The top 20 House candidates to support in 2018...

[brooklynite]

I gave a talk last week to major donors in NYC about where to focus attention (particularly financial support) among the wide range of House candidates. I use a data-driven algorithm to determine which races have the most "bang for the buck". My approach is:

Focus on Competitive Districts
• “Toss-up”, “Lean R/D”, ”Likely R/D” ratings from:
o Cook Political Report
o University of Virginia Center for Politics (Larry Sabato)
o Inside Elections (Nathan Golzales)
• Democratic competitiveness (“Partisan Vote Index” from Cook Political Report)
• Districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
• “Red to Blue” certification by DCCC
• Financial status (FEC quarterly filings)

Focus on States with complementary up- and down-ticket races
• Senate seats we need to hold: MO, ND, OH, WV, MN, IN, ME, FL
• Potential Senate pickups: AZ, NV, TN, TX
• Governorships: NM, FL, IL, ME, MI, OH, NH, AK, MN, CT
• State House and State Legislative chambers: OH, NC, FL, WI, MI

Pay attention to Critical 2020 States
• States we need to win in 2020: PA, OH, MI, FL, WI
• States we might try to win in 2020: NC, GA, AZ, TX

My Top 20 races
CA-48 Harley Rouda
CA-39 Gil Cisneros
CA-49 Mike Levin
CO-06 Jason Crow
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
IA-01 Abby Finkenauer
Il-06 Sean Casten
Il-12 Brendan Kelly
ME-02 Jared Golden
MN-02 Angie Craig
NC-09 Dan McCready
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski
OH-01 Aftab Pureval
PA-01 Scott Wallace
PA-17 Conor Lamb
PA-07 Susan Wild
TX-07 Lizzie Fletcher
TX-23 Gina Ortiz-Jones
TX-32 Colin Allred
VA-10 Jennifer Wexton

[indigoth]

1. Thanks

I would like to see this re-posted closer to election day

[brooklynite]

9. The database is dynamic and changes as new data comes in...

...I'll spend the next two weeks updating the FEC financials.

[RandySF]

2. What about Secretaries of State?

We need Democrats operating the levers in 2020.

[LeftInTX]

7. In TX the SOS is appointed.

[RandySF]

8. we desperately need SOS in OH, MI, WI, AZ, NV, CO, MN and GA

And a Dem Gov in Florida to appoint that one.

[brooklynite]

10. The talk I gave was specific to House races...

...but my database tracks the House, Senate, Governor, AG, SecState. State Treasurer and State Auditor races.

[renegade000]

3. Can't speak to other states, but I'd look at VA-02, VA-05, and VA-07 as well

I think Wexton is in a pretty good spot demographically and financially at this point, so might be worth spreading some of the cash around VA.

[Bradshaw3]

4. Good for you

I give what I can on my retirement income but am working for our congressional candidate, which even the poorest able-bodied person can do. So no excuses, we all need to do what we can.

[RandySF]

5. I think Josh Harder (CA-10) would rank up there.

[brooklynite]

11. Harder's in the mix, but CA is a less relevant state as far as Up- and Down-Ticket races

[oasis]

6. Thanks for the list. I'll put it to use.