General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf Dems could just pull in 3 to 5% more in rural areas we would be invincible
The other day I posted that I was in Dallas, TX and I must have seen 100 Beto signs and zero Cruz signs. This was happening in wealthy areas like Highland Park. Yet Beto still trails Cruz by 9 points in Texas because rural areas vote Republican at some absurd rate like 75% to 25%. Somehow the Democratic Party needs to start working on ways to peel off just a few rural voters to close the enormous gap that is overwhelming the city votes. I really think we need to consider putting a Democratic Cowboy as the VP candidate. Someone like Brian Schweitzer maybe? Having grown up in New Mexico with Democratic Gov. Bruce King who people loved in New Mexico even when the state used to be red back in the 1970's, 80's and 90's, I am telling you, if you can put someone in that knows how to shoot the breeze and talk to rural folks you can start making progress in closing the gap. I am sure there are many rural issues we could do better with as well but it takes someone who they can relate to to deliver the message.
Here are some notable Cowboy Democrats who were very popular and this is the look we need:
?w=500
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)urban areas IMO.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)There are a good chunk of rural voters who are swing voters.
Snip: When Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, he took 45 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, a state that is often seen as a bellwether for measuring the sentiments of farm country and small-town America, Obama carried the rural regions of the state. Of the states 99 counties, Obama won 53.
When Hillary Clinton lost the presidency in 2016, she secured just 33 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, Clinton lost the rural regions of the state by 30 points. The Democrat carried just six of the states 99 counties.
https://www.thenation.com/article/guy-iowa-knows-democrats-can-win-back-rural-america/
vi5
(13,305 posts)....he won it by effectively and clearly selling them on progressive policies.
The issue is that whereas he was the one who sold them during the campaign, after in office he relied on too many other folks who were not nearly as good as him to sell them on what was actually accomplished and that's where we lost those folks.
He had too much faith in the media and the various institutional bodies to do that for him and they failed. All of us.
JI7
(89,175 posts)iowa was closer in 2012 than 2008. and mccain had a history of being hostile to many iowa voters with bragging about opposition to ethanol.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)That should be our target. Screw the rural voters.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)Even it you only move the dial 1% in rural areas, often that is just enough to change the results and give us a win. I know rural people because a good chunk of my family are rural voters and I am telling you many can be courted. Any demographic can be courted. Republicans use to say Hispanics were a lost cause for them but Bush courted them and made huge inroads.
JI7
(89,175 posts)they voted for him because they agreed with many conservative policies.
they are often religious, and oppose gay rights and abortion rights.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)JI7
(89,175 posts)that might get you votes there .
frontierjoe
(29 posts)JI7
(89,175 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)frontierjoe
(29 posts)Many of those people who voted for trump were democrats .
He spent a lot of time in those areas .
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)The good thing about Nixons 1968 Southern Strategy is that it purged the Democratic Party of its racist element. Don the Con essentially did the same. I think we should concentrate on other demographics and not invite that element back.
frontierjoe
(29 posts)If we lose these states again then it's going to be repeat .
I don't want to see that and I know neither do.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Long run without trying to invite the Don the Con voter back into the fold. We will just have to agree to disagree on that point.
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)There are state and local Democratic offices and candidates in all 50 states. Support only urban areas now?
rockfordfile
(8,682 posts)Sophia4
(3,515 posts)They have to drive a lot, and when driving they listen to the radio.
We have far too few decent liberal radio voices. Not enough anyway.
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)Besides, you win more seats in Congress by focusing on rural voters. Or alternatively you can look at 2nd and 3rd tier cities (ie Allentown instead of Philadelphia) and focus on them too.
Would you rather flip a red seat blue in upstate NY or make a navy blue NYC district bluer?
(I am a fan of all of the above especially in statewide races. But you won't flip the House by focusing on urban voters.)
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Rural places DO have blue people in them and there are a lot of those places in each state. If we averaged 50 or more votes from each one, that works out to potentially hundreds of thousands of votes from those areas alone, add that to more people voting for us on heavily blue areas and we are unbeatable. President Obama seemed to use that to great effect in 2008 and 2012.
appalachiablue
(41,053 posts)vi5
(13,305 posts)...the same way it does when we trot out military Dems or religious Dems and attempt to outflank Republicans in those areas. It cedes the terms of debate to Republicans and convinces nobody.
How about we just find people who are good at selling our policies to people for whom they would be beneficial and good? That approach seemed to work o.k. for Obama. Much better than trying to be holier than thou with Lieberman as VP or more heroic than thou with John Kerry.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)Obama made inroads so it can be done: https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96782692
On Edit: I just saw your other response above. We are on the same page.
JI7
(89,175 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Just go into those areas and layout our platform. It excites blue voters in those areas and make them feel like they are not being ignored.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)Food stamps...and of course healthcare will have an impact on rural voters. Throw in some Russian paling around, who knows. Retirees are going to have 2nd thoughts.
Meadowoak
(5,517 posts)I hope this holds true in November as well.
Va Lefty
(6,252 posts)way too many trump voters are unreachable.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)We are trying to excite blue voters in those places. If we lose a red county 30,000 to 10500 instead of losing it 30,000 to 9,000, with 13000 solid Dems in the county, statewide, the numbers add up. In a state that has 67 counties, something like 45 of them will be the 30,000 to 10500 counties, that works out to around 48,000 more votes for our statewide candidate. In a lot of cases, a big name from our side just showing up in those places excite blue voters and get them to the polls.
We also need to work on urban non voters, we lose hundreds of thousands of votes in those places when people don't vote.
vercetti2021
(10,150 posts)He can pull this out
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)That is how to win, hold down your opponent's margin in those areas and blast him or her in the big cities and suburbs.
vercetti2021
(10,150 posts)He's coming back to Amarillo on the 31st. Beers with Beto. I'm excited to hear him speak again plus can also give a contribution
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Republicans in Texas must be scared shitless by him.
vercetti2021
(10,150 posts)Not only is he ambiguous. He has traits of a presidential hopefully in the future.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Our voters hold politician responsible for that stuff, republicans elect theirs.
He is a good looking guy, I hope he is passing up on the offers, suggestions and temptations. We really need another President Obama, squeaky clean on the fidelity front.
vercetti2021
(10,150 posts)He has his head on straight, he talks about his wife quite a lot on the trail. So no doubt he loves her. But hopefully Beto can be like Obama, just hopefully not take crap from the right.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)As far as dealing with the right, we need to treat them like they treat us when they win. They tell us "fuck you" and shut us out of everything. We should do the same with them, don't try to fucking get their input, just ram left wing legislation that works down republicans throats, then get loyal democrats out to vote. No more compromising.
JI7
(89,175 posts)you know what will get their votes ? it's supporting taking away kids from immigrants.
banning transgendered people from places.
and talking about how black athletes are unamerican.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)even though he puts cowboy hats on. Beto looks more rural than Cruz and that is probably part of why he is only a few points behind now.
JI7
(89,175 posts)it's the liberals who move there because there is more affordable housing. and the newer americans.
texas is going through changes where it will be more favorable for democrats. not sure how long it take but it's moving in the right direction.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)We want to get the blue voters in those places who are demoralized because they are outnumbered and feel that our candidate ignore their areas excited. There is a large number of those places, all we need to do is get 50-100 more votes out of each one.
JI7
(89,175 posts)you just have to tell them to vote. even if they lose every fucking time. just vote.
YessirAtsaFact
(2,064 posts)Nm
JI7
(89,175 posts)crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)I haven't listened to (any) radio in over a decade. My drives consist of downloaded music playing through an aux cable.
Focusing on AM radio ads will be cheap, but they won't reach younger voters.
JI7
(89,175 posts)but they voted for pro corporate pro free trade Ron Johnson over Feingold.
Quixote1818
(28,904 posts)If we can't peel off 5 people out of 100 then we suck. We are completely out of touch with all of them.
JI7
(89,175 posts)if they don't it's because they have different interests.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Or send really big democratic hitters in to excite the BLUE voters there? Looking at your posts, I am afraid that republican voters and republican politicians understand one thing better than us, they understand that you need to excite your voters even when you are going to get pasted in an area, simply because that keeps down your opponent's winning margin in those area. We go into red areas and try to get 100 more blue votes in each one, voters that feel outnumbered and ignored and don't bother to vote - go and tell them that their vote is important.
JI7
(89,175 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)way places and we did not. All we need to do in those places is get 50-100 more votes in statewide races. I think such a thing is doable.
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)affair, with not enough rebranding done after six years out of office and shifting conditions. A loss to learn from to avoid repeating it. Tammy Baldwin is running a much better campaign.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Our candidates don't go into red areas to get the blue people there excited. If our campaigns pull an average of 50 more votes from each of those places, we win statewide races, if that had happened for Hillary in my state of Florida and Pennsylvania, she would be President now and the country would be safe from harm.
appleannie1943
(1,303 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Solid argument.
One reason I like your thoughts is that they are a group that is somewhat tuned in yet vote overwhelmingly against us. A lot of that is because they arent tuned into us and we have a somewhat missing presence. With the right moves it could quickly be higher of a percentage change than you mention, I think. The possible swing in electoral votes would be noticeable with those percentages.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)And we don't have to convince them to vote Democratic or hope they don't turn around and switch back to vote Republican because their brother-in-law got to them in the car on the way to the polls.
Not saying we shouldn't try to also get rural voters, too - we need to get every vote we can. But we shouldn't neglect our base while chasing around after voters we have to convince to vote with us and then pray they stay with us.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)My area is a good example. Democrats are outnumbered by around 40,000 votes. There are 50,000 independents. In 2016 Trump came to my area, no one from Hillary's campaign did. I could totally sense and see the loss of excitement on our side, I know solid democrats who did not bother to vote because they did not think it mattered (not the no difference shit, but the we are outnumbered and it doesn't look like anyone on our side care to come in and cheer us up difference). There are around 50 counties in Florida like my county, Hillary lost Florida by something like 130,000-150,000 votes, if she had gotten 3000 more in counties like mine, we could be looking at an entirely different world today. I think that is the point the OP is making, we will never get true red voters, but we can excite more true blue voters and also get some indies that were on the fence to fall our way. BTW, in my county, we had a Black ex military, ex police captain running for County Sheriff, imagine if Hillary, or Bill or Tim or some other big Dem hitter had come into the region and stood on a campaign stage with him giving him support while helping Hillary?
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)Either neglect the base or court rural voters? Obviously you can do both.
People of color live in rural areas too, as you know. Turnout for these voters is essential if Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina are going to vote blue consistently.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)Nothing binary about it.
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)Did you read all of mine?
In some of your posts the importance of strengthening white voter support for Democrats is minimized, or described as a trade-off compared to black voters, with some disparagment of the voters who live in so-called Trump Country.
In this thread, I asserted the importance of rural voters of color (a big voting block in the states that are potentially becoming purple, in the South and elsewhere). Tammy Baldwin and Bernie Sanders have recently campaigned together in Wisconsin, where we have all these factors of rural voters of color (limited past outreach to Native American, Hmong American, and Latino voters) and rural white voters who turned out bigger for Sanders than for Clinton. If Wisconsin at least is going to return to the Democratic column, the 2016 lessons about voter demographics and turnout need to be heeded.
The key to victory in 2018 is to recognize that each state has a different demographic mix, but no block can be ignored or minimized. The national, state, and local races are all too important, and Democratic outreach strategies have made the mistake in the past of not taking each block seriously enough. That's the disagreement I have with some of your posts, when assertions are made about the importance of one voting block versus another. The 50%+1 strategy for narrow wins in national elections needs to be replaced by a new version of the 50-state strategy, and that's what the DNC (including Bernie Sanders) is working to accomplish. Clearly to me at least, this is a better approach than prioritizing one demographic at the expense of another.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)Your post clearly addressed only the specific previous post to which you were responding - which you either misread or didn't read at sll - not all of my previous posts, as you now claim instead of just acknowledging that you misunderstood what I'd written.
But it's nice to know that you are paying such close attention to what I write, although it would be nice if you didn't so blatantly mischaracterize what I've said.
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)Not surprised. Peace out.
RainCaster
(10,682 posts)That's all it would take
TheFarseer
(9,308 posts)Reliability goes to GOP by a 80-20 margin and you can barely get a Democrat to run. Most of the voters are voting against abortion and pc culture and not any real issues.
There are a lot of issues to run on. Medicare for all should be very popular for all the self employed. There is no love for corporations and billionaires out here. An infrastructure bill should be popular. Public utilities are popular. Price supports for commodities like corn and research to make biofuels more efficient are Democratic ideas and should be popular. Maybe things will get bad enough with a struggling farm economy to make people vote on economic issues and not just vote for Jesus
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)It's those last 5% or so that politicians on both sides fight for.
It's why we get sick of seeing the same damn ads over and over, both on television and on Internet.
They aren't trying to influence you and me. They are fighting for that 5 out of 100.