton. Also, sexism was a big factor because Clinton's a woman. I knew many people that wouldn't vote for her just because she's a woman. Pretty sad, but that's how a lot of people are, especially religious people who are big into well defined gender roles.

[Gothmog]

6. Gina is a great candidate

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

7. Please look at Lizzie also

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

10. She'd be in my top 15...

not saying there aren't other candidates to support, just framing a discussion on prioritizing, based on your available resources.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

8. Ugh, too bad MN's primary is so freaking late. MN8 I'm sure will be on your radar down the line.

[brooklynite]

11. That's another key point...

I don't recommend burning your cash in the Primary stage, especially if you're out of State.

[flamin lib]

12. Jana Lynne Sanchez in Texas 6 has a shot.

Joe Barton's seat. Barton resigned over dick pics so it's an open seat with no incumbent. Her campaign is much the same as Ocasio-Cortez, very personal and door to door.

[brooklynite]

14. She's doing well on fundraising..but this is an R+9 "Safe R" district on my books

I have no problem with volunteering, but if you're thinking of giving money, consider which more competitive rate you didn't contribute to.

[brooklynite]

18. Update: Angie Craig (MN-2) moves to the top of the list...

She called today, and I hadn't realized her Primary opponent didn't get on the ballot. Toss-up district, Red-to-Blue, good financials, two Senate races and the Governorship to complement.

[Gothmog]

19. Colin Allred just called me on my cell

Link to tweet

These are unreal numbers for a Texas congressional campaign